SE Asia May Fit the Bill as Forwarders Shy Away From US ‘Tariff Silliness’

Why It Matters

The pivot diversifies European supply chains, reducing tariff risk while unlocking growth in emerging Asian markets. It signals a lasting reallocation of freight volumes away from the US toward more stable, high‑growth corridors.

Key Takeaways

• European forwarders shifting focus from US to SE Asia.
• Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam see steady import growth.
• Expected 7‑8% annual import increase in Malaysia.
• Air freight dominates Vietnam shipments; ocean for Indonesia, Malaysia.
• Government infrastructure investments drive long‑term logistics demand.

Pulse Analysis

The escalation of protectionist measures in the United States has prompted European freight forwarders to reassess their transatlantic exposure. With tariffs fluctuating unpredictably, many firms are actively seeking alternative corridors that promise stability and growth. South‑East Asia has emerged as a logical destination, buoyed by the broader “China+1” diversification strategy that encourages manufacturers to relocate or expand beyond mainland China. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are now attracting attention not only for their export capacity but also for rising import demand that can offset the loss of US‑centric volumes.

Forwarders reporting to industry outlets note that import volumes in the region are expected to rise by 7‑8% annually, with Malaysia highlighted as a near‑term beneficiary. The modal split varies: Vietnam’s high‑value, time‑critical cargo is predominantly shipped by air—approximately 80 to 90 tonnes per month—while Indonesia and Malaysia rely more heavily on ocean freight, handling around 20 tonnes each month. Although current tonnages are modest compared with traditional lanes, the consistency of growth and the diversification of cargo types, from machinery to hi‑tech equipment, signal a durable market shift.

The strategic emphasis on government‑backed infrastructure projects underpins this optimism. Southeast Asian capitals are investing heavily in ports, rail links and digital customs platforms, which reduces transit times and improves reliability for both ocean and air shipments. For logistics providers, the shift offers an opportunity to develop value‑added services such as warehousing, last‑mile delivery and supply‑chain analytics tailored to the region’s expanding manufacturing base. As e‑commerce stabilises and industrial demand accelerates, forwarders that embed themselves in these emerging corridors can capture higher margins while mitigating the volatility associated with US tariff policy.