Live with The New World: Matt Kelly and David Aaronovitch

In this live conversation Matt Kelly and David Aaronovitch dissect the bewildering swirl of the Middle East crisis, highlighting how President Trump’s actions appear disconnected from any coherent strategy. They argue that the lack of a clear narrative fuels speculation about personal or political motives, while rising oil prices force the United States to reconsider sanctions on Russian energy exports. This dynamic underscores the unpredictable nature of current geopolitics, where policy decisions often react to market pressures rather than long‑term planning.

The hosts draw striking parallels to past interventions, noting that the Iraq regime‑change effort left a more hostile successor and that Venezuela’s leadership remains entrenched despite high‑profile attempts. They contend that without a full‑scale invasion, altering a regime’s structure is fraught with unintended consequences, and that Trump’s "America first" rhetoric masks a deeper reliance on base support from his Republican base. The discussion also revisits the erosion of international law’s authority after the Iraq war, questioning whether legal norms can still guide state behavior when leaders prioritize short‑term gains.

Turning to Europe, Kelly and Aaronovitch critique the United Kingdom’s strained naval readiness after the Cyprus base attack, exposing a broader NATO shortfall in rapid deployment capabilities. They examine Prime Minister Starmer’s cautious stance on granting US access to British bases, juxtaposing it with France’s more assertive maritime response. The episode concludes that escalating defense spending and a re‑evaluation of alliance commitments are inevitable as global powers grapple with the fallout of unpredictable US policy and the fading influence of traditional international legal frameworks.