Robertson's Garretty Says War Has Put 'Recession' Back Into Conversation

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has thrust the words "recession" and "bubble" back into financial headlines. Chief economist Jeanette Garrity places the probability of a U.S. recession at roughly 30‑35 percent, while analysts warn that a sudden oil price surge to $175 a barrel could amplify inflationary pressure and accelerate a downturn. This geopolitical shock is reshaping macro forecasts, prompting investors to reassess risk exposure and consider how supply‑chain disruptions might reverberate through consumer spending and corporate earnings.

Technical analyst Adam Grimes highlights that March and April historically bring heightened stock market volatility, a seasonal pattern that aligns with current uncertainty. He notes that non‑stationary market behavior makes past price action an imperfect predictor, yet chart‑based tools still reveal reliable entry and exit points, especially in commodities like crude oil and precious metals. Grimes argues that while long‑term optimism remains justified for diversified portfolios, short‑term traders must brace for potential corrections, as elevated volatility often coincides with downward price moves.

Given these dynamics, defensive investment tactics are gaining traction. Experts recommend setting clear profit targets, employing trailing stop‑loss orders, and gradually raising cash reserves to capitalize on future buying opportunities. For investors with longer horizons, maintaining core equity exposure while diversifying into income‑generating assets can mitigate drawdowns. Ultimately, a balanced approach—combining macro awareness, technical insights, and disciplined risk management—offers the best chance to navigate the current turbulence and position portfolios for post‑crisis growth.