Omdia: TV and Online Video Revenues to Top $1 Trillion by 2030

Why It Matters

The forecast signals a decisive shift toward ad‑driven online video, reshaping where brands allocate spend and forcing legacy broadcasters to reinvent revenue models.

Key Takeaways

• Global TV and online video revenues exceed $1 trillion by 2030
• Digital ad spend drives majority of industry growth
• Social video platforms to capture $400 billion advertising revenue
• Linear TV ad revenue projected to decline modestly
• Subscription video growth slows, indicating market maturation

Pulse Analysis

The media landscape is undergoing a structural transformation, with Omdia’s latest outlook confirming that the combined value of traditional television and online video will breach the $1 trillion threshold by the decade’s end. This milestone reflects a broader industry pivot away from linear broadcasting toward digital ecosystems, where advertisers are chasing the higher engagement rates and precise targeting that online video offers. The forecast underscores the accelerating pace at which consumer attention is migrating to internet‑based platforms, compelling media owners to rethink distribution strategies.

Digital advertising emerges as the primary engine of this growth, projected to climb from $309 billion in 2025 to $540 billion by 2030. Social‑video giants—Meta, TikTok, and YouTube—are slated to command roughly $400 billion of that spend, driven by mobile‑first consumption, short‑form formats, and algorithmic personalization. For brands, this translates into richer data signals and more efficient spend, while publishers must invest in programmatic capabilities and creative formats that resonate in a fragmented, attention‑scarce environment. The shift also intensifies competition among platforms vying for a larger slice of the ad pie.

Legacy television models face a steady erosion of revenue. Linear TV ad sales are expected to dip from $123 billion to $113 billion, and pay‑TV earnings will fall to $159 billion, highlighting the urgency for broadcasters to diversify. Meanwhile, subscription and transactional video services see modest growth, suggesting a maturing market where churn and price pressure are mounting. Executives should prioritize hybrid monetization—leveraging both ad‑supported and subscription tiers—and explore partnerships with dominant social‑video players to sustain relevance in a rapidly consolidating media ecosystem.