Crypto Influencers Claim Bears, but Many Secretly Bullish
If everyone is supposedly bearish then: Why do I get hundreds of comments saying "I can't wait for you to be wrong" on every video I post expressing a bearish view? Why do dozens of influencers tweet about me weekly laughing and saying that BTC follows M2, ISM, etc. and that this is a 5 year cycle or supercycle? Why is it that every time I join a twitter space, the collective response is for people to label me a doomer for having the audacity to suggest midterm years are not great for BTC? It's easy to pretend like everyone is a bear, but one look at plenty of influencers on this app would show the opposite. I see a lot of influencers who missed the top and faded the four year cycle now desperately want the market to bail them out. I see influencers that shilled altcoins for 4 years because they thought alt season was coming and now they desperately are searching for any reason that the market won't go lower. Social interest in crypto is still trending down. Monetary policy remains restrictive, and macro headwinds continue to exist for the first half of 2026. BTC always forms lows in February of midterm years, then has countertrend rallies that lasted a few weeks, before the market then drops again. No amount of mental gymnastics will change how the market cycles tend to work. We can keep pretending that everyone is a bear, but one look at the comment section on any of my bearish tweets would prove otherwise.
Bitcoin's Top Hits Late Business Cycle, Bleeding to Gold
The reason this four year cycle top for Bitcoin "feels different" is because this is the first major top BTC has had during a late business cycle environment. It explains why there was no alt season, why BTC has been bleeding...
Predictive Paradox: Market Expectations Defy Themselves
This shows the mental gymnastics I keep referring to. First it was "If everyone believes in the four year cycle then it won't happen." Then BTC still topped in Q4 2025 anyways. Then, in January when BTC was $98k, it was "Oh since...
Bitcoin: Preparing for the Next Leg Down
The video warns that Bitcoin is entering the next leg down of the current bare market, drawing on historical patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022. The presenter highlights that each mid‑term year typically sees a February low followed by a...
SPX's Fleeting Spikes Fuel Trader Indecision
At the beginning of recent weeks, SPX wicks up and then as the week goes on, the gains are given back. Certainly a way for the market to keep people continuously second-guessing their resolve https://t.co/vJ5eWqHZA8
Bitcoin and Gold Yielded Comparable Returns Since 2017
For years, Gold bugs laughed at Bitcoiners on 30% drops and said "sOmE sToRe Of VaLuE" Then Gold dropped 30% and Bitcoiners said the same thing back. The truth is that whether you bought BTC or Gold in late 2017, your return...
One Green Month Won’t Reverse Bitcoin’s Gold‑Bleeding Trend
Bitcoin has been bleeding to Gold since December 2024. A single green monthly candle after 7 red consecutive monthly candles does not automatically mean the trend is over. https://t.co/zvWxXLqwla
Business Cycles Repeat, Even when We Think Otherwise
Business cycles have a way of repeating themselves, despite many feeling like this time is different. https://t.co/BhO6huMktT
Expect Major SPX Lows This Year, Relief Rallies Ahead
Currently down 7%. Look for major lows in SPX later this year, with relief rallies along the way https://t.co/CUfogOJhN0
Bitcoin Dips in Feb, Rebounds March, Wanes April
Bitcoin YTD ROI compared to the average of prior midterm years, with 1 standard deviation. While Bitcoin tends to find lows in February, and strength in March, weakness tends to show up again as April approaches https://t.co/AbF5bsnJLy
Bitcoin May Dip Early, Echoing 2014 April Weakness
If Bitcoin continues to follow 2014, then the next leg down could be sooner than most expect. Usually there is weakness by Bitcoin going into April of midterm years. https://t.co/b2nr8PdPDQ
Rally Predictions Shift when Bitcoin Actually Moves
When Bitcoin is at lows and you say that a rally will likely happen in March that will form a lower high, people generally agree that it "makes sense." But once the rally begins, it becomes difficult for many to remain...
Bitcoin Likely to Hit Gold‑ratio Lows This Year
Bitcoin when valued against Gold will likely drop to the range lows later this year https://t.co/SG0JbjS4Lv
All Crypto Projects Ultimately Converge Back to Bitcoin
Over a long enough period of time, everything in the cryptoverse eventually just bleeds back to Bitcoin. People have engineered all sorts of different things, but after a cycle or two, it all just bleeds back to the king.
Bitcoin Spikes to 1900+ Then Plunges 20%
Since everyone likes indicators... The last time I hit 1900+ in blitz, Bitcoin then dropped 20%. https://t.co/7cqOkSWhPz
Powell: Rates at Borderline Restrictive, Near Neutral
Powell: "You can characterize the rate as in the high end of neutral of you can characterize it as mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive. It is somewhere around the borderline of restrictive and not."
Powell: Oil Price Spike Lifts Short‑term Inflation Expectations
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
Powell Warns: Labor Demand Softens
Powell: "Job gains have remained low." "Labor demand has clearly softened as well." "The median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.4% at the end of this year." "Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
Stocks Have Now Dropped 5% - What's Next?
U.S. equities have fallen roughly 5% from recent highs with the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow showing early signs of a broader correction; the presenter argues a full 10% pullback remains the most likely near-term outcome though it may play out...
Understanding How Risk Cascades Across Markets
My march newsletter is out, discussing how risk cascades through markets. You can read it here: https://t.co/nUGy8smj9y https://t.co/jVX8Wirrq2
Realistic Bitcoin Outlook Isn’t
If you want to follow a permabull, go follow a permabull. Stop saying people are doomers just for being realistic about how midterm years normally go for Bitcoin.
SPX Down 5%; Watch for 10% Trigger
SPX has already dropped 5%. If it continues to drop to 10%+, we run the risk of entering into the negative feedback loop I have mentioned. As of right now, the negative feedback loop has not happened, as layoffs/initial claims remain...
Bitcoin March Rallies Align with U.S. Midterm Cycles
Check out this video, which was published back in February. While many often get excited about counter-trend rallies by Bitcoin and dunk on the bears, the March rally has happened *every* midterm year.
Dollar Surge Revives 2018 Liquidity Squeeze, Hurting Risk Assets
DXY starting to move up just as it did in early 2018. This threatens to tighten global liquidity even further, which will continue to be a macro headwind for risk assets https://t.co/70JRVsUDZk
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026
The video provides a broad overview of our solar system, describing its central star—the Sun—and the myriad objects bound by its gravity, including eight major planets, their moons, dwarf planets, asteroids, and comets. It emphasizes the Sun’s role as the...
Even the Skeptics Admit the Bear Market’s Over
The guys who told you the bear market would never happen want you to know why the bear market is over
Bitcoin's Gold Ratio Returns to 2017 Levels
Bitcoin is at the same valuation against Gold as it was in late 2017. https://t.co/fTHR4B9KIA
Bitcoin Rises Longer than It Falls in Bear Markets
In bear markets, Bitcoin will often spend more time going up than going down. When it does go down, it goes down very quickly, sets a low, then trends up for a few weeks/months before going lower. You can see the change...
Analysts Call Others “Chart Squigglers” Yet Use Their Own Indicators
They reduce others to "chart squigglers" for showing macro market trends while simultaneously showing their own indicators and squiggles to justify short-term price action. Hypocrisy at its finest
Narratives Shift: Critics Adopt Once‑dismissed BTC Comparison
I love how the same guys who told me I was dumb for comparing this BTC cycle to 2019 in the bull market are now all relying on the 2019 comparison in the bear market. Just another example of people ignoring...
Bitcoin: Simulation Confirmed
The video revisits a forecast made a month earlier that Bitcoin would hit a February low, stage a brief rally in early March, and then see that rally fade. The creator argues the price action unfolded exactly as predicted, reinforcing...
Predicting Short Rally, but Bulls Ignore and Fall
When you tell people a month in advance that BTC will rally in the 1st week of March, but that it will be short-lived and to fade it. And this is the response on the day of the lower high. And every...
Bitcoin’s Midterm Dip Isn’t Doom, It’s Reality
For months, any bearish take is written off as being a "doomer" Bitcoin is doing *what it always does* in midterm years. There is a difference between being a doomer and being realistic. The price cheerleaders are unable to separate the two.
Predicting Bull Sentiment Beats Market Forecasts
Imagine telling people it’s a bear market 4 months ago. Then saying BTC will rally in early March and that all the supercycle guys will lose their minds and that they will then attack me. Predicting the toxic permabull emotions is 100x...
Seasonality Reveals Bitcoin Weakness Amid Apathy, Headwinds
If you want to understand my thesis on Bitcoin you can read this report published in January when Bitcoin was trading at $97k. My views are not just constrained to "seasonality." Bitcoin topped on apathy, and macro headwinds remain. I use seasonality...
Weak SPX Mirrors BTC: Market Correction Looms
SPX continues to be weak, as the market has not really durably moved higher in months. Same thing happened with BTC, and it eventually led to a correction https://t.co/P0cSGNfg90
Bitcoin Always Rallies First Week of March in Midterms
If your quant who has been bullish on BTC from $126k to $60k is dunking on people because of this candle, then you need to find a new quant. Bitcoin has *always* rallied in the first week of March in...
Twitter Space Predicts Early March Market Rally
Literally was on this guys twitter space multiple times the last few days telling everyone to expect this rally in early March. I’m sure he can vouch
Hidden Early-March Rally They're Trying to Hide
This is what the guys dunking on me don’t want you to see “Rallies into early March”
Crypto Gurus Miss Early March Rally Prediction
Imagine telling people it’s a bear market, then saying we would get a rally in early March, and the crypto gurus still come out to dunk 🤣🤣🤣
Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 68)
In this episode of “The Beauty of Mathematics,” Ben Jenkowan examines the current state of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on total market capitalization and the dominant role of Bitcoin. He notes that the crypto asset class now totals roughly $2.3 trillion,...
Crypto Influencers Must Adopt Honest, Sustainable Business Models
90% of crypto influencers now need to now find a new business model that does not just involve them pretending to like a project that they were paid to promote allowing them to dump their "allocations" on the people that...
Bitcoin May
Often times, risk assets sell off, then bounce as major conflicts start. If a rally for Bitcoin does materialize, it will likely yield a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022. Bear markets tend to take a while to...
ISM only Matters when Bitcoin Moves Opposite Direction
No one cared about the ISM when it was dropping for years while BTC went up. Now that BTC is going down and the ISM has gone up, it’s suddenly the indicator everyone cares about
Bitcoin's Market Cycle Explained on Proof of Thought
Check out my interview on the Proof of Thought Podcast discussing the Bitcoin market cycle https://t.co/oMYpgNgAwo
Crypto YouTube Viewership Drops Steadily Since 2021
This chart shows views to various crypto youtube channels. Retail interest (at least in terms of watching these channels) has declined since 2021. https://t.co/D6n1vfcPVF
Stop Blaming, Embrace Empty Boat Mindset in Markets
CT tends to find narratives to support price action, especially if price goes in a direction that they did not expect. It is common to want to take out your anger on others, and I think everyone generally struggles with that...
BTC Dominance Climbs Sans Stablecoins, Falls with Them
Excluding stablecoins, #BTC dominance continues rising. Including stables, BTC dominance has dropped because stablecoin dominance has gone higher https://t.co/G45aDPssSW
Crypto's Looted Phase Sets Stage for Bottoming
The crypto industry has essentially just been looted by people pretending to like the technology. As sentiment fades, they will all pretend like it never happened and they will distance themselves from it. And that will ultimately set-up the bottoming process.
