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Foreign investors hold over $35 trillion in U.S. assets amid market turbulence
Foreign investors now control more than $35 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, up from roughly $31 trillion a year earlier. Despite the April 2025 tariff‑driven market dip, they added about $1.5 trillion in net purchases, signaling continued confidence in the U.S. financial system.
President Trump’s push for an “Energy Fortress America” puts U.S. LNG at the core of his energy agenda. Iran’s missile strike forced QatarEnergy to declare force majeure, pulling roughly 17% of global LNG capacity offline and prompting a rush to approve new U.S. export terminals. While Qatar hopes a partial restart by late April, full recovery could take three to five years because critical replacement parts are sourced from only three manufacturers. Ongoing tension in the Strait of Hormuz adds further uncertainty to worldwide gas supplies.
Macro: growth cools; inflation sticky. Key: Fed, CPI, earnings. Risks: stagfllation, liquidity shock. Trade: shorten duration (cut long Treasuries). Outlook: volatile; favor cyclicals on dips. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
East Africa's fuel shortage will persist despite a two‑week Gulf ceasefire, as the region depends on refined imports from the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda's reserves are expected to run out by mid‑May, prompting rationing...
This reporting from The Guardian gives us a feel for the growing pressures in Europe as energy prices remain high. The situation is worse in some developing countries, where physical shortages are already occurring. #economy #MiddleEastWar #oil #energy @guardian
Our monthly inflation nowcast is a weekly publication which augments our existing quarterly nowcast by offering a closer look at likely trajectory of the front month Headline CPI number. As always, our process is rate-of-change centric and we have thus built...
Britain says Ukraine can play a useful role in securing the Strait of Hormuz, praising its drone technology as among the world’s best. The UK has convened more than 30 nations to discuss reopening the strait after Iran’s blockade choked...
Being a top producer doesn’t insulate the U.S. from oil shocks It amplifies exposure. Oil is priced globally, and the U.S. economy is more oil-intensive than its peers, so higher prices hit harder. Those who think the US is less affected are...
Consumer prices climbed 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the biggest annual rise since May 2024, as gasoline surged 21% amid the Iran war’s impact on oil markets. The spike sharpens pressure on the Federal Reserve and raises near‑term cost burdens for...
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a new toll regime and choking oil‑linked supply chains. Helium shipments from Qatar, India’s LPG imports and U.S. gasoline prices have all surged, driving U.S. inflation up...
“People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking. And stock picking is full of macro bets. When an equity...
India's import routes for crude oil, natural gas and especially LPG rely on the Strait of Hormuz at rates higher than the global average, exposing a strategic vulnerability. Officials say diversification of supply sources and domestic gas expansion are under...
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $9.06 billion rise in foreign‑exchange reserves to $697.12 billion for the week ended April 3, 2026. The surge, driven by a $7.22 billion jump in gold holdings and a $1.78 billion increase in foreign‑currency assets, reinforces a buffer...
Exxon Mobil said its Stabroek Block offshore Guyana holds roughly 11 billion oil‑equivalent barrels, with production poised to climb from 875,000 bpd at end‑2025 to over 1 million bpd before 2026. The find could reshape global supply and boost Guyana’s economy.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance landed in Islamabad on April 11, 2026, to head a delegation that met Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks focus on extending the Iran‑Israel cease‑fire, reopening the Strait...
U.S. Treasury yields slipped on Friday as diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran eased investor anxiety. The 10‑year Treasury yield hovered around 4.30%, reflecting a modest reprieve in the sovereign bond market amid hopes for a cease‑fire.
On April 10 the Nasdaq posted a modest gain as investors priced in optimism around upcoming U.S.-Iran peace talks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 barely moved, each posting marginal upticks. The split performance highlighted lingering uncertainty...
British Columbia Premier David Eby used the BC Council of Forest Industries conference to condemn U.S. softwood lumber tariffs, urging American buyers to source timber from Canada rather than Europe or Russia. He noted that U.S. demand outstrips domestic production,...
Sunil Singhania says the West Asia conflict has heightened oil prices and supply‑route worries, feeding volatility into Indian equities. He notes that roughly 90% of the conflict‑related risks are already priced in, leaving a favorable risk‑reward balance. Domestic investors continue...
The Iran‑Russia conflict forces China to buy oil at higher costs while it touts a vague peace plan, creating a logistics split where sea freight remains flat but air freight spikes nearly 95% on Asia‑Europe routes. Domestic demand weakness hits...
U.S. drivers are now accustomed to paying around $4 per gallon as the Iran‑Israel conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. A two‑week cease‑fire was announced, but shipping firms still deem the waterway too risky, limiting oil tanker traffic...
The World Bank and IMF will convene their annual meetings in Washington on April 13, amid escalating tensions after the US‑Israel strike on Iran. The conflict threatens global supply chains, especially energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and could dampen...
Vice President Pete Buttigieg tweeted that inflation has tripled in just one month, accusing President Donald Trump of reversing his campaign promise to lower prices. The claim contrasts with Trump’s repeated pledges to bring down inflation as his top priority....
Here is what data tells over 50 years of my tracking. Energy and world GDP track perfectly 1:1. Full shock incoming if Hormuz still stays choked. War not only risks global shortages, but exposes the fragility we’ve ignored. More information in the...
Iran’s war with Israel has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking the main oil transit route into Asia. Thailand, heavily reliant on imported crude, is experiencing an acute fuel shortage that is rippling through tourism, farming, street‑food...
Taiwan’s central bank said imported inflation remains controllable despite higher global energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Import prices rose 4.31% in U.S.‑dollar terms in the first quarter, but the TWD’s appreciation limited growth to just 0.33% in...
And just to give one example of why GDP per capita is a useless metric: Look at Ireland here. Do you really think that Ireland is so much wealthier than the US and all its European counterparts? Ireland has made a business...
The six‑week Iran‑UAE conflict has exposed financial and operational vulnerabilities for Asian digital entrepreneurs using Dubai as a launchpad. Drone and missile attacks disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil to about $100 a barrel and tightening freight liquidity, while...
Platinum’s safe‑haven appeal is waning as Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. interest‑rate expectations trigger sizable outflows from platinum‑backed ETFs. The World Platinum Investment Council reports March ETF withdrawals of 224,000 ounces, while the region accounts for roughly 200,000...
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
South Korea has revised its electronic arrival card, eliminating the “previous departure place” and “next destination” fields and dropping the contentious “Taiwan (China)” label from its dropdown menu. The adjustment, announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, aligns the digital...
Markets surged after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire, lifting risk sentiment across equities. Inflation numbers came in line with forecasts, reinforcing the rally and setting the stage for the upcoming producer‑price data. Investors now turn to...
The reopening and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude to $100‑$105 a barrel, inflating fuel and petroleum‑based raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers. Higher freight rates—up to four times normal—are prompting firms to delay or...
𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 When Christopher Columbus set sail in 1492 under the backing of Queen Isabella I, he wasn’t just opening a new trade route; he was unknowingly setting off one of the most profound economic...
Economist David McWilliams argues that Ireland is Europe’s most mismanaged economy, pointing to unchecked spending and weak cost control. He highlights the national children’s hospital, originally budgeted at €650 million (≈$715 million), which ballooned to €2.24 billion (≈$2.46 billion) by 2025 – a 220%...
The six‑week war in Iran has driven diesel and fertilizer prices sharply higher, choking the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting imports of key agricultural inputs to Southeast Asia. Rice farmers in Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia and Vietnam face doubled or...
"Looking at broader macro-political dynamics, China has effectively started its “campaign season” as Xi eyes a fourth term beginning in 2027, followed by another US presidential election cycle in 2028. These overlapping timelines mean that both countries will, in relatively...
Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal: Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell...
The United Arab Emirates has demanded the repayment of a US$3.5 billion deposit held by Pakistan's central bank, signaling a sharp diplomatic rift after Islamabad helped broker a cease‑fire in the Iran war. The demand comes just days after Pakistan’s mediation...
my BOOK OF THE SUMMER: 'The bankers did well, workers did not...' 242 devastating pages by @B_Eichengreen. on what money says about society. it is profound how from BCE to BDCs our collapse is 'financialized'. minimal math; maximum depth and...
There was lots of talk how acute "physical" shortage in the spot market would pull up futures prices of oil. That turned out to be totally wrong. News of a ceasefire pulled down futures, which in turn pulled down spot...
Europe is increasingly isolated from its traditional partners—Russia, China and the United States—creating a perfect storm of economic strain. Russian sabotage and reduced oil flows have rattled energy security, while a flood of low‑cost Chinese goods is eroding manufacturing margins...
The Dollar has a lot further to fall. Look at the gap that's opened up between the Dollar versus the G10 (blue) and the corresponding interest rate differential (black). We're talking about another 5% drop as negotiations continue and war...
Earlier this week, I predicted we'd get a ceasefire. We did. The US and Iran are negotiating, a big step forward. Lots of details to iron out, but the war is ending, which is hugely risk positive. As a result,...
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that, beginning April 20, importers can submit requests for tariff refunds after the Supreme Court nullified former President Donald Trump’s sweeping global duties. The refund program will initially cover only unliquidated entries or those...
US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/0Xr3HV1riR
That says the Trump administration is ready for a deal with Iran, but is Iran ready? Is Netanyahu ready? US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/jMSFlgcOrq
Governments around the world are providing subsidies to help mitigate impact of higher energy prices. Such efforts counter recessionary pressures, but to what extent and for how long? Government Launches High Oil Price Support for Bottom 70% Starting 27th https://t.co/EWO71DrdHN
US released $6B in frozen Iran funds It's trading leverage for short-term stability. That may ease pressure now, but it strengthens Iran’s hand over time. "We’re going to make Iran great again." “They’re going to win so much, they’re going to be so sick...
JUST IN: Wall Street closed mixed but posted weekly gains as investors analyze Middle East talks.
