Toast Releases Q4 Trends Report, February Price Monitor

Why It Matters

The findings signal tightening margins for coffee‑centric venues and highlight the need for dynamic pricing strategies as consumer preferences evolve. Restaurant operators can leverage the granular price data to fine‑tune menus and protect profitability amid modest inflation.

Key Takeaways

• Drip coffee sales down 3.3%, cold brew down 2.2%
• Barista lattes up 4%, espresso up 3.3%
• Median drip coffee price $3.65, +4.3% YoY
• Burger median price $14.64, flat YoY growth
• Tipping stable; Delaware tops at 21.8%

Pulse Analysis

Toast’s quarterly trends report offers a rare, data‑driven snapshot of how the U.S. restaurant landscape is adjusting to post‑pandemic consumer behavior. Coffee sales illustrate a clear pivot: while traditional drip and cold‑brew volumes slipped, barista‑crafted lattes and espresso shots gained traction, underscoring a growing appetite for premium, experience‑focused beverages. This shift is amplified by rising bean‑belt production costs, which have pushed median drip coffee prices to $3.65—a 4.3% year‑over‑year increase—pressuring margins for both quick‑service and full‑service establishments.

The February 2026 Menu Price Monitor adds another layer of insight by tracking staple items such as burgers, cold brew, and beer. Burger prices remain relatively stable at $14.64, suggesting that meat‑price volatility has eased, while cold‑brew and regular coffee continue modest climbs of 0.5% and 1.1% month‑over‑month, respectively. These incremental adjustments reflect a broader inflationary backdrop where operators must balance cost recovery with price sensitivity. By benchmarking against year‑over‑year changes—2.7% for burgers and over 4% for coffee—restaurants can strategically time menu revisions and promotional tactics.

Tipping dynamics, often an overlooked profitability lever, stayed flat across the quarter, with Delaware emerging as the most generous state at 21.8% and California anchoring the low end at 17.2%. Stable tip percentages imply that labor cost forecasts remain predictable, yet regional disparities highlight the importance of localized staffing and service models. For restaurateurs, integrating Toast’s granular data into revenue management systems enables more precise forecasting, menu engineering, and competitive positioning in an increasingly data‑centric hospitality market.