Is Cuba Next? | Mario Braga, RANE

Key Takeaways

• Cuba endures up to 20‑hour daily blackouts
• U.S. sanctions have halted most oil imports
• Food and medicine shortages spark rare protests
• Economy depends heavily on tourism and remittances
• U.S. may consider policy escalation against Cuba

Summary

The Trump administration has signaled it may target Cuba next, prompting a livestream analysis by RANE’s Latin America analyst Mario Braga. Cuba is grappling with a deepening crisis marked by chronic energy shortages, an economy on the brink of collapse, and U.S. sanctions that have choked most oil imports. Daily blackouts can last up to 20 hours, while food and medicine shortages have ignited rare public protests. The regime’s fragile reliance on tourism, remittances, and limited foreign aid underscores the urgency of the situation.

Pulse Analysis

The United States has long used sanctions as a lever to influence Cuban policy, but recent statements from the Trump administration suggest a possible shift from economic isolation to more direct action. After years of limited engagement, Washington’s rhetoric now hints at a "take Cuba next" approach, reflecting broader concerns about the island’s deteriorating energy infrastructure and the regime’s inability to meet basic needs. Analysts warn that any escalation—whether through tightened embargoes, secondary sanctions, or diplomatic isolation—could further cripple an economy already reeling from a 30‑year‑old embargo, a pandemic‑induced slump, and dwindling tourism revenues.

Cuba’s internal crisis deepens as power outages stretch to 20 hours a day, while shortages of food, medicine, and fuel fuel public discontent rarely seen since the 1959 revolution. The government’s dependence on tourism, remittances from the diaspora, and limited foreign credit leaves it vulnerable to any additional U.S. pressure. For investors and multinational firms, heightened sanctions risk disrupting supply chains, limiting access to Cuban markets, and increasing compliance costs. Moreover, a worsening humanitarian situation could trigger a wave of irregular migration toward the United States, adding a new dimension to the policy calculus.

Strategically, the Caribbean is a theater where U.S. influence competes with that of China and Russia, both of which have sought to expand economic ties with Havana. A tougher U.S. stance could push Cuba closer to alternative partners, reshaping regional alliances and affecting security cooperation. Business leaders should monitor policy developments, assess exposure to Cuban assets, and consider scenario planning for supply‑chain disruptions, while policymakers weigh the trade‑off between exerting pressure and avoiding a broader destabilization that could reverberate across the hemisphere.