Slim Majority in Southeast Asia Would Align with China over US if Forced to Choose Sides: Poll

Why It Matters

The shift toward Chinese preference and heightened neutrality reshapes investment strategies and diplomatic engagement, making climate resilience and regional cohesion critical priorities for firms and policymakers.

Key Takeaways

• China leads as Southeast Asia's top economic power
• 52% would side with China over the United States
• Majority prefer neutrality, citing regional cohesion against great‑power pressure
• Japan remains most trusted major power, outranking both US and China
• Climate change tops concerns, with 60% fearing extreme weather impacts

Summary

A new poll by the ISEAS‑Yusof Ishak Institute surveyed over 2,000 Southeast Asian policymakers, analysts and business leaders to gauge shifting geopolitical preferences amid rising US‑China rivalry. The annual survey, conducted during a period of heightened South China Sea tensions, asked respondents to rank economic, political and strategic influence of major powers and to indicate which side they would support if forced to choose. The results show China now tops the list as the region’s most influential economic, political and strategic power, edging out the United States, which falls to second place. When asked to pick a side, 52% favored China versus 48% for the United States, reversing last year’s U.S. majority. Nonetheless, a clear majority—55%—expressed a desire to remain neutral, emphasizing regional unity and resistance to external pressure. Japan emerged as the most trusted major power at 65%, with the European Union second, while trust in China surpassed distrust for the first time since 2019. Climate change dominated the agenda, with 60% citing extreme weather and environmental risks as top concerns, followed by rising economic tensions between great powers and domestic political instability. The poll signals that businesses and governments operating in Southeast Asia must navigate an increasingly nuanced landscape: aligning with China may yield economic benefits, but the strong preference for neutrality suggests a market for policies that balance great‑power influences while addressing climate and stability risks.

Original Description

Shifting priorities are emerging across Southeast Asia amid a volatile geopolitical landscape. That's according to an ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey, which polled more than 2,000 policymakers, analysts and business leaders in the region. US leadership under Donald Trump overtook South China Sea tensions as the top regional concern. Meanwhile, China remains the most influential economic power in the region. When asked to choose between the US and China, respondents remained divided but 52% leaned towards China. This reverses last year's result when a majority chose the US. Even so, most respondents preferred not to choose sides. Afifah Ariffin reports.