Early Signals About Retail Sales : An Advance Data Release From the Chicago Fed

Why It Matters

CARTS gives policymakers and investors a higher‑frequency gauge of retail demand, enabling faster reaction to emerging economic shifts before official monthly numbers arrive.

Key Takeaways

• CARTS provides weekly retail sales estimates aligned with MRTS.
• Weekly CARTS data match monthly Census figures from April 2025‑Mar 2026.
• Data series extend beyond official MRTS releases for early trend spotting.
• Historical CARTS series available back to Jan 2018, including inflation‑adjusted values.
• Researchers can use ALFRED to view CARTS revisions on specific dates.

Pulse Analysis

The Chicago Fed’s Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) fills a long‑standing gap in economic data by delivering weekly, high‑frequency estimates of retail and food‑service sales. Traditional retail metrics, such as the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey, are released only once a month, leaving a lag that can obscure rapid shifts in consumer behavior. By benchmarking weekly data to the MRTS, CARTS provides a near‑real‑time proxy that mirrors official figures while extending the timeline forward, allowing analysts to spot turning points in spending patterns weeks earlier than before.

For market participants, the value of CARTS lies in its ability to inform short‑term forecasts and monetary‑policy decisions. Retail sales are a key component of GDP and a leading indicator of consumer confidence; earlier insight can sharpen equity valuations, bond pricing, and inflation expectations. Moreover, the series includes inflation‑adjusted sales and a dedicated price index, helping economists separate volume growth from price effects—a critical distinction when assessing the health of the economy amid volatile inflation dynamics.

The integration of CARTS into FRED and its availability through ALFRED also enhances research reproducibility. Users can retrieve historical revisions, compare weekly estimates against monthly benchmarks, and back‑test models with a consistent data series dating back to 2018. This transparency supports more robust econometric analyses and improves the credibility of policy commentary. As the data set matures, its influence on forecasting tools and real‑time economic dashboards is likely to grow, making CARTS an indispensable resource for anyone tracking U.S. consumer activity.