Shopee and TikTok Shop Are Reshaping Vietnam Logistics

Key Takeaways

• Shopee, TikTok Shop will command 97% market share
• Ninja Van and Flex Speed exited Vietnam last‑mile delivery
• Platform‑integrated logistics depend on parent e‑commerce growth
• Neutral couriers face pressure as market consolidates
• Diversification beyond platforms is essential for future growth

Summary

Vietnam's e‑commerce logistics is entering a consolidation phase as two major players, Ninja Van and Flex Speed, have withdrawn from B2C delivery. Shopee and TikTok Shop are projected to capture about 97% of the market, driving 429.7 trillion VND in platform revenue by 2025. This duopoly forces logistics firms into two models—platform‑integrated services tied to parent marketplaces and neutral multi‑platform couriers—while exposing platform‑dependent players to growth ceilings. Companies like SPX and Ninja Van are diversifying into non‑platform B2B and cross‑border services to sustain profitability.

Pulse Analysis

Vietnam’s e‑commerce boom has accelerated into a near‑duopoly, with Shopee and TikTok Shop projected to generate roughly VND 429.7 trillion in revenue by 2025. This concentration creates a massive, predictable parcel flow that reshapes the logistics landscape, prompting providers to align closely with the dominant platforms or risk losing volume. The surge in online shopping also fuels demand for faster, last‑mile solutions, making logistics a critical bottleneck for retailers seeking competitive advantage.

Two distinct logistics models have emerged. Platform‑integrated operators such as SPX (backed by Shopee) and LEX (formerly Lazada) enjoy stable order streams but remain vulnerable to their parent’s market share fluctuations; Lazada’s decline below 3% already threatens its delivery network. Neutral couriers like J&T and the former Ninja Van must serve multiple marketplaces, yet the tightening grip of Shopee and TikTok Shop makes true neutrality increasingly difficult. These dynamics pressure neutral players to either secure exclusive contracts or pivot toward niche services.

Looking ahead, diversification is the survival playbook. SPX’s expansion into non‑platform sellers and Ninja Van’s shift toward B2B and cross‑border logistics illustrate how higher‑margin, less platform‑dependent revenue streams can offset the volatility of e‑commerce demand. With the broader courier market expected to reach $2.53 billion by 2030, firms that broaden their service portfolio—leveraging density, cost optimization, and value‑added offerings—are poised to capture the next wave of growth while mitigating the risks of a consolidated platform ecosystem.