How Many Times Will the Fed Hike Rates This Year?
Why It Matters
Because mortgage rates dictate housing affordability and borrowing costs, the Fed’s hike trajectory will directly affect real‑estate demand and financial‑market risk throughout 2024.
Key Takeaways
- •Fed likely holds rates now, but easing bias may disappear.
- •Analysts project up to four 0.25‑point hikes to reach neutral policy.
- •Mortgage rates expected to stay between 5.75% and 6.75% this year.
- •Oil price stability and wage growth will shape future Fed decisions.
- •New Fed chair Kevin Warsh may limit press Q&A, signaling regime shift.
Summary
The podcast focuses on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming June meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, and the question of how many rate hikes the Fed will deliver before year‑end.
Logan Mohtashami expects the Fed to hold rates at the meeting but to drop its long‑standing easing bias. He outlines scenarios ranging from two to four quarter‑point hikes, depending on whether inflation stays above 3.5% and wage growth accelerates. Oil at $84 a barrel and modest wage growth are cited as key variables.
Warsh’s potential move to end press Q&A sessions is highlighted as a signal of a more opaque policy regime. Mohtashami also references the 2022 rapid‑fire hikes, the current mortgage‑rate range of 5.75%‑6.75%, and the historical difficulty of pushing rates below 5% without a dovish Fed.
For borrowers and real‑estate investors, the outlook suggests mortgage rates will likely hover in the mid‑6% range, limiting affordability gains. Market participants should watch Fed communication, oil price trends, and wage data, as any shift could quickly alter the spread dynamics that drive mortgage pricing.
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