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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
As the world moves quickly from higher prices to outright rationing, I can't recommend the book "Scarcity" enough. As I write in "The Confidence Map" not having enough of what matters fuels intense feelings of powerlessness and uncertainty. https://t.co/rwHhqBqG8U
Ironically by being explicit about what United won't do, Kirby is being explicit about United will do should conditions deteriorate beyond his current expectations. I share this because, unknowingly, he has set the stage for feelings of intense betrayal.
A Saturday morning thought. Overconfidence suggests we have too much of something positive. That couldn't be further from the truth. The reality is that we have too much fearlessness. We feel invulnerable. We believe we have far more certainty...
Between TSA lines, fuel costs and the actual physical availability of jet fuel, I expect Q1 airline industry earnings reports to be awash in the word "unprecedented." And God help them if we see weakness in premium passenger demand given all...
FWIW - I can't think of a more ill-timed moment to enable capital to exit the banking system. Then again, I saw this in the late 1990's and right before the housing crisis. https://t.co/BElQudhOBb
It was once thought that as defaults rose, credit card issuers would simply increase the rate they charge to compensate for that. Hard to see that now, given current portfolio yields. Worse, their cost of funds is rising...
Just a reminder that when it comes to bank regulation, what is deregulated on the way up is inevitably reregulated on the way down. Love them or hate them, there is no trend following crowd like our banking regulators.
15 years ago, the New England Complex Systems Institute looked at the relationship between food inflation and political instability. I can't emphasize its relevance now as inflation in everything is trampling those at the bottom. https://t.co/Wg5XzDJZAk https://t.co/Se3PcLw0YI
FWIW - "Cheapest Gas Near Me" searches tell us that while consumers are now concerned, they still aren't as panicked as they were during 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. https://t.co/P4wIhotOdw
The problem with soaring gas prices in Europe is that it is deja vu all over again when it comes to extreme powerlessness. FWIW - It is hard to imagine Europe gets through this without a voter referendum on powerlessness. Needless to...
FYI - Just heard from @McClellanOsc . His X account has been hacked. Please be careful with what may be posted until he gets it back under control. Thanks.
There is an important parallel between AI and the Iran War. The benefits of both are highly abstract to Main Street while the costs feel very tangible. This psychological mismatch matters as it easily opens the potential for backlash to both.
FWIW - The greatest risk to the unfolding events in Iran was, is, and will continue to be the backdrop of invulnerability that existed moments before hand.
That sound you hear is the widening of the K-Shaped economy - this time between the owners of energy assets and the consumers of energy assets.
FWIW - The wave of overregulation ahead is going to make Dodd Frank look like feeble.
