Mobile Network Spending to Fall 29% in 2026-31, Says ABI Research

Why It Matters

The shrinking capex signals a tightening market for RAN equipment, pressuring vendors to diversify and innovate as traditional revenue streams wane.

Key Takeaways

• Global outdoor mobile infrastructure spend peaks at $92B in 2026.
• Forecast drops to $65B by 2031, a 29% decline.
• Open RAN CAGR 26.5% through 2031, but short‑lived.
• Ericsson, Nokia report flat/declining RAN revenues in Q4.
• 6G may be software‑centric, challenging vendors further.

Pulse Analysis

The near‑term plateau and subsequent contraction in mobile network spending reflect the natural lifecycle of large‑scale technology rollouts. Operators have largely completed the heavy lifting of 5G deployment, with coverage expected to hit 60% globally by the end of 2025. As a result, the capital‑intensive phase that drove multi‑year growth is ending, leaving a modest $92 billion peak this year before a steep slide to $65 billion by 2031. This trajectory forces operators to prioritize efficiency, network optimization, and incremental upgrades over wholesale infrastructure expansion.

Within this backdrop, Open RAN emerges as a brief bright spot, boasting a projected 26.5% compound annual growth rate through 2031. The technology promises cost savings and vendor diversification, attracting investment in markets such as Argentina, India, and Vietnam. Yet analysts caution that the momentum may be fleeting, as the bulk of new spend shifts toward software‑defined solutions and edge computing rather than new radio hardware. Consequently, incumbents like Nokia and Ericsson are recalibrating: Nokia leans into data‑center networking, while Ericsson expands its mission‑critical and defense portfolios, seeking revenue streams less vulnerable to capex cycles.

Looking ahead, the prospect of a software‑centric 6G rollout adds another layer of uncertainty. If early 6G deployments rely more on virtualized, cloud‑native architectures than on fresh radio equipment, traditional RAN vendors could face a decade of muted demand similar to the LTE decline. This scenario underscores the importance of agility—vendors must invest in software platforms, open standards, and services that complement hardware offerings. For investors and operators alike, the evolving spend landscape signals a shift from pure infrastructure procurement to a broader ecosystem of digital services, edge intelligence, and integrated solutions.