Multi-Scenario Land Use Change and Its Effects on Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Compensation in the Middle Yangtze River

Why It Matters

The findings provide policymakers with scenario‑based evidence to balance economic growth and ecosystem protection, guiding targeted ecological compensation and land‑use planning in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Key Takeaways

• EDP scenario adds 5.5% built-up land, loses 1% ESV.
• Low‑ESV zones grow 476 km², 2.7× increase.
• EPP scenario cuts urban area 10.2%, protects services.
• High‑value ESV zones cluster in forests and water bodies.
• PLUS model supports scenario‑based ecological compensation planning.

Pulse Analysis

Land‑use and land‑cover change remains a pivotal driver of ecosystem service value, yet traditional valuation often overlooks spatial heterogeneity such as slope effects. By integrating a slope‑adaptive ESV framework with the Patch‑generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, researchers achieved a 95% overall accuracy in mapping services across the Middle Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration. This methodological leap enables more precise quantification of how urban expansion, agricultural shifts, and restoration efforts translate into economic and environmental outcomes, offering a template for other river basins facing similar pressures.

The scenario analysis paints a stark contrast between development‑centric and conservation‑centric pathways. Under the Economic Development Priority (EDP) scenario, built‑up areas swell by 5.5%, pushing low‑value service zones up by 476 km² and eroding total ESV by just over 1%. Conversely, the Ecological Protection Priority (EPP) scenario reverses urban growth, shrinking urban footprints by 10.2% and preserving high‑value services in forests and water bodies. These divergent trajectories highlight the need for differentiated ecological compensation mechanisms that reward land‑owners for maintaining or restoring high‑service landscapes while directing growth toward lower‑impact zones.

For investors, planners, and regulators, the study underscores the strategic advantage of scenario‑driven land‑use planning. The ability to forecast ecosystem service trends under distinct policy mixes equips decision‑makers with a quantitative basis for allocating development rights, designing green infrastructure, and setting compensation rates that reflect true ecological costs. As Chinese megacities continue to expand, replicating this high‑resolution, multi‑scenario approach could become a cornerstone of sustainable urbanization, aligning economic ambitions with the long‑term health of vital riverine ecosystems.