Tom Hayes – Fox Business – Varney & Co – Appearance – 3/19/26

Key Takeaways

• 2‑yr Treasury yield rose to 3.816%, +4.6 bps
• Powell dismissed stagflation as outdated term
• Hayes expects tighter credit conditions ahead
• Great Hill sees opportunities in distressed debt
• Market volatility likely to rise amid policy uncertainty

Summary

Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital, appeared on Fox Business on March 19, 2026 to discuss the U.S. two‑year Treasury yield climbing to 3.816%, up 4.6 basis points, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark that stagflation is a “1970s term.” Hayes highlighted the tightening of credit conditions, the impact on risk assets, and Great Hill’s strategy to target distressed‑debt opportunities. He also warned that market volatility could increase as policy uncertainty persists.

Pulse Analysis

The U.S. two‑year Treasury yield climbed to 3.816% on March 19, marking a 4.6‑basis‑point rise in a single session. The move reflects the Federal Reserve’s continued effort to curb lingering inflation by keeping short‑term rates elevated. Higher short‑term yields compress the spread to longer‑term bonds, pressuring equity valuations and raising borrowing costs for corporations. Market participants are closely watching the yield curve for signs of a flattening or inversion, which historically precedes slower growth. In this environment, investors reassess risk premia across credit, real estate, and technology sectors.

During the same broadcast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell labeled stagflation a “1970s term,” suggesting he believes the economy can avoid the simultaneous high‑inflation, low‑growth scenario that plagued that decade. Powell’s comment aims to reassure markets but also signals that policy will remain aggressive until inflation is firmly anchored. Analysts caution that dismissing stagflation does not eliminate the risk; supply‑chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions could still generate price pressures while growth stalls. Consequently, forward‑looking investors must factor in both inflation persistence and growth deceleration when modeling portfolio performance.

Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital, used the platform to outline his firm’s strategic response. Hayes argued that tighter credit conditions will create pricing dislocations in high‑yield and distressed‑debt markets, presenting selective buying opportunities for well‑capitalized funds. He also emphasized the importance of diversifying into assets less sensitive to short‑term rate spikes, such as private equity and real‑asset platforms. Hayes’ outlook underscores a broader industry shift toward active management and opportunistic positioning as macro volatility intensifies. For investors, the key takeaway is to balance exposure to rate‑sensitive securities with assets that can thrive in a higher‑for‑longer rate environment.