Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Reviewing Our Economic History Can Help Us Weather Economic Crises
The Philippines has breached the P60 per USD threshold (≈$1.09), pushing import costs higher and stoking stagflation fears. The author recalls four past economic cycles—from the 1980s peso surge and 50% inflation to the 1997 Asian crisis and the pandemic—showing how each shock reshaped growth. Lessons include building cash buffers, diversifying revenue, and using flexible financial tools. Future resilience hinges on local food production, indigenized energy, and expanded manufacturing to curb import dependence.
Steadying the PH Economy Amid Gathering Headwinds
Entering the second half of 2026, the Philippines remains one of Southeast Asia’s more resilient economies, buoyed by strong domestic consumption, remittances, and ongoing infrastructure spending. However, rising geopolitical tensions and a volatile domestic political climate pose fresh risks, especially...
Debt Servicing Climbs to $2.1 Billion in 2 Months
The Philippines’ external debt‑service bill jumped to $2.13 billion in January‑February 2026, a 32% year‑on‑year increase. Principal repayments more than doubled to $884 million, while interest outlays were essentially flat at $1.24 billion. The debt‑service‑to‑export‑shipments ratio rose to 17.5%, reflecting a higher burden...
RMPOs ≠ QE, BUT DO STOCKS KNOW THAT?
The piece argues that Reserve Management Purchase Operations (RMPOs) are not the same as quantitative easing, yet equity markets often treat them as equivalent. It highlights the persistent debate among investors about the Fed’s balance‑sheet expansion and its impact on...
Thailand's Trade Deficit Offset by Tourism‑driven Current Surplus
Thailand is bleeding cash on physical goods, but it is making just enough back through tourism and services to keep the overall balance positive. i.e. Current account. Additionally, Thailand’s import of around 300 billion baht worth of gold in the...
The Fertilizer Shock Could Be Far Worse than the Oil Shock – by Amanda Van Dyke (Substack – May 25,...
Industrial fertilizers—nitrogen, phosphate, and potash—support roughly half of global food production, making their supply chains critical to civilization. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, a major fertilizer export hub, have exposed a looming “fertilizer shock” that could eclipse the current...
Shifting From Fossil Fuels Will Fail without Funding for African Industry and Energy Infrastructure
African leaders warned that the shift to renewable energy will falter without substantial financing for clean‑energy infrastructure, industrialisation and local mineral processing. At the April 2026 Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Colombia, they highlighted a $2.5 trillion climate‑finance...
US‑Iran Peace Deal Hopes Push Oil to Two‑Week Lows, Spark Global Market Rally
President Trump announced that a US‑Iran peace agreement is largely negotiated, raising expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The prospect has pulled oil down to two‑week lows, lifted gold and equities across Europe, Asia and the United States,...
Five EU Countries Call for Tougher Trade Weapons to Tackle China
A France‑led coalition of five EU members—France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Lithuania—has urged the European Commission to broaden the use of tariffs and other trade‑defence tools against unfair practices, implicitly targeting China. The non‑paper calls for more frequent safeguard...
IMF Flags Governance, Regulation and Openness Gaps in Nigeria and Sub‑Saharan Africa
The International Monetary Fund’s latest regional outlook warns that Nigeria and much of Sub‑Saharan Africa lag behind other developing regions in governance, business regulation and market openness. The IMF estimates that well‑designed reforms could boost output by about 20% over...
India Proposes Broad Revamp of Industrial Output Index Ahead of New Series
India’s statistics ministry has unveiled a sweeping overhaul of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slated for release next week. The revamp shifts the base year to 2022‑23, adopts a chain‑linked framework, and expands the basket to 463 item groups,...
ECB Likely to Raise Rates as Iran Conflict Stokes Euro Inflation
European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher said the bank is poised to lift interest rates next month unless a peace deal ends the Iran‑U.S. conflict. He warned that inflation will likely run higher than previously forecast, putting pressure...
Canada Aims for $740 Billion in New Investment, Touts Tax Edge
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a plan to draw roughly $740 billion USD in fresh investment to Canada over the next five years, backed by a $207 billion USD government incentive package. The strategy leans on Canada’s low debt, tax competitiveness and...
China’s Tungsten Grip Endangers U.S. Missile Supply Amid Iran War
The United States is scrambling for alternative tungsten sources after China, which produces more than 80% of the world’s supply, tightened export controls. Almonty Industries’ revived Sangdong mine in South Korea now represents the only large‑scale non‑Chinese source, a lifeline...
Trump‑driven Tariffs and Iran Conflict Push US Inflation to 3.8%, Rattling Wall Street
President Donald Trump's new tariffs and the fallout from the Iran‑Hormuz crisis have lifted the 12‑month inflation rate to 3.8% in April and driven gasoline to $4.54 per gallon. The surge in prices is testing the Federal Reserve’s policy stance...
Thursday’s Triple Data Sets ±1.36% Market Move
Thursday is the only day that matters this week. Core PCE, GDP, and PCE Price Index all land the same morning with options pricing a ±1.36% move around it. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence could be a warning. Watch for a print...
Inflation Surge Sparks Fed‑Trump Link, Bond Short‑Long Trade
Macro: Warsh ties Fed to Trump; inflation re-accelerates and markets price hikes. Key: CPI, mortgage stress, Fed split. Risks: politicization, surprise tightening. Trade: short long bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
European Stocks Highest Since March 2 as U.S.-Iran Talks Continue; Euro Zone Bond Yields Drop on Peace Hopes
European equities climbed to their highest levels since March 2, with the Stoxx 600 up about 0.8% as optimism grew over U.S.–Iran negotiations. President Donald Trump’s statement that talks were “orderly and constructive” helped push oil prices down more than 5%, lifting...
Hormuz’s New Toll Booth ?: Iran’s “Environmental Tax” Risks Rewiring Global Trade
Iran’s foreign ministry announced plans to levy an “environmental tax” on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as a service charge tied to maritime safety and ecological stewardship. The proposal is being negotiated with Oman to present a...
German DAX Climbs 1.25% on US‑Iran Peace‑deal Optimism
German equities rallied sharply on Monday, with the DAX index gaining 1.25% after reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps allowed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The move sparked optimism that a U.S.-Iran peace agreement could ease oil‑price...
India's Economy Stressed by $110‑115 Crude Oil, Former BPCL Exec Warns of Rising Import Bill
Former Bharat Petroleum marketing director Sukhmal Kumar Jain warned that global crude has jumped to $110‑115 a barrel, inflating India's oil import bill and deepening rupee depreciation. The surge, coupled with consecutive fuel price hikes, is eroding the trade balance...
Bond Vigilantes Resurface, Threatening Higher Yields and Stock Valuations
Bond market participants have revived their vigilante stance, dumping long‑term Treasuries and lifting the 30‑year yield to 5.18%, the highest since 2007. Analysts link the sell‑off to unsustainable U.S. fiscal dynamics and rising inflation, warning that higher yields could compress...
Oil Prices Slip Below $100 as US‑Iran Talks Boost Hormuz Hope
Brent crude slid to $98.83 a barrel, breaking the $100 mark after President Donald Trump announced that U.S.‑Iran talks were progressing toward ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The price drop reflects shifting market sentiment from geopolitical...
Moody’s Revises South Africa’s Outlook To Positive
Moody’s upgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive while keeping its Ba2 rating unchanged. The move makes the nation the only G20 country currently on a positive outlook from Moody’s, reflecting gradual fiscal improvement and ongoing structural...
Germany's CDS Rates Imply Near‑zero Default Risk
Good Morning from Germany, where credit markets remain remarkably forgiving. Despite econ stagnation & rapidly rising debt, it still costs less than 10bps to insure against default within 5yrs. The implied probability of default is just 0.8%, so the CDS...
Temporary
New @nberpubs: "Unlocking Mortgage Lock-In: Equilibrium Effects in a Spatial Housing Ladder Model" https://t.co/JzXAeBI1wS "A temporary rate hike causes lock-in, increasing aggregate house prices by 4.4% and rents by 1.5% relative to a counterfactual without lock-in" https://t.co/55VqtrmtJP
Bond Traders Are Surrendering to Inflation Fears. It's Raising the Stakes for Washington
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 30‑year hitting 5.10% and the 10‑year near 4.6%, levels not seen since the 2007 financial crisis. The spike is tied to the Iran‑Strait of Hormuz shutdown, which has tightened oil supplies and pushed energy...
Higher Labor Market Fluidity Boosts Wages and Productivity
"Labor Market Fluidity, On-the-Job Learning, and Career Growth Across Countries" https://t.co/NSlsUMzcs5 "Moving from a low- to a high-fluidity country... raises life-cycle wage growth by 19.4 log points and output per worker by 33.4 log points." https://t.co/zUN0TnZw1e
Resource Dominance Reshaping Trump’s Rivalry with China
The May 2026 Trump‑Xi summit turned a routine trade meeting into a showcase for resource diplomacy. China pledged to buy at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028 and signaled interest in more U.S. oil to hedge Hormuz risks....
Luxury Homes, Premium Offices Underpin Asian Property’s Resilience
JPMorgan warns that the energy‑price shock is rippling through Asia, yet the region’s real‑estate sector remains surprisingly resilient. Luxury residential markets, especially Tokyo and Singapore, posted strong price gains and high‑value sales despite a 60% foreign‑buyer tax in Singapore. Premium...
Market Outlook for the Week of 25th-29th May
The week of May 25‑29 is data‑heavy, with Japan’s core CPI, U.S. consumer confidence, Australia’s CPI and the RBNZ policy decision, followed by a slate of U.S. releases including core PCE, GDP, durable‑goods orders and new‑home sales. Canada’s GDP and Japan’s...
Thailand Records Historic $10 B April Trade Deficit
🇹🇭Thailand has just announced a $10B trade deficit in April. The largest trade deficit on record. 👀 https://t.co/vRCsEL52Sz
Another Major Disservice in the Quest for an Enlightened Society
The article dismantles the alarmist narrative around Australia’s approaching $1 trillion debt milestone, arguing that sovereign debt works differently from household finance. It explains that the government issues its own currency, can credit accounts directly, and is not forced to raise...
Thai April Exports Rise 23.1% Y/Y, Beats Forecast
Thailand’s customs‑cleared exports jumped 23.1% in April year‑on‑year, outpacing the Reuters‑poll forecast of 17.3%. The previous month had already posted an 18.7% rise, signaling a accelerating export momentum. Imports surged even faster, climbing 45% over the same period, widening the...
Australia Is Forcing Chinese Investors Out of Rare-Earths Projects. That Creates Other Risks
Australia’s treasurer ordered six China‑linked investors to divest a combined 17.58% stake in Northern Minerals, the country’s sole heavy‑rare‑earth developer, and simultaneously pledged to purchase 500 tonnes of rare earths from Arafura Rare Earths’ Nolans project for the national strategic reserve....
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low of 44.8, Raising Spending and Policy Concerns
The University of Michigan revised its May consumer sentiment index to a record‑low 44.8, the steepest reading in the survey’s history. The drop, driven by rising inflation expectations and mixed labor‑market signals, threatens household spending and fuels debate over the...
EU-Mexico Modernized Trade Deal Adds $5 B Investment, Cuts Tariffs, Shifts Supply Chains
The European Union and Mexico sealed a modernized free‑trade agreement that includes a $5 billion investment package, eliminates most tariffs on agricultural goods and opens digital‑trade and procurement markets. The deal, hailed as a geopolitical statement, is set to reshape supply‑chain...
Japan, China Trade Ministers Meet to Ease Rare‑Earth Export Dispute
Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met informally during the APEC summit in Suzhou to discuss China’s heavy rare‑earth export controls. The dialogue comes as Beijing controls roughly 70% of global rare‑earth...
ECB Likely to Raise Rates Next Month as Iran Conflict Fuels Euro‑Area Inflation
ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher warned that the central bank will likely hike interest rates next month unless a sustainable US‑Iran peace deal materialises. He said inflation is set to run higher than previously forecast, putting euro‑area equities under...
Dow Jones Slides 322 Points as 30‑Year Treasury Yield Hits 19‑Year High
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 322.24 points to 49,363.88 on May 19, 2026, as the 30‑year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.19%, a 19‑year peak. The surge in long‑term rates pressured industrial, financial and tech stocks while defensive healthcare and...
FAO Warns Hormuz Shutdown Could Spark Severe Global Food‑price Crisis Within a Year
The Food and Agriculture Organization warned that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global food‑price crisis within six to twelve months. The agency cites disrupted fertilizer shipments, rising transport costs and looming El Niño impacts,...
Singapore: AI and Innovation Anchor Financial Stability Amid Global Uncertainty
At the UBS Asian Investment Conference, MAS Managing Director Chia Der Jiun warned that geopolitical tensions and a regional energy supply shock of over 10 million barrels per day are testing global economic resilience, while rapid AI investment is fueling growth....
Indonesia Eyes Commodity Export Policy Detail Rollout in Coming Weeks
Indonesia is preparing to launch Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, a centralized agency that will take over export management of key commodities such as palm oil, thermal coal and certain nickel products. The government estimates the country loses up to $150 billion annually...
Gold Jumps as Prospects of Iran Deal Temper Inflation Concerns
Gold surged up to 1.6% to about $4,580 an ounce as reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation worries. The rally erased a modest loss from the previous week but remained muted amid...
RBI Feels Rupee May Be Undervalued Now
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra told Mint that the rupee is not overvalued and may actually be undervalued after its recent slide toward the 100‑per‑dollar psychological level. He emphasized that the RBI does not set a specific exchange‑rate...
RBI Expected to Hold Rates as Rupee Slides 6% Amid Oil Shock
Sources tell Reuters the Reserve Bank of India will likely keep interest rates steady, arguing inflation—not the rupee—should drive policy. The rupee has weakened about 6% since the Iran‑related oil shock, while Brent crude has surged over 50% to $110...
Ghana's Economy Shows Recovery as Central Bank Posts $1.3B Loss Amid Stabilisation
The Bank of Ghana disclosed a GH¢15.63 billion ($1.3 billion) operational deficit for 2025, sparking political debate. Local analysts argue the loss reflects aggressive monetary tightening that has already lowered inflation, steadied the cedi and put Ghana back on a growth path.
Bond Traders Price In 2026 Fed Rate Hike as Two-Year Yield Hits 4.14%
Bond traders fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike for 2026 after Governor Christopher Waller warned that a rate cut is unlikely. The two-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.14%, the highest since February 2025, and interest‑rate...
Oil Prices Drop as Hormuz Blockade Hits WTI, Brent and Triggers Jet‑Fuel Shortages
Oil prices fell more than 3% on Tuesday, with WTI sinking to $89 a barrel and Brent to $98 as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed amid Iran‑U.S. tensions. The disruption sparked jet‑fuel shortage warnings for European airlines and prompted...
Japan Bond Yield Surge Deepens Regional Bank Stock Divide
Japan’s long‑term government‑bond yields have surged to multi‑decade highs, driven by soaring energy prices and fears of increased fiscal debt issuance. The rise has split regional lenders: banks such as North Pacific and Senshu Ikeda, burdened by large unrealised bond...