Art Berman Blog

Art Berman Blog

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Oil & gas markets, macro, geology‑informed energy analysis.

Coal-to-Liquids Remains Uneconomic and Unscalable, History Shows
SocialApr 15, 2026

Coal-to-Liquids Remains Uneconomic and Unscalable, History Shows

Pay attention @andrewsun_83 100 years of history at all oil prices says coal-to-liquids is uneconomic. Even if it were, it can't scale. End of story. Stop beating a dead horse that decomposed and disintegrated before either of us were born.

By Art Berman Blog
Decades‑long Water Floods
SocialApr 15, 2026

Decades‑long Water Floods

The example cited was a limited test on a field that had not yet had a water flood @infinitelyblank The fields in Iraq have been on water flood for decades. In the best case, the wells will take weeks to months...

By Art Berman Blog
US Blames
SocialApr 15, 2026

US Blames

Of course US treasury says China can't get oil from Iran. It's part of Trump's fake-reality propaganda machine The US is late to the party because it's been ENERGY BLIND A blockade of Iran's oil should have happened on Trump's Day 1 January...

By Art Berman Blog
Energy Shock Just Beginning, World Faces Unprecedented Recovery Crisis
SocialApr 15, 2026

Energy Shock Just Beginning, World Faces Unprecedented Recovery Crisis

The energy pain hasn’t hit yet—it’s just starting says @OpenSquareCap He's right but it's worse than that Even if Hormuz reopens, the world may never fully recover from this shock To find an event on this scale, you have to go back...

By Art Berman Blog
Analysts Lack Field Experience, Misjudge Oil Supply Solutions
SocialApr 15, 2026

Analysts Lack Field Experience, Misjudge Oil Supply Solutions

Most oil analysts are amateurs with zero oil & gas operational experience That's why they think fixing Hormuz will solve the supply crisis. Have them watch a flow test on a well that's been shut in for a few weeks Or take...

By Art Berman Blog
China's Oil Reserves Outpace U.S., Reducing Shock Risk
SocialApr 15, 2026

China's Oil Reserves Outpace U.S., Reducing Shock Risk

China is better prepared for an oil system shock that any major power They've been planning and preparing for decades China is not immune The US is more vulnerable than China because our oil is light beer OK for a buzz but not the...

By Art Berman Blog
Closing Hormuz Harms All, Not Just China
SocialApr 15, 2026

Closing Hormuz Harms All, Not Just China

Reductive nonsense @DrJStrategy I could be more strident "Closing Hormuz hurts China” is fantasy It hurts EVERYONE—starting with the system the U.S. sits at the center of You call yourself a strategist. Run your dumb idea thru a chat bot to see what an...

By Art Berman Blog
Iran Won't Abandon Enrichment, Missiles, or Proxies
SocialApr 15, 2026

Iran Won't Abandon Enrichment, Missiles, or Proxies

Let's get real people Iran is not going to give up uranium enrichment, its missile program or proxy network says @citrinowicz Time to stop the wishful thinking & deal with what is--not what some political tool says might be

By Art Berman Blog
China’s Coal‑to‑Oil Project Too Small to Matter
SocialApr 15, 2026

China’s Coal‑to‑Oil Project Too Small to Matter

China's coal to oil is physically small @gordonschuecker @FootnotesGuy It has nothing to do with war planning It's a science project because China is an oil have-not but has lots of coal It can't scale to more than a few % of...

By Art Berman Blog
Coal-to-Liquids: Costly, Unscalable, and Fundamentally Obsolete
SocialApr 14, 2026

Coal-to-Liquids: Costly, Unscalable, and Fundamentally Obsolete

Coal-to-liquids has been a failed technology for almost 100 years @LucanusLonginus It was too expensive & unscalable in a world of abundance It looks even more ridiculous in the Mad Max scenario we approach unless we come to our senses...

By Art Berman Blog
U.S. Oil Reliance Shows Energy Independence Is Illusion
SocialApr 14, 2026

U.S. Oil Reliance Shows Energy Independence Is Illusion

U.S. Oil Supply: 60% Domestic, 40% Imported “Energy Independence” Is a Myth #Oil #Energy #EnergyIndependence #Geopolitics #USOil #CrudeOil #EnergySecurity https://t.co/6yh7LlchQD

By Art Berman Blog
Blockade Fails: Tankers Slip Through, Policy Reality Gap Grows
SocialApr 14, 2026

Blockade Fails: Tankers Slip Through, Policy Reality Gap Grows

You're doing a great job, Brownie Day one of the “blockade” and tankers are already getting through Some even sanctioned. The gap between policy and reality is widening. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/6WFpxr9cpF

By Art Berman Blog
IEA Warns Forced Oil Contraction Amid Record Supply Loss
SocialApr 14, 2026

IEA Warns Forced Oil Contraction Amid Record Supply Loss

IEA just confirmed it: Record supply loss, collapsing demand, inventories draining. This isn’t a price spike—it’s forced contraction. Reopen Hormuz or brace for impact. https://t.co/Svzz77tows #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
Blockade Risks Crippling Global Oil System, Not Just Iran
SocialApr 14, 2026

Blockade Risks Crippling Global Oil System, Not Just Iran

The blockade is meant to break Iran—but it may break the system first, writes @TheMichaelEvery & @BenPicton1 Iran's storage fills quickly—leading to well shut-ins & potential permanent capacity loss Removing ~2 mb/d hits an already stressed system and adds to what...

By Art Berman Blog
Iran's Energy Crisis Poised
SocialApr 14, 2026

Iran's Energy Crisis Poised

The noise about the Iran and energy crisis is deafening @dshephard A signal will emerge when its catastrophic economic effects show up in people's lives. It's happening in some places already but not yet in the US where it matters to...

By Art Berman Blog
Energy Abundance Ends; Oil Crisis Is a Wake‑up Call
SocialApr 14, 2026

Energy Abundance Ends; Oil Crisis Is a Wake‑up Call

This isn’t an oil shock It’s the end of pretending energy abundance is forever. Hormuz isn’t the crisis. It’s the wake-up call. #Energy #Oil #Geopolitics https://t.co/RqbgleO9zK

By Art Berman Blog
Chinese Tanker Slips Through Hormuz, US Credibility Plummets
SocialApr 14, 2026

Chinese Tanker Slips Through Hormuz, US Credibility Plummets

A sanctioned, Chinese-linked tanker just passed through Hormuz—despite the “blockade.” If ships are moving, enforcement isn’t working. US credibility was at all-time lows Now it's in negative territory. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
U.S. Policy Turns Improvised Chaos Under Trump
SocialApr 14, 2026

U.S. Policy Turns Improvised Chaos Under Trump

The US has shifted from strategy to improvisation. Trump's late night manias become the next day's plan. “No nukes” became “how long can you enrich?” Missiles disappeared from the agenda. Federico Fellini could not have scripted this https://t.co/kSVxuuu3Ym

By Art Berman Blog
Rising Deficits Make Diesel Rationing Inevitable
SocialApr 14, 2026

Rising Deficits Make Diesel Rationing Inevitable

As deficits grow, rationing becomes unavoidable—especially for diesel, writes @markfny Governments can delay it—but not stop it. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
Refinery Cuts Threaten Buffers, Triggering Oil Supply Cliff
SocialApr 14, 2026

Refinery Cuts Threaten Buffers, Triggering Oil Supply Cliff

The system isn’t adjusting—it’s depleting. Inventories are masking the shock while demand is being forced lower, writes @HFI_Research If refinery cuts jump to ~8 mbd, the buffers won’t last. The cliff is approaching #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
China’s Real Focus: Gulf Trade, Not Iranian Oil
SocialApr 14, 2026

China’s Real Focus: Gulf Trade, Not Iranian Oil

China may buy Iran’s oil—but its real bet is the Gulf, writes @glcarlstrom Far more trade, far more investment. No way Beijing risks that for a few discounted barrels. #Oil #China #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
Iran Delegation Lacks Authority, Stalling US Talks; Thursday Negotiations Possible
SocialApr 14, 2026

Iran Delegation Lacks Authority, Stalling US Talks; Thursday Negotiations Possible

Vance says talks with Iran stalled because its delegation didn't have authority to deal. Saudi is pressing the US to resume talks A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran may be held on Thursday

By Art Berman Blog
Ship Breaks Hormuz Blockade, Enters Open Ocean
SocialApr 13, 2026

Ship Breaks Hormuz Blockade, Enters Open Ocean

The ship passed through Hormuz and is now in the Indian Ocean @OuncesApp. The blockade failed. No special circumstances. Hormuz to open ocean. Next excuse?

By Art Berman Blog
US Blockade Fails as Sanctioned Tanker Slips Through Hormuz
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Blockade Fails as Sanctioned Tanker Slips Through Hormuz

The U.S. blockade failed its first real-world test. A sanctioned, partially laden shadow tanker sailed through Hormuz on day one. Either enforcement is incompetent —or the blockade was never meant to be more than theater. https://t.co/jENsTJWpLt #OilMarkets #Hormuz #energysecurity

By Art Berman Blog
Dollar Resists Petrodollar Collapse, Fueled by U.S. Counterattack
SocialApr 13, 2026

Dollar Resists Petrodollar Collapse, Fueled by U.S. Counterattack

The “petrodollar collapse” story gets it backwards. China was eroding it slowly. The Iran war just forced the U.S. back into the game. Control flows, control currency. The storm is real. The dollar isn’t dying—it’s fighting back. https://t.co/7oWpaZUa7T

By Art Berman Blog
US Oil Shift Doubles Asia Shipping Distance, Cuts Supply
SocialApr 13, 2026

US Oil Shift Doubles Asia Shipping Distance, Cuts Supply

Replacing Persian Gulf supply with US barrels doubles shipping distances to Asia This effectively cuts deliverable supply due to tanker availability. https://t.co/MorwvZn1VE

By Art Berman Blog
Spreads Reveal Risk Premium Amid Brent Rally
SocialApr 13, 2026

Spreads Reveal Risk Premium Amid Brent Rally

Everyone’s chasing flat price. That’s the crowded trade but spreads tell the truth, notes @tchiling Brent rallied on blockade headlines, but structure broke last week and is only partially recovering. This is risk premium, not full-blown tightness—yet. #Oil #Energy #Trading #Brent...

By Art Berman Blog
Gulf's Complexity Makes Hormuz Seizure Strategy Unrealistic
SocialApr 13, 2026

Gulf's Complexity Makes Hormuz Seizure Strategy Unrealistic

Seizing “key terrain” in Hormuz & wiping out IRGC threats is naive fantasy @MCTothSTL The Gulf is too big, too complex, and too vulnerable to cheap disruption for that to work. Lindsey Graham strategy at its finest. #Energy #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
Korea's Mars Sour Market Is Tiny and Competitive
SocialApr 13, 2026

Korea's Mars Sour Market Is Tiny and Competitive

Just because there’s a market for Mars medium heavy sour in Korea, the supply is small & competive @dlawbailey That means the demand is irrelevant If by “GoM” you mean light crude, there’s no “big market” in Korea.

By Art Berman Blog
Tanker Owners Shift Any Crude, Paid for Floating Storage
SocialApr 13, 2026

Tanker Owners Shift Any Crude, Paid for Floating Storage

Thanks exactly right @dlawbailey Tanker owners need to move crude. It doesn't matter if it's US light that's not fit for purpose. They're getting paid. Some if it will be used. The rest is floating storage. https://t.co/IW1YHmy5g5

By Art Berman Blog
Trump’s Hormuz “Blockade” Is Empty Theater, Ineffective
SocialApr 13, 2026

Trump’s Hormuz “Blockade” Is Empty Theater, Ineffective

The Hormuz blockade isn’t a blockade. It’s typical Trump performative bullshit—lots of noise, no substance. It’s indirect pressure done remotely from OUTSIDE the Persian Gulf. That can’t work. The Gulf is too big, too porous, and too prone to cheap disruption to seal. It's Trump's...

By Art Berman Blog
Tehran’s Hormuz Blockade Outlasts Trump’s Fleeting Economic Leverage
SocialApr 12, 2026

Tehran’s Hormuz Blockade Outlasts Trump’s Fleeting Economic Leverage

Markets vs Blockade Guess who wins? A hormuz blockade bets on the only thing Trump doesn't have--time, writes @OpenSquareCap The global economy gives Trump a week or two Tehran can wait longer #Hormuz #EnergyWar #Geopolitics #Oil

By Art Berman Blog
Iran, Houthis Threaten Two Oil Chokepoints, Spiking Prices
SocialApr 12, 2026

Iran, Houthis Threaten Two Oil Chokepoints, Spiking Prices

Iran to Trump: we’ll see you & raise you Iran has only to have the Houthis disrupt Bab al-Mandab too writes @GMonroyEnergy Two chokepoints, one overstretched navy, and oil spikes hard So much winning #Oil #Hormuz #RedSea https://t.co/bgBh1UdjUZ

By Art Berman Blog
Blockading Hormuz: Massive Costs, Cheap Disruption Wins
SocialApr 12, 2026

Blockading Hormuz: Massive Costs, Cheap Disruption Wins

A Hormuz blockade is a complex ACT OF WAR It demands MASSIVE NAVAL RESOURCES & constant coordination You commit carriers, fleets, allies…and still get undermined by mines, drones, CYBER, and fear BIG POWER VS CHEAP DISRUPTION Does anyone hear an echo from the last...

By Art Berman Blog
Hormuz Blockade Threatens US Humiliation and Warship Losses
SocialApr 12, 2026

Hormuz Blockade Threatens US Humiliation and Warship Losses

Attempting a Hormuz blockade will be a humiliating defeat for the US Iranian drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles will potentially damage or destroy US warships #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #NavalWarfare #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #GlobalRisk #EnergyCrisis #ShippingLanes #MilitaryStrategy

By Art Berman Blog
US NatGas Futures Slip to $2.65, Outlook Flat
SocialApr 12, 2026

US NatGas Futures Slip to $2.65, Outlook Flat

U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.15 from $2.80 to $2.65 for the week ending April 10 Price is likely to move sideways or fall slightly on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/61URlYt6Lw

By Art Berman Blog
US Crude Unsuitable for Diesel, Jet; Tankers Turn Storage
SocialApr 12, 2026

US Crude Unsuitable for Diesel, Jet; Tankers Turn Storage

Curb your enthusiasm US oil is no good for diesel or jet fuel @Matalasdavid It’s pale lager where stout ale is needed Tankers filling up on US crude will become floating storage

By Art Berman Blog
Economic Crisis Looms as Rivals Advance Unchecked
SocialApr 12, 2026

Economic Crisis Looms as Rivals Advance Unchecked

Prepare for the economic shitstorm Negotiations won’t solve this More fighting won’t solve this Export the problem to the rest of the world Meanwhile, China & Russia face fewer distractions & continue advancing their agendas, writes @_HenryBolton

By Art Berman Blog
Trump Declares Victory Despite Failed US‑Iran Talks
SocialApr 12, 2026

Trump Declares Victory Despite Failed US‑Iran Talks

US-Iran Talks End in Failure What a joke to imagine a deal could be done in 1 day “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me,” Trump said. “And the reason is because we’ve won.” https://t.co/zMb3ZWwssw

By Art Berman Blog
U.S. Imports Oil because Domestic Crude Lacks Needed Qualities
SocialApr 12, 2026

U.S. Imports Oil because Domestic Crude Lacks Needed Qualities

Energy blind @Hwy41 Why do you think the US imports 6.5 mmb/d and exports 4 mmb/d? Not all oil is the same Because our oil isn't the right kind to make many of the products we need In a connected world, no one...

By Art Berman Blog
US Ammo Shortage Makes Attacks and Escorts Futile
SocialApr 12, 2026

US Ammo Shortage Makes Attacks and Escorts Futile

Neither resuming attacks or escorting ships will work @hankzhaotx The US is out of ammo so attacks won't work Tanker owners won't take the risk so escorts won't work. Sometimes we have to accept reality. Iran didn't win but we lost.

By Art Berman Blog
Bombing Alone Won’t Win Iran War, Feasibility Matters
SocialApr 12, 2026

Bombing Alone Won’t Win Iran War, Feasibility Matters

The Iran War didn’t fail in execution—it failed in feasibility History is clear: bombing alone rarely delivers regime change or decisive outcomes But Pentagon experience gets filtered It compresses uncertainty & elevates risks that look manageable While downplaying the risks that aren’t #IranWar #MilitaryStrategy #AirPower...

By Art Berman Blog
Cheap Drones Turn War Into Saturation Chaos
SocialApr 12, 2026

Cheap Drones Turn War Into Saturation Chaos

March 1 at a thinly fortified Kuwaiti port showed the future of war. Cheap Iranian drones hit without warning—no front lines, no safety, just chaos. This is now a war of saturation, where disruption at scale beats dominance. #Iran #Drones #Warfare https://t.co/R3QbmM0fDj

By Art Berman Blog
Extreme Oil Volatility Erodes Profits, Forces Adaptation
SocialApr 11, 2026

Extreme Oil Volatility Erodes Profits, Forces Adaptation

Extreme oil price volatility kills trading profits When prices spike and collapse in days, even the best traders get burned Paper markets lose while physical traders try to adapt to chaos. https://t.co/NCTf0WILzE #OilMarkets #Volatility #Energy #Trading

By Art Berman Blog
US Mine‑Clearing Claim False; Hormuz Access Remains Limited
SocialApr 11, 2026

US Mine‑Clearing Claim False; Hormuz Access Remains Limited

US warships intent to clear mines isn't a "lie" as you claim @adamscochran The real story is that the U.S. CAN enter Hormuz--IT'S NOT CLOSED Safe passage isn't guaranteed--that's why tankers WON'T pass The spin is about control. The reality is about limits....

By Art Berman Blog
Drones Flip Warfare Economics: Cheap Swarms Outsmart Expensive Defenses
SocialApr 11, 2026

Drones Flip Warfare Economics: Cheap Swarms Outsmart Expensive Defenses

Drones mark a new tipping point in warfare On par with gunpowder or coal-powered navies. They change the economics: Cheap, scalable attacks versus expensive, finite defenses. $50K drones vs $3M interceptors. Volume beats precision. Cost beats sophistication. https://t.co/ZOwRomeqLO #Drones #Warfare #AsymmetricWarfare #MilitaryTech #Geopolitics

By Art Berman Blog
Brent Front‑month Crashes, 12‑month Spread Narrows
SocialApr 11, 2026

Brent Front‑month Crashes, 12‑month Spread Narrows

Brent futures 12-month spread narrowed $16.45 (48%) 6-month spread widened $15.36 (54%) for the week ending April 10 Front-month price fell $13.83 (13%) from $109.03 to $95.20 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/gqclIvmfUr

By Art Berman Blog
Natural Gas Isn’t a Viable Car Fuel, only Electricity
SocialApr 11, 2026

Natural Gas Isn’t a Viable Car Fuel, only Electricity

I didn't say anything about natural gas @NGLFundamentals @RKelanic didn't either in her article except as part of electric power generation 👇 https://t.co/R5Mz43vnmO

By Art Berman Blog
US Warships Enter Hormuz, Raising Iran Tension Concerns
SocialApr 11, 2026

US Warships Enter Hormuz, Raising Iran Tension Concerns

US warships just crossed Hormuz. Earth to Trump: WTF? Are you ending negotiations with Iran? Are you claiming Hormuz? Planning to occupy Iran? I know a plan is a lot to ask. #Hormuz #Geopolitics #OilMarkets https://t.co/EQxOGT4dzM

By Art Berman Blog