Recent Posts
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Macro Risk Memo Extends Beyond Crypto After BTC Drop
In January, we outlined a late-cycle restrictive regime and leaned cautious on risk. Since then, BTC has declined materially and leadership has narrowed. The February Macro Risk Memo expands the framework beyond crypto into broader macro. Now live: https://t.co/QKQMRbbeKi https://t.co/b0h9q5CS5C
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Bitcoin's Share Grows as Stablecoin Dominance Rises
Bitcoin Dominance (Excluding Stablecoins) continues to trend higher. The reason BTC Dominance (Including Stablecoins) is struggling is because Stablecoin Dominance is going up (in line with the tweet below). https://t.co/GcWje8T5Bm
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Separate Bullish Hype From Genuine Risk‑aware Market Insight
Most influencers on CT are just permabull price cheerleaders. Nothing wrong with that as over the long term, bears sound smart and bulls make money. But there is a difference between a price cheerleader and someone trying to manage risk in...
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 13, 2026
All Crypto Assets Eventually Bleed Into Bitcoin
Over a long enough period of time, even treasury companies will likely bleed to Bitcoin, just like altcoins, mining equities, and crypto exchange stocks all eventually bleed to BTC. The only reason anything else in the industry exists is because of...
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Bitcoin's YTD ROI Beats Historical Midterm Average
Bitcoin YTD ROI compared to the average of prior midterms (with one standard deviation shown). https://t.co/GZ5yIanYlj
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Bitcoin Hits NZ$108k, Double Its USD Price
The price of BTC a year and a half ago was $60k. But this past week it was 108,000 in New Zealand dollars https://t.co/MozL3OZ7jl
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Bitcoin Dips Beneath Realized and Balanced Prices in Bear Markets
Historically, Bitcoin goes below both the realized price and the balanced price in bear markets. https://t.co/17nzcZhxAC
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Jan 7, 2026
Stablecoin Dominance Set to Surge This Summer
After the current consolidation, it looks like stablecoin dominance will go higher into the summer months https://t.co/cT3VZILWnS
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Jan 7, 2026
Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook: Key Takeaways From Interview
Check out my interview with @CryptoMichNL where we talk about Bitcoin, and the outlook for 2026: https://t.co/73CosbaVvp
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Jan 2, 2026
2026 Market Outlook: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stocks, Metals
Check out my interview with @davidlin_TV where we talk about Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stocks, Metals, and an outlook for 2026! https://t.co/JO2REs0o2o
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 31, 2025
ETH Expected to Hover Low Until 2026, Fair Value $1,987
Good chance #ETH spends some time in its lower regression band in 2026 before expanding out of it in 2027/2028. According to this model, the current "fair value" of ETH is $1987. https://t.co/nXy81dPdhm
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 31, 2025
Bitcoin Overtakes Gold in Valuation as of December 2024
When you look at the valuation of Bitcoin against Gold, Bitcoin topped in December 2024. https://t.co/0WcA3N54Ze
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 29, 2025
Bitcoin’s 2019 Dip Mirrors Today’s Slow Decline
If you are bored by #BTC price action, this is also how it felt in 2019. Bitcoin topped in June 2019 just before QT ended in August and then the market just slowly trended down for a while. However, the drop was...
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 29, 2025
Bitcoin's Speculative Hype Masks Underlying
Bitcoin Dubious Speculation https://t.co/s4hG9GQtBV
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 26, 2025
Ethereum's Hype Masks Questionable Speculative Risks
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation https://t.co/TTduI6ve2o
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 22, 2025
Altcoins Proved Critics Wrong: Unexpected Market Surge
Why So Many People Were Wrong About Altcoins https://t.co/Dv9HsIgqhV
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 22, 2025
True Wealth Comes From Solid Assets, Not Altcoin Hype
So many people have held on to worthless altcoins for so long on the elusive promise of alt season. However, macro conditions/monetary policy were not favorable this cycle for that. As all the alt season calls get quietly pushed out to 2026...
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 22, 2025
Alt Season Mirrors a Precious Metal Rally
Alt season is actually precious metal season
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 20, 2025
Bear Markets: Prime Time for Building Foundations
Bear markets are for building
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 20, 2025
Bitcoin May Rally 2026; Altcoin Hype Irrelevant
There are reasons you can make for why Bitcoin could be bullish in early 2026. But “my shitcoin hasn’t gone to a new high yet” is not one of them
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 20, 2025
Bitcoin's Bull‑Bear Cycles Consistently Span About 1060 Days
The last 3 cycles for Bitcoin all lasted around the same amount of time. 2015-2017: 1067 days 2018-2021: 1059 days 2022-2025: 1062 days Sometimes the simplest indicators are the best. https://t.co/VKbWLEcZiT
By Benjamin Cowen
Social•Dec 19, 2025
Steady Investing Beats Chasing Penny Stocks and Altcoins
Investing should be boring. The idea that the only way to get rich is by buying penny stocks or altcoins is absurd. Bitcoin went up 8x this market cycle. That was an incredible return in only 3 years.
By Benjamin Cowen