Retire With Ryan
How To Manage The Impact From the IRAN War On Your Retirement Portfolio, #299
Why It Matters
Understanding the financial ripple effects of geopolitical events helps retirees protect their nest eggs and stay on track for a secure retirement. By applying disciplined, long‑term investing habits now, listeners can turn short‑term market turbulence into buying opportunities and tax advantages, making the episode especially relevant amid current global uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- •S&P 500 fell ~6% since Iran war began
- •Crude oil jumped ~33% to $90‑$100 per barrel
- •Buy dips, rebalance, automate to smooth retirement portfolio volatility
- •Tax‑loss harvesting offsets gains in taxable investment accounts
- •Increase bond allocation as retirement approaches to lower risk
Pulse Analysis
The Iran‑Israel conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026 sent crude oil soaring from roughly $60 to $100 per barrel, a 33‑percent jump that pushed the S&P 500 down about 6 percent in the first month. Higher energy costs squeezed profit margins across sectors, prompting a swift market sell‑off. A few days later President Trump announced peace talks, oil slipped toward $90, and the index recovered roughly 2 percent. Investors therefore face a classic geopolitical shock: short‑term volatility driven by commodity spikes, but historically such spikes recede once supply routes reopen.
Financial advisers recommend using the dip to reinforce long‑term positions. With cash or money‑market balances, investors can buy undervalued stocks or sector ETFs, especially technology shares down 10 percent. Maintaining a target asset mix—often 60 percent equities and 40 percent bonds for pre‑retirees—helps smooth returns; rebalancing back to the target after a market swing reduces risk. Automating contributions through 401(k)s, Roth IRAs, or HSAs ensures dollar‑cost averaging, so each paycheck buys more shares when prices are low. As retirement nears, shifting a larger share into bonds further dampens portfolio volatility while preserving growth potential.
Tax‑loss harvesting adds another layer of protection for taxable accounts. Selling a fund at a $4,000 loss, for example, creates a deduction that can offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income and any capital gains, improving after‑tax returns. Investors should also consider maxing out IRA or Roth contributions before year‑end to lock in lower prices and benefit from tax‑deferred growth. Diversifying with low‑cost index funds rather than speculative picks reduces under‑performance risk. While market shocks are unsettling, disciplined strategies—buying the dip, rebalancing, automating, and harvesting losses—help retirees stay on track toward a secure retirement.
Episode Description
The Iran War, which began on February 28, 2026, is impacting global markets and I'm pretty sure it's having an effect on your portfolio too. Over the past month, the S&P 500 has dropped about 6%, largely due to surging oil prices. With crude oil climbing as high as $100 a barrel and lingering uncertainty around the conflict's resolution, volatility is weighing heavily on retirement investments.
We'll explore the implications for investors, discuss historical parallels with previous market shocks, and offer practical tips to navigate the fallout—whether you're looking to rebalance, automate your contributions, or take advantage of tax-loss selling. Stay tuned as I break down actionable strategies to manage your portfolio through these turbulent times, and hear why it's important to avoid overreacting despite the dramatic headlines.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
[00:00] Impact of the Iran war on the global market
[02:55] Market movements since the Iran war began
[05:20] Strategies for dealing with portfolio volatility
[06:29] Why buy into the market right now
[07.39] Rebalance your portfolio to prepare for retirement
[08:50] Continue to automate your investments
[10:14] Evaluate your underperforming investments
[11:12] How to create a tax loss that works for you
Oil Prices and Stock Market Declines
Since the war began, the S&P 500 index has fallen approximately 6%, a drop largely attributed to a sharp increase in crude oil prices. Oil prices spiked from $67.29 per barrel on the eve of the conflict to as high as $100, currently stabilizing around $90 at the time of recording. This represents a 33% climb post-conflict climb and as much as a 50% jump compared to prices in recent months.
This sudden rise is far from the norm, and it's a clear demonstration of how tensions in resource-rich regions can send shockwaves throughout global markets. Higher oil prices raise production costs across industries, cut into profits, and reduce consumer spending power—all factors that undermine future earnings and push stock valuations lower.
Volatility Is Nothing New
While the current drop may feel alarming, it's important to remember that market declines happen regularly and often recover just as quickly. President Trump's tariff proposals from the last year, pushed the S&P 500 down 18% before tensions eased and the market rebounded to close the year up 18%. This historical context reassures investors that dramatic events can have both short-lived and long-term effects, but resilience and recovery are common themes in market history.
Strategies for Navigating Volatility
I recommend several strategies for managing portfolio volatility, starting with the importance of viewing downturns as buying opportunities—using cash to "buy the dip" can be rewarding when markets recover, especially in sectors hit hard by recent declines, including technology. It's also important to regularly rebalance your asset allocation to maintain your preferred stock-bond mix, which helps manage risk and ensures you're not overexposed or underinvested as markets shift.
The value of automated investment contributions takes advantage of dollar-cost averaging, so don't halt contributions during downturns, stay consistent for long-term growth. Periodically reviewing and potentially trimming persistently underperforming investments and considering tax-loss harvesting in taxable accounts are also key tactics—this can improve portfolio efficiency, allow for strategic tax deductions, and keep your investment plan on track without straying afoul of wash-sale rules.
Looking Forward and Recovery Potential
Market volatility is inevitable, especially in uncertain times, but history and sound investing principles remind us to avoid knee-jerk reactions. Take advantage of the situation by rebalancing, automating investments, evaluating underperformers, and using tax-loss harvesting to ensure your portfolio remains resilient. Downturns often lay the groundwork for future gains, and patient, disciplined investing pays off over time.
Resources Mentioned
Retirement Readiness Review
Subscribe to the Retire with Ryan YouTube Channel
Download my entire book for FREE
Connect With Morrissey Wealth Management
www.MorrisseyWealthManagement.com/contact
Subscribe to Retire With Ryan
Comments
Want to join the conversation?
Loading comments...