Extreme Fear and No Bounces Signal Bear Market
Signs of a bear market (as noted in November) are when we get "extreme fear" and no bounces occur. The Fear & Greed Index is good at identifying local lows in bull markets, not identifying macro lows in bear markets. https://t.co/hIK07HalUq
Tight Liquidity and Declining Interest Predicted Crypto Crash
Plenty of events leading up to the crypto crash on 10/10 in the years before it. Liquidity conditions have been tight for years, and social interest in crypto has only dropped the last few years. The flight to safety had...
Bitcoin's YTD ROI Dips in Feb, Rebounds March, Falls Thereafter
When looking at Bitcoin YTD ROI in midterm years, Bitcoin usually is weak for a good portion of February, with slight a bounce into early March, then a continued decline into April/May https://t.co/Ks4GhJZnOF
Liquidity Signals Business Cycle End in 2‑3 Years
Interesting read, certainly something to consider. Even somewhat aligns with the business cycle views I expressed here: https://t.co/Ao19CL9d25 I think there is a reason to believe the current business cycle will end within the next 2-3 years from a liquidity point of...
BTC's Next Local Top Expected After Late‑February Weakness
Found when the next local top for BTC will be (after maybe a little more weakness into late February)
From Crypto Scams to AI Bots: Reply Evolution
Anyone remember back when the replies were crypto scam bots? Now they are just AI bots
Tight Liquidity Drives Narrow Crypto Leadership Until Crisis
We have now published the ITC Liquidity Risk Metric. You can see that liquidity conditions have been tight for years which is why this past crypto bull market was characterized by narrow leadership. Historically, a crisis is what leads to looser monetary...
Euphoria Unwinds, Quality Assets Outshine Speculation
I have mentioned this chart a few times in the past, but it does really go to show just how extreme things got the last few years. The chart is SPX/(UNRATE^2)*USIRYY*USINTR Unravelling things after extreme euphoria is never an easy process. As things...
All Crypto Eventually Funnels Back to Bitcoin
Basically everything in the crypto ecosystem seems to just eventually bleed to BTC. There is a lesson in that.
Midterm Crypto Fraud Prunes Industry for Long-Term Health
So much fraud in the crypto industry unravels in midterm years. It sucks, but it helps the industry over the long-term.
Some BTC Treasuries Exploit Shareholders Like Altcoins
Not all BTC treasury companies are bad. But many of them do nothing more than try and extract as much value as they can from their shareholders, exactly how many of the altcoins they have criticized did.
Macro Risk Memo Extends Beyond Crypto After BTC Drop
In January, we outlined a late-cycle restrictive regime and leaned cautious on risk. Since then, BTC has declined materially and leadership has narrowed. The February Macro Risk Memo expands the framework beyond crypto into broader macro. Now live: https://t.co/QKQMRbbeKi https://t.co/b0h9q5CS5C
Bitcoin's Share Grows as Stablecoin Dominance Rises
Bitcoin Dominance (Excluding Stablecoins) continues to trend higher. The reason BTC Dominance (Including Stablecoins) is struggling is because Stablecoin Dominance is going up (in line with the tweet below). https://t.co/GcWje8T5Bm
Separate Bullish Hype From Genuine Risk‑aware Market Insight
Most influencers on CT are just permabull price cheerleaders. Nothing wrong with that as over the long term, bears sound smart and bulls make money. But there is a difference between a price cheerleader and someone trying to manage risk in...
All Crypto Assets Eventually Bleed Into Bitcoin
Over a long enough period of time, even treasury companies will likely bleed to Bitcoin, just like altcoins, mining equities, and crypto exchange stocks all eventually bleed to BTC. The only reason anything else in the industry exists is because of...
Bitcoin's YTD ROI Beats Historical Midterm Average
Bitcoin YTD ROI compared to the average of prior midterms (with one standard deviation shown). https://t.co/GZ5yIanYlj
Bitcoin Hits NZ$108k, Double Its USD Price
The price of BTC a year and a half ago was $60k. But this past week it was 108,000 in New Zealand dollars https://t.co/MozL3OZ7jl
Bitcoin Dips Beneath Realized and Balanced Prices in Bear Markets
Historically, Bitcoin goes below both the realized price and the balanced price in bear markets. https://t.co/17nzcZhxAC
Stablecoin Dominance Set to Surge This Summer
After the current consolidation, it looks like stablecoin dominance will go higher into the summer months https://t.co/cT3VZILWnS
Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook: Key Takeaways From Interview
Check out my interview with @CryptoMichNL where we talk about Bitcoin, and the outlook for 2026: https://t.co/73CosbaVvp
2026 Market Outlook: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stocks, Metals
Check out my interview with @davidlin_TV where we talk about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stocks, Metals, and an outlook for 2026! https://t.co/JO2REs0o2o
ETH Expected to Hover Low Until 2026, Fair Value $1,987
Good chance #ETH spends some time in its lower regression band in 2026 before expanding out of it in 2027/2028. According to this model, the current "fair value" of ETH is $1987. https://t.co/nXy81dPdhm
Bitcoin Overtakes Gold in Valuation as of December 2024
When you look at the valuation of Bitcoin against Gold, Bitcoin topped in December 2024. https://t.co/0WcA3N54Ze
Bitcoin’s 2019 Dip Mirrors Today’s Slow Decline
If you are bored by #BTC price action, this is also how it felt in 2019. Bitcoin topped in June 2019 just before QT ended in August and then the market just slowly trended down for a while. However, the drop was...
Bitcoin's Speculative Hype Masks Underlying
Bitcoin Dubious Speculation https://t.co/s4hG9GQtBV
Ethereum's Hype Masks Questionable Speculative Risks
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation https://t.co/TTduI6ve2o
Altcoins Proved Critics Wrong: Unexpected Market Surge
Why So Many People Were Wrong About Altcoins https://t.co/Dv9HsIgqhV
True Wealth Comes From Solid Assets, Not Altcoin Hype
So many people have held on to worthless altcoins for so long on the elusive promise of alt season. However, macro conditions/monetary policy were not favorable this cycle for that. As all the alt season calls get quietly pushed out to 2026...
Alt Season Mirrors a Precious Metal Rally
Alt season is actually precious metal season
Bear Markets: Prime Time for Building Foundations
Bear markets are for building
Bitcoin May Rally 2026; Altcoin Hype Irrelevant
There are reasons you can make for why Bitcoin could be bullish in early 2026. But “my shitcoin hasn’t gone to a new high yet” is not one of them
Bitcoin's Bull‑Bear Cycles Consistently Span About 1060 Days
The last 3 cycles for Bitcoin all lasted around the same amount of time. 2015-2017: 1067 days 2018-2021: 1059 days 2022-2025: 1062 days Sometimes the simplest indicators are the best. https://t.co/VKbWLEcZiT
Steady Investing Beats Chasing Penny Stocks and Altcoins
Investing should be boring. The idea that the only way to get rich is by buying penny stocks or altcoins is absurd. Bitcoin went up 8x this market cycle. That was an incredible return in only 3 years.
Blue‑chip Focus Outperforms Across Market Cycles
Most people would have fared much better this market cycle if they had just stuck to the blue chips of each asset class.
Bitcoin Mirrors 2019 Bear Market Amid QT End
Bitcoin is still tracking the 2019 bear market (which also coincided with an end to QT) https://t.co/HX69GZP7vb
Join NFA Live with CoinBureau and NewsAsset
Join us for NFA live w/ @coinbureau and @NewsAsset https://t.co/VZP0ppdDvB
Bitcoin's Bear Market Deepens, Signals Prolonged Downturn
#Bitcoin: The Bear Market Blues https://t.co/geezz6QDuX
Bitcoin Expected to Dip Below Prior Low First
Guessing we may see #Bitcoin sweep the prior low before any major relief bounce. https://t.co/ddvpNMZXxn
Key Factors Behind Bitcoin's Recent Price Decline
Why is Bitcoin Dropping? https://t.co/pU8At0PMtk
Bitcoin’s Math Reveals Elegant, Trustless Financial Design
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 65) https://t.co/6UUOxcrLMR
Master Crypto Basics with CoinBureau’s Expert Guide
Crypto Fundamentals with @coinbureau https://t.co/aBYB9MDhax
Push Bitcoin Dominance Over 60% Again
Send #BTC dominance back above 60% https://t.co/IrIudcreSV
ALT/BTC Pairs Expected to Decline Through Year‑end
I think #ALT / #BTC pairs will continue to head down into the end of the year. Remember, last cycle, ALT / BTC pairs capitulated and found a low about 1 month after QT ended. https://t.co/BFOgNB1LsL
Crypto Party 2025 Hits Amsterdam: Into The Cryptoverse
Into The Cryptoverse Party 2025 - Amsterdam https://t.co/sXwVm17U1h
Determining Bitcoin’s Primary Driver: Price or Adoption?
What comes first for Bitcoin?
Attending Bitcoin MENA for the First Time
First time at Bitcoin MENA https://t.co/IyyjlyEw9U
Crypto Social Growth: What Works and What Fails
Great speaking with @coinbureau and @TheBonnieChang at Binance Blockchain week about what works and what doesn’t when growing social media channels in crypto https://t.co/WkNMFG9pCl
Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
The video examines Bitcoin’s on‑chain risk metric, a composite indicator that normalizes a suite of on‑chain data points—such as the MVRV‑Z score, HODL waves, supply‑profit‑loss ratios, and market‑cap‑to‑thermo‑cap ratios—onto a 0‑to‑1 scale. By tracking where the metric sits relative to...
Bitcoin On-Chain Data Meets AI at Binance Week
Enjoyed speaking at Binance blockchain week about Bitcoin on-chain data and AI https://t.co/Aex0c0WSpK
Bitcoin's Bear Market Defies Traditional Patterns
Bitcoin: A Different Kind of Bear Market? https://t.co/Y8rYSgQQ46
