Chokepoint in the Gulf: What the US-Israeli War on Iran Means for Southeast Asia’s Food Security

Why It Matters

Disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets threaten Southeast Asia’s food security and could trigger broader inflationary pressures across global food supply chains.

Key Takeaways

• Gulf conflict cuts 20‑30% oil/LNG supply.
• Fertiliser trade down 33%; prices up 50% YTD.
• Southeast Asia imports majority of nitrogen fertilizers.
• Higher input costs threaten rice yields and export margins.
• ASEAN urged to pool purchases, avoid export bans.

Pulse Analysis

The escalation of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reverberated far beyond the Middle East, creating a chokepoint that now grips the world’s energy and fertilizer markets. With roughly a quarter of global oil and LNG production stalled and a third of fertilizer trade disrupted, prices have spiked dramatically. Qatar’s force majeure on LNG, which supplies about 20% of the world’s liquefied gas, compounds the scarcity, while nitrogen fertilizer costs have risen more than 50% year‑to‑date. These shocks are reshaping commodity flows and prompting airlines to reroute, further inflating logistics costs.

Southeast Asia, a net importer of both energy and agricultural inputs, feels the strain acutely. Nations such as Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam rely heavily on imported oil, gas, and nitrogenous fertilizers, making them vulnerable to price volatility. The immediate impact is evident in rising food prices, as higher energy costs translate into steeper production and transport expenses. Although the current rice‑growing season may be insulated—most fertilizers have already been applied—the upcoming season could see reduced yields and tighter export margins, especially for Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, potentially driving up regional import bills.

In response, ASEAN policymakers are being urged to adopt a collaborative, resilience‑focused strategy rather than resorting to export bans that historically offer only short‑term relief. Recommendations include pooling fertilizer purchases, streamlining port regulations to enable rapid supplier switches, and leveraging digital tools for precision nutrient management. Long‑term, the region must accelerate a transition toward regenerative agriculture, investing in bio‑fertilizers, waste‑derived nutrients, and soil‑health technologies. The ASEAN Food, Agriculture & Forestry Sectoral Plan 2026‑2030 already signals this shift, but effective implementation will determine whether Southeast Asia can safeguard its food security against future geopolitical shocks.