Why Allies Aren’t Following on Iran | The President’s Inbox

Why It Matters

A prolonged Hormuz shutdown could destabilize global energy markets and expose cracks in U.S. alliance cohesion, forcing Europe to reconsider its security commitments in the Middle East.

Key Takeaways

• European allies refuse direct military involvement in Iran conflict.
• Germany permits U.S. base use but avoids committing forces.
• Japan offers diplomatic support, constrained by pacifist constitution.
• Strait of Hormuz closure threatens global oil prices and economies.
• Prolonged war could force Europe to reconsider maritime security commitments.

Summary

The President’s Inbox examined President Trump’s demand that allies help reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s missile strikes shut the waterway, a chokepoint through which one‑fifth of global oil flows. While the United States frames the operation as "Operation Epic Fury," European capitals and Tokyo have signaled reluctance to commit combat forces, preferring diplomatic condemnation over direct engagement.

European leaders, especially Germany, have allowed the United States to use their bases at minimal cost but have stopped short of deploying naval assets into the Gulf. Germany’s Chancellor Merz publicly rejected the war as "not our war," citing domestic coalition concerns, while the broader European bloc has issued a joint statement condemning Iran without pledging troops. In Asia, Japan’s Prime Minister Takeuchi balanced flattery toward Trump with a reminder of constitutional limits that restrict offensive deployments, offering only symbolic support.

Notable remarks highlighted the diplomatic tightrope: Trump praised Takeuchi as the only leader who could bring peace, while German officials emphasized the economic burden of hosting U.S. forces. The conversation also noted the political fallout in Europe, where right‑wing parties sympathetic to Trump are distancing themselves from the Iran conflict to protect electoral prospects.

The closure of the Hormuz Strait threatens to spike oil and fertilizer prices across Europe, strain the already fragile Ukraine‑aid supply chain, and force a reassessment of European maritime security postures. If the conflict endures, Washington may have to confront an alliance gap, compelling Europe to weigh costly naval deployments against domestic political backlash.

Original Description

Kristi Govella, senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the Center on the United States and Europe and Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and Transatlantic Relations at the Brookings Institution, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how Europe and Japan are reacting to Operation Epic Fury.

Find us

Why Allies Aren’t Following on Iran, With Kristi Govella and Constanze Stelzenmüller - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/why-allies-arent-following-on-iran

The President’s Inbox - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox

Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/65u6jcFyV5BnlVhhzSi7UJ

Host

Jim Lindsay

Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Episode Guests

Kristi Govella

Senior Adviser and Japan Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Constanze Stelzenmüller

Director, Center on the United States and Europe and Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and Transatlantic Relations, the Brookings Institution

00:00 - Introduction to The President's Inbox

00:00:54 - Global Reactions to Operation Epic Fury

00:01:40 - European Unity and Base Usage Constraints

00:03:40 - Domestic Politics and Rise of the Right

00:06:40 - Japan’s Response and Constitutional Limits

00:09:40 - The Trump-Takichi Summit Outcomes

00:12:30 - Persian Gulf Security & Energy Imports

00:14:00 - Impact on Ukraine Aid and Weapons Supply

00:17:10 - Feasibility of Maritime Protection

00:20:00 - Japan’s Energy Security Challenges

00:23:00 - Strategic Deals and US Dependency

00:25:00 - European Hedging & New Trade Agreements

00:27:50 - Japan's Security Ties and No "Plan B"

00:30:40 - Long-term Risks to US Soft Power

Related Content

Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks at the Munich Security Conference - https://www.whitehouse.gov/videos/vice-president-jd-vance-delivers-remarks-at-the-munich-security-conference/

Secretary of State Marco Rubio Delivers Remarks to the Munich Security Conference - https://ch.usembassy.gov/secretary-of-state-marco-rubios-remarks-at-the-munich-security-conference/

G7 Statement on Support to Partners in the Middle East - https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_02199.html

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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