Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Restrictions, AI Emerges as Key Driver of Global Trade Growth: McKinsey

Why It Matters

AI‑centric trade is redefining supply‑chain dynamics and creating new growth avenues, forcing firms and policymakers to adapt to a technology‑driven global market.

Key Takeaways

• AI hardware shipments grew ~40% in 2025.
• AI-related trade accounts for one‑third of 2025 growth.
• US added half of new data‑center capacity worldwide.
• Trade shift concentrates in Taiwan, South Korea, Southeast Asia.
• Geopolitical alignment reshapes AI equipment supply chains.

Pulse Analysis

The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is fundamentally altering the composition of global trade. Whereas decades of growth were anchored in traditional manufacturing—automobiles, textiles, and consumer goods—today’s cross‑border flows are dominated by semiconductors, servers, and networking gear needed for data‑centres. This transition is reflected in the near‑40% jump in AI‑related hardware shipments in 2025, a metric that now drives roughly one‑third of total trade expansion. Companies that once focused on low‑cost assembly are pivoting toward high‑value, technology‑intensive components, reshaping profit margins and investment priorities.

Geopolitical considerations have become inseparable from these supply‑chain shifts. The concentration of AI component production in Taiwan, South Korea and parts of Southeast Asia aligns trade patterns with politically aligned blocs, while the United States’ surge in data‑centre capacity—accounting for about 50% of global additions—has amplified its import demand. Even as tariffs and export controls tighten, especially on advanced chips, the overall momentum persists, underscoring AI’s strategic importance that outweighs traditional barriers. China’s reliance on domestic fabrication and Europe’s niche role in lithography equipment illustrate a fragmented yet resilient ecosystem.

Looking ahead, sustained capital deployment in semiconductor fabs and next‑generation data‑centres signals that AI will remain a cornerstone of trade growth. Firms must evaluate exposure to regional supply risks, diversify sourcing, and invest in AI‑ready logistics to capture emerging opportunities. Policymakers, meanwhile, are likely to balance security concerns with the economic incentives of fostering AI supply‑chain robustness, potentially reshaping trade agreements and export regimes. In this evolving landscape, understanding the interplay between technology demand and geopolitical forces is essential for strategic decision‑making.