How Nigeria’s CDMA Operators Built a Market, Then Lost It

Why It Matters

The CDMA failure illustrates how licensing structures and capital discipline can determine market dominance, offering a cautionary tale for today’s telecom investors and regulators.

Key Takeaways

• CDMA operators held 0% market share by 2019.
• Regional licences limited CDMA growth versus national GSM licences.
• Mismanagement and under‑capitalisation accelerated CDMA collapse.
• MTN’s 2024 write‑off equals roughly $66 million.
• Former CDMA spectrum now fuels 4G LTE expansion.

Pulse Analysis

The CDMA era in Nigeria laid the groundwork for a modern telecom landscape, introducing private mobile services when the state monopoly of NITEL left millions disconnected. Early entrants such as Multilinks and Visafone leveraged spectrum‑efficient technology to deliver clearer calls and faster data, quickly amassing millions of users. Their success demonstrated the market’s appetite for competition and highlighted the strategic value of spectrum assets, a lesson that still resonates as operators chase 5G allocations today.

Regulatory decisions proved decisive. While GSM operators received nationwide licences and a five‑year exclusivity window, CDMA firms were confined to regional permits, capping their subscriber ceiling and revenue potential. Even after the 2006 upgrade to Unified Access Service Licences, GSM players like MTN and Globacom had already entrenched themselves with tens of millions of users. Coupled with under‑capitalisation and governance lapses—evident in Telkom’s $410 million purchase of Multilinks followed by a $10 million resale—the CDMA sector could not recover, culminating in a 0% market share by 2019.

The legacy of CDMA’s rise and fall informs current industry challenges. Today’s operators face pressure to upgrade infrastructure, meet quality‑of‑service mandates, and justify tariff hikes after a decade of price stability. The repurposing of former CDMA spectrum for 4G LTE, as seen in MTN’s acquisition of Visafone’s assets, underscores the enduring value of spectrum regardless of technology. Policymakers must balance licensing frameworks with capital requirements to avoid repeating history, ensuring that future innovations—whether 5G or satellite broadband—receive the regulatory support needed to thrive in Nigeria’s dynamic market.