Nina Schick: “This Is the First AI War”

Why It Matters

Energy availability now determines which nations can scale advanced AI, reshaping global power balances and supply‑chain resilience.

Key Takeaways

• Iran conflict highlights AI's dependence on energy supply
• US showcases AI strength against China through military actions
• UK's high electricity costs hinder large‑scale AI deployment
• China targets 90% AI adoption in key sectors by 2030
• Accelerating nuclear SMRs could give Britain an AI‑energy edge

Pulse Analysis

The notion of an "AI war" reflects a shift from abstract compute concerns to concrete geopolitical calculations. As nations scramble for the electricity and silicon required to train massive models, the Iran conflict illustrates how disruptions in fossil‑fuel supplies can reverberate through AI development pipelines. This intertwines traditional military strategy with data‑driven kill‑chains, where rapid AI‑enabled targeting can dictate battlefield outcomes and signal broader strategic intent.

In the US‑China contest, control over semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan and access to cheap, reliable power have become decisive factors. While the United States pushes on‑shoring of chip fabs, Britain faces a stark disadvantage: industrial electricity costs are five to six times higher than in the US or China, throttling the ability to run data‑center‑scale workloads. Schick argues that the UK’s moral‑driven decarbonisation policy overlooks the need for an industrial energy strategy, leaving the nation vulnerable to both fossil‑fuel shocks and a China‑dominated green‑tech supply chain.

Policy makers can mitigate these risks by revitalising domestic energy assets. Exploiting the North Sea’s remaining gas reserves and fast‑tracking small modular reactors (SMRs) – exemplified by Rolls‑Royce’s design – would provide low‑carbon, high‑density power essential for AI compute. Such an approach not only reduces reliance on volatile import markets but also creates an asymmetric advantage for British AI firms seeking to scale globally. Aligning industrial policy with energy security will be pivotal as AI becomes an integral component of national hard power.