Inflated Week in Review

Key Takeaways

• Egg prices hit lowest point since early 2022
• Gas CPI component posts largest monthly jump since 1967
• ISM Services PMI expands 21 months, prices rise sharply
• Gasoline $4.25/gal, diesel $5.64/gal, oil prices fall
• Durable‑goods orders down three months, but up 8.1% YoY

Pulse Analysis

The latest data paints a nuanced picture of inflation in the United States. While egg prices have finally eased, delivering the lowest rates seen since early 2022, the broader consumer price index tells a different story. The gas component surged to its biggest monthly increase in more than half a century, underscoring the lingering impact of volatile energy markets. This divergence highlights how sector‑specific price movements can mask underlying inflationary trends that policymakers watch closely.

Energy markets remain a focal point for both investors and the Federal Reserve. Oil prices slipped after tentative cease‑fire reports in the Strait of Hormuz, yet gasoline and diesel prices continued their upward trajectory, reaching $4.25 and $5.64 per gallon respectively—levels not seen in several years. The disconnect between crude‑oil price movements and downstream fuel costs reflects supply‑chain bottlenecks, refinery constraints, and geopolitical uncertainty, all of which can sustain higher consumer energy bills despite short‑term oil price dips.

On the production side, the ISM Services PMI confirmed a 21‑month streak of expansion, signaling resilience in the service economy. However, the sharp rise in input prices points to cost‑push inflation that could erode profit margins. Meanwhile, durable‑goods orders fell for a third month, primarily due to transportation equipment volatility, even as overall orders are 8.1% higher year‑over‑year for early 2026. This mixed manufacturing signal, combined with a modest 2% rise in TSA‑reported travel, suggests that consumer demand remains robust despite higher jet‑fuel costs, but manufacturers may face headwinds from lingering supply‑side pressures.