Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights 2nd-6th March 2026

Key Takeaways

• OPEC may lift 137k bpd cuts from April
• US manufacturing PMI fell to seven‑month low of 51.2
• UK Spring Statement expects unchanged fiscal headroom around £22bn
• Euro‑zone HICP inflation expected 1.8% Y/Y, keeping rates steady
• Australian Q4 GDP forecast 0.9% q/q, signalling growth rebound

Summary

The OPEC+ meeting on March 1 is expected to unwind 137,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts, signaling a tentative supply increase as Brent hovers near $71. US economic data show a slowdown in manufacturing, with the ISM PMI dropping to a seven‑month low of 51.2, while services remain in expansion. European inflation metrics hint at modest price pressures, with the euro‑zone HICP projected at 1.8% year‑over‑year, keeping the ECB on hold. Meanwhile, the UK Spring Statement foresees fiscal headroom around £22 billion and Australian Q4 GDP is forecast to rebound 0.9% quarter‑on‑quarter, underscoring divergent regional growth trajectories.

Pulse Analysis

The OPEC+ decision to potentially restart phased output increases marks a pivotal shift in the oil market. After months of voluntary cuts aimed at stabilising prices, the alliance is weighing a modest 137,000‑barrel‑per‑day unwind from April. This move reflects confidence in rising summer demand and a desire to protect market share against non‑OPEC producers, yet it remains contingent on geopolitical and demand data, meaning oil traders must monitor supply‑side signals closely.

Across the broader macro landscape, the United States is sending mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.2, its lowest in seven months, indicating waning factory demand, while the services PMI held above 52, suggesting resilience in consumer‑facing sectors. In Europe, the euro‑zone HICP is projected at 1.8% year‑over‑year, just below the ECB’s 1.9% target, reinforcing a data‑dependent stance that likely postpones rate cuts. Meanwhile, Australia’s Q4 GDP is forecast to rise 0.9% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven by stronger household spending and credit growth, highlighting a rebound that could attract commodity‑linked investors.

Policy implications are equally significant. The UK’s Spring Statement signals fiscal discipline with headroom steady around £22 billion, limiting immediate stimulus but maintaining market confidence. ECB minutes will be scrutinised for hints on wage dynamics and services inflation, while the Fed’s upcoming jobs report will test whether the recent payroll surge was a blip or a turning point. Together, these data points will guide central‑bank decisions, influencing bond yields, currency valuations, and risk sentiment heading into the second quarter of 2026.