Iran Isn't a Core Interest for the BRICS, China Is More Concerned with Trump-Xi Summit: Josh Lipsky

Why It Matters

The Iran conflict tests BRICS cohesion, sharpens U.S.–China rivalry, and could reshape global energy markets and trade negotiations, affecting investors worldwide.

Key Takeaways

• China sees Iran war as not core strategic interest
• Russia benefits from higher energy prices amid sanctions
• US-China Trump-Xi summit hinges on de‑escalating Iran conflict
• North Korea likely to re‑emerge in US‑China tensions later
• Iran crisis highlights global supply‑chain vulnerabilities and choke‑point risks

Summary

The interview with Josh Lipschitz focuses on why Iran, despite its recent accession to the BRICS, is not a priority for the bloc, especially China, and how the unfolding war in the Strait of Hormuz is shaping the agenda for the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit in May.

Lipschitz notes that China’s strategic calculus excludes Iran, preferring diplomatic signaling over military deployment, while Russia is quietly profiting from soaring oil and gas prices that offset sanctions pressure. He also flags a potential resurgence of North Korea in U.S. policy and stresses that the Iran conflict is a flashpoint in the broader U.S.–China rivalry over global choke points.

“China is telling the White House we should settle before May,” Lipschitz quotes, underscoring Beijing’s leverage on trade talks, rare‑earths and export controls. He likens market pricing to “a car speeding toward a brick wall,” warning that energy, fertilizer and Gulf exports are already undervalued relative to the risk.

The analysis suggests that unless the Iran war de‑escalates, the Trump‑Xi summit may stall, forcing both capitals to confront supply‑chain fragility and accelerate resilience measures. For investors and policymakers, the episode signals heightened geopolitical risk premiums and a possible shift in the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond.

Original Description

Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, also says the Iran conflict is different from other crises that President Trump has faced as he cannot resolve this on his own, and there will be a reconciliation between reality and the markets which are underpricing the risks in the coming days.