Global EconomyUS EconomyReal Estate InvestingReal Estate

Texas Gives MASSIVE Housing Market Warning

Eurodollar University (Jeff Snider)
Eurodollar University (Jeff Snider)•Mar 10, 2026

Why It Matters

Rising mortgage defaults in Texas signal that the U.S. housing recovery may be derailed, potentially spilling over into broader credit markets and prompting tighter lending standards nationwide.

Key Takeaways

  • •Texas mortgage delinquency tops nation at roughly 24% rate.
  • •Home price growth stalled; median price unchanged year‑over‑year.
  • •Lower mortgage rates failed to revive buyer activity nationwide.
  • •Employment gap of 8.7 million significantly hampers housing demand.
  • •Rising delinquencies concentrated in low‑income, high‑unemployment areas across regions.

Summary

The video warns that Texas is now the epicenter of a new housing‑market stress, as mortgage delinquency rates have surged to roughly a quarter of loans while home‑price growth has flat‑lined despite the lowest mortgage rates in three and a half years.

Data from WalletHub shows Laredo, Texas at a 23.85% delinquency rate, up 5.6 points year‑over‑year, with other cities such as El Paso, San Antonio and Fort Worth also above 13%. The National Association of Realtors reports median resale price in February unchanged at $398,000 and existing‑home sales hovering around 4 million units, essentially flat from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the employment deficit has ballooned to an estimated 8.7 million jobs, far short of the 2.5 million annual hires needed to sustain demand.

Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Young of the NAR claims “housing affordability is improving and consumers are responding,” a statement the presenter challenges by highlighting that wage growth now outpaces price growth by only four points and that the pool of qualified buyers is shrinking. The New York Fed and FRBNY research corroborate the link between rising unemployment and mortgage distress, noting delinquency spikes in low‑income zip codes and a 0.6‑percentage‑point jump in counties with worsening job markets.

The convergence of stagnant sales, soaring delinquencies and a deep labor‑market gap suggests the housing bust is shifting from a macro‑economic correction to a financial crisis. Investors and policymakers should monitor Texas and similar regions as early indicators of broader credit stress, recognizing that lower rates alone will not revive demand without substantive job growth.

Original Description

We’ve been covering the macro housing bust for some time, and while it’s still there another major problem has come up and for the same reasons. Mortgage delinquencies and even foreclosures have come into the conversation, especially in places like Texas. Rates continue to tick lower but no one is buying houses, home price growth has completely stalled, and now more borrowers are falling behind on their loans.
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