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Know What's Happening in Global Economy
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Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
UK fintech funding plunges 21% as rates hit 5.25%
Fintech investment in the UK fell 21% in 2025, driven by the Bank of England’s base rate climbing to 5.25%. Higher rates made government bonds more attractive, pulling capital from venture funds and limiting contributions from pension schemes, while softer consumer spending and loan demand pressured fintech valuations.
Platinum’s safe‑haven appeal is waning as Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. interest‑rate expectations trigger sizable outflows from platinum‑backed ETFs. The World Platinum Investment Council reports March ETF withdrawals of 224,000 ounces, while the region accounts for roughly 200,000 ounces (2.5% of global demand). Potential Strait of Hormuz restrictions could shave another 50,000 ounces from annual demand, and higher rates plus a stronger dollar have pushed precious‑metal prices down nearly 20% this month. Despite these shocks, tight supply and diversified industrial use keep the medium‑term case for platinum intact.
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
South Korea has revised its electronic arrival card, eliminating the “previous departure place” and “next destination” fields and dropping the contentious “Taiwan (China)” label from its dropdown menu. The adjustment, announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, aligns the digital...
Markets surged after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire, lifting risk sentiment across equities. Inflation numbers came in line with forecasts, reinforcing the rally and setting the stage for the upcoming producer‑price data. Investors now turn to...
The reopening and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude to $100‑$105 a barrel, inflating fuel and petroleum‑based raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers. Higher freight rates—up to four times normal—are prompting firms to delay or...
𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 When Christopher Columbus set sail in 1492 under the backing of Queen Isabella I, he wasn’t just opening a new trade route; he was unknowingly setting off one of the most profound economic...
Economist David McWilliams argues that Ireland is Europe’s most mismanaged economy, pointing to unchecked spending and weak cost control. He highlights the national children’s hospital, originally budgeted at €650 million (≈$715 million), which ballooned to €2.24 billion (≈$2.46 billion) by 2025 – a 220%...
The six‑week war in Iran has driven diesel and fertilizer prices sharply higher, choking the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting imports of key agricultural inputs to Southeast Asia. Rice farmers in Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia and Vietnam face doubled or...
"Looking at broader macro-political dynamics, China has effectively started its “campaign season” as Xi eyes a fourth term beginning in 2027, followed by another US presidential election cycle in 2028. These overlapping timelines mean that both countries will, in relatively...
The United Arab Emirates has demanded the repayment of a US$3.5 billion deposit held by Pakistan's central bank, signaling a sharp diplomatic rift after Islamabad helped broker a cease‑fire in the Iran war. The demand comes just days after Pakistan’s mediation...
Europe is increasingly isolated from its traditional partners—Russia, China and the United States—creating a perfect storm of economic strain. Russian sabotage and reduced oil flows have rattled energy security, while a flood of low‑cost Chinese goods is eroding manufacturing margins...
J.G. Ballard’s unpublished manuscript, “An Immodest Proposal, or How the World Declared War on America,” resurfaced from his 2005 notebooks at the British Library. The draft imagines a United States that dominates the Middle East, manipulates global trade, and faces a...
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, beginning April 20, importers can submit requests for tariff refunds after the Supreme Court nullified former President Donald Trump’s sweeping global duties. The refund program will initially cover only unliquidated entries or those...
Two months: that’s how long it might be before the Strait of Hormuz opens and resumes transit akin to before the war (from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett). Translation: We F’d up so bad and had zero plans to deal...
The Nasdaq climbed 0.6% to 22,966.65 and the S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 6,834.93, while the Dow fell 0.3% to 48,043.65. The moves came as oil prices surged toward $100 a barrel, reviving geopolitical risk and compressing market breadth.
Panama’s foreign minister warned China on Wednesday that the detention of Panama‑flagged vessels in Chinese ports is a retaliation for a Supreme Court ruling that stripped Hong‑Kong‑based CK Hutchison of two Panama Canal port contracts. The move threatens the reliability...
The University of Michigan reported that U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a historic low of 47.6 in April, far below expectations. The decline, driven by worries over the Iran conflict and higher inflation expectations, threatens retail sales forecasts and forces...
Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index reveals that 88% of senior executives intend to expand FDI in the next three years, while 84% say industrial policy now drives capital allocation. The findings come as China climbs to fourth place...
Rodgers & Associates Ltd. trimmed its stake in the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) in early April 2026, joining a wave of hedge funds adjusting positions in the $117 billion fund. While the exact size of the reduction was not...
Kenya's central bank governor Kamau Thugge said Nairobi will resume IMF negotiations in Washington this month, signaling a softer stance after the Iran‑US conflict widened the current‑account gap and forced a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 5.3%. The...
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Russia will lift oil output to 515 million metric tons in 2026 – about 10.3 million barrels per day – up from 512 million tons in 2025. The forecast comes as Moscow seeks to boost domestic...
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.14% to 8,960.6 on Friday as crude oil prices rebounded toward $97 a barrel, dragging down technology shares. Energy stocks rose modestly, and investors remain wary of the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and its...
Former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles told a Shadow Open Market Committee audience that the legal shield preventing presidential removal of Board members should be scrapped, but argued the Fed’s decentralized structure would still keep monetary policy insulated from...
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) experienced extreme volatility in March after Israel and the United States began bombing Iran, triggering a circuit‑breaker when the index dropped 8% on March 4. Oil prices surged nearly 40%, sending diesel to over 50 baht...
A cease‑fire in the Iran conflict has steadied global risk assets, but Singapore’s foreign affairs minister warned that the worst‑case energy‑supply shock is not fully priced in. Singapore responded with about S$1 billion (≈ $785 million) of support measures and urged reduced electricity...
A fragile cease‑fire in the Middle East sparked a brief rally, lifting the S&P 500 3.6% – its strongest jump since November – while emerging‑market equities and Bitcoin surged. Wall Street strategists, however, warn the war has already scarred inflation, energy...
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/0Xr3HV1riR
Mortgage rates have climbed again, adding fresh pressure to an already tight spring housing market. The rise comes amid higher utility bills, elevated construction material costs and tighter credit conditions, tightening affordability for prospective buyers.
That says the Trump administration is ready for a deal with Iran, but is Iran ready? Is Netanyahu ready? US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/jMSFlgcOrq
Governments around the world are providing subsidies to help mitigate impact of higher energy prices. Such efforts counter recessionary pressures, but to what extent and for how long? Government Launches High Oil Price Support for Bottom 70% Starting 27th https://t.co/EWO71DrdHN
The Commerce Department lowered its fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP estimate to a 0.5% annualized gain, down from 0.7%, after a 43‑day government shutdown trimmed federal spending. The modest expansion follows a 4.4% surge in Q3 and leaves full‑year growth at 2.1%,...
US released $6B in frozen Iran funds It's trading leverage for short-term stability. That may ease pressure now, but it strengthens Iran’s hand over time. "We’re going to make Iran great again." “They’re going to win so much, they’re going to be so sick...
JUST IN: Wall Street closed mixed but posted weekly gains as investors analyze Middle East talks.
Oil prices slipped sharply as the market digested the prospect of Iran‑U.S. talks. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.3% to below $97 a barrel, while weekly futures dropped 13.4%, marking the steepest decline since 2020. Prices remain over 30% above pre‑conflict...
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
Col. Douglas MacGregor on Israel's plan for the Middle East: “Israel has a plan to turn most of the region that doesn’t submit to its dominance into Gaza.” https://t.co/VBNw0VQftf
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said the United States is extorting Latin American governments to terminate decades‑old agreements that send Cuban doctors abroad. The claim comes as Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica and Guyana have pulled the plug on the program that...
The war in the Middle East hits food staples ⚠️ 🌾 Rice farmers in Southeast Asia are deciding to skip planting for the next season due to rising fuel & fertilizer costs Some Thai farmers are leaving the crop in the ground...
If the ceasefire fails, Ukraine has a plan to unblock the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/n300ozshow
S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines sovereign outlook to "stable," echoing concerns over twin budget and current‑account deficits. Nomura analysts said the move was anticipated after the flood‑control corruption scandal and an energy shock from the Middle East war heightened...
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Will the US-Iran negotiations starting today be able to secure a material increase in the Strait of Hormuz transits early on? Courtesy FT: https://t.co/SLCKkZ5fdc
The Federation of Philippine Industries (FPI) urged the government to provide targeted, time‑bound aid to manufacturers as the Middle East conflict keeps oil and logistics costs high. Despite the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel surcharges have risen...
JUST IN: The Fed has to clarify why this inflation spike differs from the 2022 surge.
Europe might sanction Russia, but when push comes to shove, it depends on Russian energy. As I’ve been saying since Day 1 of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/boFO4l8cc7
I've said this a few times, but it needs to be reinforced. The Iran war will do far more to balance trade and drive American reindustrialization than the tariffs ever did.
Jet fuel supply disruptions continue. China has halted jet fuel exports; Asia is running out of fuel. Major shortages could soon spread to Europe and the US. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/1BeaFpUw8i
Without the WTO, the world will revert to regional trading blocs. The issue is that this leaves several regions without balanced economies (you need production and consumption, and only a handful of areas have that). #trade #wto #geopolitics https://t.co/2TTZ38I9KL
