Investor Jitters over Starmer Uncertainty Drive UK Borrowing Costs to 28-Year High
Long-term borrowing costs in the United Kingdom spiked to a 28‑year peak on Tuesday as investors reacted to uncertainty surrounding Labour leader Keir Starmer’s potential departure. The yield on 30‑year gilts rose 14 basis points to 5.81%, the highest level since 1998. The move pushed the pound lower against the U.S. dollar, reflecting broader market anxiety about possible changes to the party’s fiscal agenda. Analysts warn the volatility could spill over into wider European bond markets.
UK Government Borrowing Costs Rise as Starmer ‘Fails to Reassure Bond Markets’ – Business Live
UK gilt yields rose sharply on Monday as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s speech failed to calm bond markets, pushing the 30‑year yield to 5.67% and the 10‑year to just above 5%. The uptick follows internal Labour pressure for a leadership timetable...
UK Households Bracing for New Cost of Living Crisis, Report Finds
A PwC survey released in April shows UK consumer confidence plunging to –13, the steepest decline since mid‑2022, as inflation ticked up to 3.3% and the Iran‑Israel conflict fuels cost pressures. Almost nine‑in‑ten households say they are worried about the...
‘It’s Like We Went Bankrupt Overnight’: Poorest Somalis Suffer as Piles of Worthless Shillings Mount Up
Somali traders in Mogadishu have begun refusing the country’s deteriorating shilling notes, prompting businesses and transport operators to follow suit. The move has instantly driven up prices for essentials such as milk and vegetables, as consumers are forced to pay...
Four in Five Britons Worried Iran War Will Make Food More Expensive, Poll Finds
A poll by Opinium shows 80% of Britons fear the Iran‑Israel conflict will raise grocery prices. The war’s impact on oil, gas and fertiliser markets has already pushed energy costs higher, prompting retailers to urge the UK government to cut...
Reform UK’s Immigration Policies Are a Significant Risk to the UK Economy | Sushil Wadhwani
Reform UK’s anti‑immigration platform could trigger a forced departure of up to two million residents, far exceeding prior deportation targets. The resulting loss of foreign‑born NHS staff and other skilled workers would strain health services, raise waiting lists, and ripple through...
NatWest Faces £140m Hit From Iran War as UK Growth Slows and Inflation Rises
NatWest posted a 12% rise in operating profit to $2.54 billion in Q1, beating consensus, but warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict will cost the bank about $178 million and trigger a $360 million impairment. The lender cut its base‑case UK GDP growth forecast...
Why Bank Kept Interest Rates on Hold Despite Message for UK to Brace Itself for Trumpflation
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged despite inflation now expected to peak above 3.5% by year‑end, a level a full percentage point higher than pre‑war forecasts. A worst‑case oil‑price scenario of $130 a barrel could drive inflation...
Reliance on Chinese Green Tech Poses ‘Serious’ Risk for Europe, Experts Say
A new report warns that Europe’s heavy reliance on Chinese green technology poses serious economic and national‑security risks. China provides 98% of the continent’s solar panels, 88% of lithium‑ion batteries and 61% of inverters, creating a vulnerable supply chain. The...
Rachel Reeves’s Fiscal Rules Buffer Should Be ‘Significantly Larger’, Say Peers
The House of Lords economic affairs committee says Chancellor Rachel Reeves should expand the fiscal‑rules buffer well beyond the £22 bn ($28 bn) she created after last year’s tax hike. The peers note the current buffer is still below the £30 bn ($38 bn)...
Britain Is Undermining the Care Workers It Depends on | Heather Stewart
Labour’s new immigration reforms would extend the waiting period for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) to up to 15 years for migrant social‑care workers, affecting more than 300,000 staff currently on low‑paid visas. The government claims the changes will save...
Oil Hits Highest Level Since US-Iran Ceasefire Began, as Conflict Hurts Gulf Crude Production – as It Happened
Brent crude rose to $105 a barrel, the highest level since the US‑Iran ceasefire was announced in early April, as fighting in the Middle East curtails Gulf crude output. The price surge follows a jump from sub‑$70 earlier in 2026...
UK Braces for Price Rises Driven by Iran War as Economic Confidence Plummets
UK consumer confidence slipped to its lowest level since October 2023 as the Iran war fuels inflation expectations. Business surveys reveal rising cost pressures, with more than a quarter of firms planning price hikes, driven largely by higher energy costs....
UK Jobs Market Was in a Fragile State – Even Before Iran War Threatened Recovery
The UK unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% in the three months to February, but the labour market remains fragile as economic inactivity rose and pay‑rolled jobs fell by 65,000 year‑on‑year in March. Wage growth slowed to 3.8% annually, the weakest...
Quarter of a Million People Could Lose Job by Middle of 2027 as UK ‘Flirts with Recession’, Analysis Says
A joint analysis by EY’s Item Club and Deloitte warns that the UK could lose up to 250,000 jobs by mid‑2027 as the country “flirts with recession” after the US‑Israel war on Iran disrupted oil supplies and spiked energy costs....
Reeves Rightly Fears the Bond Market, but She Can Afford to Ditch One Unhelpful Rule | Phillip Inman
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is confronting rising bond‑vigilante pressure as UK borrowing costs jump to 4.9% on 10‑year gilts. She has pledged to cut the annual deficit below 2% by 2031, a target praised by IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. Reeves’ fiscal plan...
Cuts to Overseas Aid Will Worsen Shocks to Global Economy, David Miliband Says
Former British foreign secretary David Miliband warned that recent cuts to overseas aid by the United States, United Kingdom and other wealthy nations risk amplifying economic shocks stemming from the Iran war. He cited OECD data showing a $174.3 bn reduction...
Ukraine War Briefing: €90bn EU Loan for Ukraine to Be Released in Second Quarter
The European Union will begin disbursing a €90 billion (≈ $98 billion) loan to Ukraine in the second quarter, announced by EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis at the IMF‑World Bank spring meetings. The funding comes as Russia escalates drone and missile attacks, killing...
UK Economy on ‘Stronger Footing’ than Expected Before Energy Shock After February Growth Surge – Business Live
UK February GDP surged 0.5% month‑on‑month, far outpacing the 0.1% consensus, driven by a broad‑based services rebound and a 1.0% jump in construction output. Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says the economy entered the Iran‑related energy shock on a stronger footing,...
UK Could Face Gaps on Supermarket Shelves by Summer if Iran War Continues
UK ministers are preparing for a ‘reasonable worst‑case scenario’ as the Iran‑Israel conflict threatens to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, potentially disrupting carbon‑dioxide supplies essential for food processing. The government’s Exercise Turnstone, run by the Cobra emergency committee, includes...
IMF Calls for Countries to Economise on Energy Supplies, and Hails UK’s Budget Deficit Improvement – as It Happened
The International Monetary Fund praised the United Kingdom for cutting its budget deficit from 6.1% of GDP in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025, and projects it will fall to 3.9% in 2026 and 1.6% by 2031, the lowest among G7...
How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Affecting African Economies
The US‑Israel blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked a key oil and fertilizer corridor, driving fuel prices up 30‑70% across Africa and as high as 150% in Somalia. East African and some North African nations that depend on...
IMF Says Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Prospect of ‘Major Energy Crisis’ – Video
The IMF warned that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would spark a major energy crisis, pushing oil prices sharply higher. Chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas outlined an adverse scenario with rising inflation and tighter financial conditions, and a severe...
IMF Warns ‘Unprecedented’ Energy Crisis Could Trigger Global Recession as Australia Prepares for G20 Fuel Talks
The International Monetary Fund warned that the US‑Israel war on Iran and the ensuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could spark an unprecedented energy crisis, threatening to push global growth below 2% in 2026. Its World Economic Outlook outlines...
HSBC Says Iran War Is Hitting Confidence as Businesses Warn over Economic Risks
HSBC executives warned that the Iran war is already dampening global business confidence, citing rising oil, fertilizer and metal prices. The conflict has pushed Brent crude just below $100 a barrel despite a new U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. HSBC’s...
Holidays Take a Hit as UK Cost of Living Fears and Iran War Bite
UK consumers reduced travel spending by 3.3% in March, marking the first decline since 2021, as cost‑of‑living worries and the Iran‑related Middle East conflict weigh on confidence. Overall card spending rose modestly 0.9% year‑on‑year, while domestic hotel bookings increased 1.2%...
Oil Price Tops $100 a Barrel as US Prepares Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Goldman Sachs Posts Rise in Profits –...
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, with Brent trading at $102.31 as the United States prepared a naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. Goldman Sachs reported a 48% jump in investment‑banking fees, posting Q1...
Iran War Could Plunge 32 Million Into Poverty, Says United Nations
The UN Development Programme warns that the Iran‑Israel war could push more than 32 million people into poverty, primarily in developing nations. The conflict has triggered a "triple shock" of soaring energy prices, strained food supplies, and weaker global growth. UNDP...
Trump’s New Budget Ignores Dying Americans and Gives Away Record Sums to the US Military
The White House unveiled a 2027 budget that trims the Department of Health and Human Services by $15 bn (12%) and cuts overall non‑defense spending by 10%, while inflating the Pentagon’s allocation to a record $1.5 tn—about 42% more than the 2026...
Task for the Week: Limit the Fallout From Biggest Oil Shock in Decades | Richard Partington
The IMF and World Bank convene in Washington as the US‑Israeli war on Iran triggers the biggest oil shock of the modern era. Brent crude, after peaking near $120 a barrel, remains well above the pre‑conflict $72 level, driving inflation...
Average UK Petrol Price Hits 150p for First Time Since 2024; Trump’s Latest Iran Extension Fails to Calm Oil Market...
UK average petrol price reached 150.11 pence per litre (≈£1.50/$1.88), with diesel at 177.68 pence (≈£1.78/$2.22), the highest levels since May 2024. The surge, tied to the Iran‑Israel conflict and rising crude, is inflating motorists’ travel costs and feeding broader inflation worries. At...
FCA Deal Gives Palantir yet More Access to Inner Workings of Power in Britain
Palantir has landed a high‑profile contract with the UK Financial Conduct Authority, extending its AI‑driven data analytics into the heart of Britain’s financial services sector. The deal gives the Miami‑based firm access to terabytes of FCA data to enhance detection...
‘The New Ketchup’? How Hummus Spread Beyond a Niche Into a British Staple
Hummus has been added to the UK’s official inflation basket, signalling its transition from niche dip to a staple comparable to ketchup. British consumers now spend roughly £170 million a year on the chickpea spread, with brands like Ramona Hazan’s valued...
Lowering Speed Limits Among Contingency Plans to Curb UK Oil Demand
The UK government is drafting contingency measures, including a 10 mph reduction on motorways, to curb oil demand as the Middle‑East conflict threatens global fuel supplies. The International Energy Agency has urged member states to adopt Covid‑style emergency actions such as...
FTSE 100 Loses All Its 2026 Gains as Middle East Conflict Hits Shares, and UK Borrowing Costs Reach Highest Since...
The FTSE 100 wiped out its 2026 gains as the Iran‑Israel conflict rattled markets and UK borrowing surged to over £14 billion in February. Money markets now price three quarter‑point rate hikes this year, driven by inflation spikes from higher oil...
Reeves Plans to Give England’s Regional Leaders a Share of National Tax Revenues
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced plans to devolve a share of national tax revenues, starting with income tax, to England’s regional mayors. The Treasury will also allocate £2.3 bn in city investment funds and allow future business‑rates revenue to stay with metro...
UK Housing Costs Rise 41% over Five Years for Renters and Owners, Study Shows
UK households spent a record £226 bn on housing in 2025, a 41% increase over the past five years. Mortgage interest payments surged 9% to £53.6 bn, pushing average borrower costs to £13,000 annually. Rental expenses grew more modestly, rising 2.75% to...
Gas Prices Are Soaring – but One Los Angeles Gas Station Is Taking It to the Extreme
A Chevron station on Alameda Street in downtown Los Angeles is charging $8.31 per gallon, far above the city’s $5.37 average. The outlet, owned by Joe Bezerra Jr.’s Hawk II Environmental Group, sees minimal traffic despite the high price. Officials say the markup...
Can the IEA Put a Lid on the Price per Barrel by Releasing Oil Stockpiles?
The International Energy Agency announced a historic release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude, the largest drawdown in its history and about one‑third of members’ total reserves. The move aims to temper soaring oil prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel conflict...
Iran War Could Knock UK Homebuyer Confidence, Says Builder Persimmon
Persimmon warned that the escalating conflict with Iran could erode UK home‑buyer confidence, adding pressure to an already fragile mortgage market. The builder still expects to complete 12,000‑12,500 homes in 2026, a modest rise on 2025, and reported a 9%...
Young Bearing the Brunt of UK Tax and Wage Changes, Says BoE Economist
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that recent hikes in National Insurance contributions and the accelerated rise in the national living wage have hit young workers hardest. Youth unemployment rose to 16.1% in Q4 2025, the highest level...
UK Manufacturing Still Beset by Low Orders and Price Pressure, Says CBI
The CBI’s industrial trends survey shows British manufacturers recorded order books well below their long‑term average in February. Despite the weak order flow, most firms plan to raise prices over the next three months. The survey also indicates that output...
Death Tax? Property Tax? Four Ideas that Could Offset Inheritance Inequality in Australia
Australia faces a projected $5.4 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer over the next two decades, prompting concerns about entrenched inequality and reduced productivity. Economists argue that the current progressive income‑tax system is ill‑suited to address wealth that accumulates outside labour markets. Four...
Britons Feeling ‘Dismal’ About Finances Amid Mounting Debts, Survey Finds
A new S&P Global survey shows UK consumer confidence slipping to a 44.8 reading in February, the lowest level in two years. Households are adding debt at the fastest pace since July, with the sharpest increase among 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds,...
US Fixation on the Hard-Hat Economy and Making Manufacturing Great Again Makes Little Sense
The article argues that U.S. political focus on reviving the “hard‑hat” economy is misplaced. Manufacturing now comprises under 8% of employment, and recent tariff and subsidy policies have raised input costs without restoring jobs. Federal initiatives like the Inflation Reduction...
Reeves Urged to Reassure MPs over Public Finances Amid £6bn-a-Year Send Costs
Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to reassure MPs as the UK’s special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) programme costs rise to about £6 billion a year. The Office for Budget Responsibility warns that an £18 billion backlog could erode the fiscal surplus...
Declines in Health and Education in Poor Countries ‘Harming Earning Potential’
The World Bank reports that human capital—health, education and workplace learning—has declined in 86 of 129 low‑ and middle‑income countries between 2010 and 2025, threatening future earnings. Children born today could earn about 51 percent more over their lifetimes if their...
Economics Has Failed on the Climate Crisis. This Complexity Scientist Has a Mind-Blowing Plan to Fix That
Complexity scientist Doyne Farmer proposes a $100 million global economic simulator that models every firm individually, starting with the energy sector’s 30,000 companies and 160,000 assets. By replacing perfect‑rationality and equilibrium assumptions with simple, adaptive agents, the model promises forecasts that...