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Weaker Trend Continues Despite Initial Relief Rally #sp500 #analysis

IG (Singapore)
IG (Singapore)•Mar 24, 2026

Why It Matters

The analysis warns that lingering bearish technical patterns combined with fewer Fed cuts and a stronger dollar could pressure equities, making the identified support levels and upcoming PMI data pivotal for risk management.

Key Takeaways

  • •S&P 500 rallied then fell after Iran denied talks.
  • •Index remains below 200‑period MA, sustaining bearish technical bias.
  • •Hourly chart shows lower highs/lows; 6,500 Fibonacci level critical.
  • •Fed cut outlook trimmed to one cut, boosting dollar, hurting gold.
  • •Watch support at 4,500, then 4,100 and 4,000 amid PMI data.

Summary

The video analyzes the S&P 500’s recent volatility, noting a brief pre‑market rally sparked by rumored peace talks that evaporated after Iran denied any discussions with the United States. The analyst emphasizes that despite the temporary lift, the index remains entrenched in a medium‑term downtrend.

Key technical signals reinforce a bearish outlook: the S&P 500 is trading below its 200‑period moving average, hourly bars are forming lower highs and lower lows, and weekly charts display multiple bearish pin bars. The market is testing the 23.8% Fibonacci retracement near the 6,500 level, while the price recently broke a rising trend line, further weakening momentum.

The commentary links macro factors to the technical picture, highlighting the Federal Reserve’s revised forecast of only one rate cut this year, higher oil prices, and a stronger U.S. dollar that have depressed gold, now on track for its worst monthly performance in years. Upcoming U.S. and Eurozone PMI releases could trigger additional moves, and the analyst flags short‑term support at 4,500, with deeper levels at 4,100 and the psychological 4,000 mark.

For investors, the convergence of technical weakness and tightening monetary expectations suggests caution; positioning near the identified support zones and monitoring PMI data will be crucial for managing risk in a market still vulnerable to geopolitical and policy shocks.

Original Description

Markets reacted to US–Iran developments, but price action still suggests a weaker trend for now.
Key levels are being tested, with macro data coming up this week.
What’s your read on this move?
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#IGSingapore #IGTrading #oil #gold #trading #sgfinance
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