Circle‘s USDC Overtook Tether‘s USDT in Adjusted YTD Volume: Mizuho

Why It Matters

Volume dominance signals broader merchant and consumer adoption, positioning USDC as the preferred medium for everyday transactions and influencing investor sentiment.

Key Takeaways

• USDC transaction volume reaches $2.2 trillion YTD.
• USDT volume at $1.3 trillion YTD.
• USDC holds 64% stablecoin market share by volume.
• Mizuho raises Circle price target to $120.
• Tether retains larger market cap of $184 billion.

Pulse Analysis

The shift in stablecoin transaction volume highlights a maturing market where utility increasingly outweighs sheer size. While Tether has long led by market capitalization, USDC’s surge to $2.2 trillion in adjusted YTD volume suggests that businesses and consumers are gravitating toward a token perceived as more regulated and transparent. This usage‑centric metric offers a clearer picture of real‑world adoption, as volume directly reflects the frequency of payments, remittances, and DeFi interactions, unlike market cap, which can be inflated by idle holdings.

For Circle, the volume breakthrough translates into tangible investor confidence, prompting Mizuho to lift its price target to $120. A larger share of transaction flow can accelerate network effects, attract more liquidity providers, and strengthen partnerships with fintech platforms seeking stable, compliant settlement layers. As USDC embeds deeper into payment rails, payroll services, and cross‑border transfers, its revenue streams from custody, interest on reserves, and ancillary services are likely to expand, reinforcing its competitive edge against USDT.

Regulatory scrutiny, however, remains a pivotal factor. The stalled CLARITY Act and ongoing debates over stablecoin yields underscore the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy. Lawmakers’ hesitance could affect the speed at which stablecoins integrate with traditional finance, but a clear volume lead may give USDC a persuasive argument for favorable treatment. Ultimately, the battle between USDC and USDT will hinge on both market dynamics and the evolving regulatory landscape, shaping the future of digital payments.