Recent Posts
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Iran Strike Could Spike Oil Above $90, Duration Key
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Iran's Infrastructure Attacks Raise Oil Risk Beyond Market Assumptions
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Venezuela's Oil Revival Is Overhyped, Still Decayed
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Confusion Over “Double Tail” Amid Oil Price Concerns
I doubt many people have any idea what you mean by “the built in double tail” or how that relates to my post on oil prices and geological fear about the Iran situation @B2Balzer
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
US Iran Strike Would Spark Prolonged, Global Fallout
If the US strikes Iran, it won’t be a weekend event, writes @TheMichaelEvery Retaliation risks include terror cells in Europe The broader Middle East is flammable Energy markets are rightly pricing tail risk—but the real question is duration, not ignition #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
LNG Exports Surpass US Domestic Gas Use, Taxpayers Fund Profits
LNG exports volumes are now higher than gas for US homes or businesses The public is subsidizing corporate oil & gas company profits. Long live Make America Great Again https://t.co/cKeIFab7A4 #NaturalGas #LNG #EnergyMarkets #ElectricityPrices #USPolitics #EnergySecurity
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
China Buys US LNG, Redirects It to Europe
China hasn’t stopped buying U.S. LNG It’s just not burning it at home. Long-term contracts still bind the two systems Flexible LNG markets let China arbitrage politics by diverting cargoes to Europe. Does anyone on Team Trump know this? https://t.co/CacMbcaSMk #LNG #China #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #TradeWar #NaturalGas
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Power Costs, Not Tariffs, Decide Aluminum Smelter Survival
Trump tariffs couldn’t save a major U.S. aluminum smelter Smelting lives or dies on cheap, reliable power AI and data centers now outcompete metalmaking for electricity. Tariffs are the minor leagues. Energy is the big show. https://t.co/z7ZanDwxd5 #Aluminum #EnergyPolicy #Manufacturing #AI #Trade #PowerMarkets
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Geopolitical Fears Add Incremental Risk Premium to Oil
Oil rallied on fear Iran headlines + Israel alerts = instant risk premium in a tight market But geopolitics don't matter. Except they do in small continuous increments that convert to a steady aggregate premium. https://t.co/6vQGj7YEmu #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #Iran #EnergySecurity #crudeoil
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Libya Redirects Oil Payments From Russia to Western Traders
Libya is cutting Russia out of its oil trade Fuel imports are shifting away from Russia toward large Western traders Sanctions didn’t “punish” Libya into changing behavior. They reshaped who gets paid. https://t.co/pmKRlqgEK1 #OilMarkets #Libya #EnergyGeopolitics #Sanctions #OPEC #crudeoil
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
States Sue Trump Over Blocked Renewable Funding
States sue Trump administration for blocking funded renewable projects Congress approved the money. The White House froze it. Now states are daring the courts to decide if the Constitution still stands. https://t.co/rYIh7fS9kw #ClimatePolicy #Federalism #EnergyPolitics #IRA #USPolitics
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 19, 2026
U.S. Refiners Accuse Trump‑linked Scheme in Venezuelan Oil
U.S. refiners want to cut out traders & Chevron from Venezuelan crude purchases. They see the Trump setup as a RIP OFF Barrels now must move thru an elite club of approved middle men. Want to bet there's a grift component flowing to...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Data Isn't Worthless; Misinterpretations Are
I strongly disagree with your statement that "the IEA is a worthless source of any data" @carldean1960 How can data be worthless? Interpretations of data & using data to push agendas can be worthless but not the data itself
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Markets Replace Climate Ambition, Accepting Risk for Profit
The podcast’s takeaway is that climate policy is becoming “pragmatic” & markets will take over from climate ambition But markets helped create the problem, and ambition never cut emissions. Calling this realism is just accepting catastrophic risk for profit @RystadEnergy #ClimateReality...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 18, 2026
IEA’s Net‑Zero Work Supports Energy Security and Stability
Net zero & climate analysis are fully compatible with the IEA’s mission of promoting energy security, economic stability & cooperation among member states @AzizSapphire @SecretaryWright is right that IEA went too far but wrong saying that net zero was all it...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Rig Counts Mislead; Production Trends Need Context
Rig counts are a weak, context-dependent signal of future production @chigrl Fewer rigs in Russia don’t mean much after a decade of fracking conventional fields. Apply the same logic to the US and you’d wrongly conclude sanctions killed output here. #OilMarkets...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Subsidized Renewables Force Nuclear Cycling, Raising Costs
More bad news for renewables Flooding a low-growth power system with subsidized wind & solar forces nuclear plants to cycle, not run steady. That raises wear, maintenance costs & financial stress, undermining the economics of existing reactors & making new nuclear harder...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Iran Opts for Limited Concessions, Postpones Real Deal Until Post‑midterms
Tehran will trade limited, face-saving concessions because it thinks it can survive bombs better than it can survive a domestic revolt. There will be a “bridge deal” that kicks the can. The real deal comes after US mid-term elections.' https://t.co/8UhDWkB5al #Iran #Israel #US #MiddleEast...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Oil Markets See Trump’s Hawkish Talk as Theater
Iran says it has “understanding on principles” with the US That was always the most likely outcome. Trump won't risk higher oil prices into an election cycle, writes @Ole_S_Hansen The oil market correctly judges his hawkish rhetoric as theater. #oil #Brent #Iran #geopolitics...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
EU's 70% Local EV Rule Risks Higher Costs, Trade Friction
The EU plans to force 70% of EVs sold in Europe to be built there Good luck requiring China to accept higher labor costs & regulatory burden. Success case: higher EV costs, slower rollout & more trade friction. Good plan https://t.co/rHXHgNgJyN #EU #EVs #industrialpolicy #protectionism...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Iran's Hormuz Drills Raise Risk Premium, Shrink Deal Space
Iran launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz “Maximum pressure” cuts both ways. Iran wants nuclear-only talk, while the US wants missiles and proxies too The “deal space” is small and the risk premium stays high. https://t.co/Gs9viHRneW #oil #Brent #Hormuz #Iran #geopolitics #energysecurity #OPEC...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Shareholders Trade Peak‑Demand Fear for Growth Appetite
Peak-demand fear is fading, and now shareholders want growth again. Which do you want? Returns or Growth? Can't have both. People in hell want ice water. https://t.co/NKcPuvbtxE #oil #energy #BigOil #Exxon #Chevron #Shell #BP #TotalEnergies #OPEC #reserves #MAndA #markets #investing #geopolitics
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
AI Surge Forces Jet Engines Into Data Center Turbines
AI power demand is so desperate we’re turning jet engines into gas turbines. It’s a workaround for years-long turbine wait lists The competition to see which AI companies survive is the main driver. https://t.co/LFKExUsqcY #AI #datacenters #power #naturalgas #turbines #energy #grid #infrastructure #aviation #markets
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Copper Price Surge Fuels BHP's Profit Growth
Who could have seen this coming? Higher copper prices are BHP's main profit driver. https://t.co/ifvnq0Y31l #BHP #copper #mining #commodities #energytransition #AI #electrification #China #ironore #markets
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Sinokor's 120‑tanker Dominance Spikes Freight, Rattles Oil Markets
South Korean Sinokor now controls 120 oil tankers When one buyer controls the tradable fleet, charterers panic-book, freight spikes, and shocks bleeds into physical oil prices and spreads. https://t.co/Z2GsMyfbtl #oil #tankers #VLCC #shipping #freight #supplychain #sanctions #geopolitics #markets #energy
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Oil Markets Now Price in Constant Tail‑risk
“Brent drops to $60 if Iran tension fades,” says SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop. Sure — until the next mini-shock. That’s the point: this isn’t anomaly anymore It’s the baseline. Oil trades on recurring tail risk at the margin. https://t.co/qqfYS0QUG9 #oil #Brent #OPEC #Iran #geopolitics...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 16, 2026
AI‑gas Hype Overlooks Real Grid Deliverability Constraints
The “AI drives a gas buildout” narrative skips the only thing that matters: DELIVERABILITY @marthamuir25 Turbine lead times are years & interconnection queues are jammed, The grid can’t supply firm power on schedule. Megawatts in press releases aren’t megawatts to the...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Floating LNG Cuts Risk, Revives Gas Exports
Onshore LNG is becoming a security and politics nightmare. That’s why floating LNG is back: faster build, smaller upfront risk And you can park it offshore instead of betting $20B on land stability Lease-and-move models make gas exportable again. https://t.co/wMnwOPoyxv #LNG #FLNG #energy #naturalgas...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Sheinbaum Halts Cuba Oil to Evade Trump Tariffs
Mexico's Sheinbaum is stopping oil flow to Cuba to dodge Trump’s tariff threat It risks backlash inside Morena’s pro-Cuba wing--her own party. https://t.co/A4rwOfLqHy #Mexico #Sheinbaum #Cuba #Morena #geopolitics #oil #sanctions #trade #tariffs #latam
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 16, 2026
California's Gasoline Costs Rise From Bahamas Imports
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 15, 2026
U.S. NatGas Spread Widens as Prompt Prices Drop
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread widened $0.10 (10%) on lower prompt price April contract fell $0.13 (4%) from $3.23 to $3.10 week ending February 13 Front-month price decreased $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Natural Gas Prices Dip, No Rally Expected
The natural gas party is over U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.18 (5%) from $3.42 to $3.24 week ending February 6 My outlook suggests a modest floor Increase (~$0.25), not a rally forming #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 15, 2026
China’s Renewable Surge Fueled by Coal, Not Climate
Your green cheerleading misses the power politics @dominictsz China’s solar and wind boom is built on COAL, backed by COAL, and financed by COAL. It’s the world’s LARGEST CARBON EMITTER — and it’s not chasing climate virtue, it’s chasing energy...
By Art Berman Blog
Social•Feb 15, 2026
Speculators Turn to Oil for Stability Amid Market Turmoil
Speculative money is leaning back into oil as traders look for stability in a volatile world writes @Ole_S_Hansen Oil is becoming the preferred risk exposure in an otherwise uncertain macro landscape. Relative calm in crude contrasts with violent reversals in precious...
By Art Berman Blog