INVOLUNTARY exits for the small VCs (50%+) VOLUNTARY exits for the large VCs (~5 will IPO)
The amount of venture firms in the valley that have a win rate sub 50% right now is insane. Early stage valley is more competitive, frothy and crowded than ever.

I saw this graph by @IlyaStrebulaev on the number of rounds entrepreneurs raise to become a unicorn. I was surprised that the plurality is only 3 rounds. https://t.co/9mxwrrzBdX
Founders say they want feedback early. They talk to customers. They debate ideas. They refine plans. They align teams. None of that creates information. Reality only enters when something external can contradict you. A user ignores the product. Behavior stays flat. A test fails. Money doesn’t...
After I became a VC, I understood much more clearly that there are all kinds of investors with varying incentives and interests. Angels, Family offices, Corporates, Fund of funds, Endowments, Gov, etc The same is true for startups. You have...
I think David George is one of the great growth investors today. But I also think some of the hardest and most pressing questions have not been asked. - How does a $5BN fund do a 5x? - Why invest $300M into Adam...
What is the biggest advantage for companies to stay private today? @DavidGeorge83 " The biggest advantage is the avoidance of volatility in your stock price and employee management. If you can steadily grow or control your stock price in the private...

More good news from the "Incentivizing New Ventures and Economic Strength Through Capital Formation (INVEST) Act" Seems like startups presenting at demo days will not trigger "general solicitation" violations: "The INVEST Act also clarifies that company presentations at sponsored events do not...
Fuse Energy is the most under the radar company in Europe. Every year, the company has 10x revenue. First Year: £2M Second Year: £20M Third Year: £200M @alanchanguk is one of the great founders of our time. 🔥 20VC to come...
Only 4% of SaaS startups ever reach $1M in ARR. This game is hard but it’s not impossible. Please keep going.
📰 Top AI+B2B News - Sun, Dec 14 https://t.co/MWFHfEuzpm Top Stories: 1. Alphabet poised for another paper gain on SpaceX valuation 2. ServiceNow in advanced talks to acquire Armis at around $7 Billion 3. Thoma Bravo Completes Acquisition of PROS Holdings, Inc. for $1.5...
A big generational change: When I raised venture capital, I viewed it as a do-or-die commitment to making them money, building something great or going down trying. Fast forward to today, founders are happy to just quit having raised $2m,...
AI is completely changing the restaurant industry, at a pace and scale many may not realize. It's a $1T+industry that desperately needs AI to deal with a lack of humans and automation. And @owner is the break-out leader of the...
Run rate dilution by company size As you get bigger, the benchmark for appropriate dilution each year, after contemplating SBC, M&A, buybacks, and everything else, should grind downward. https://t.co/Dmjoe6M5qo
It used to be people laughed at streaming. First it was only low quality audio. The. When video came along it was the size of a postage stamp. Then there wasn’t enough bandwidth to scale. To everyone...
Three years ago I made one of the biggest investing mistakes of my life. We turned down the chance to invest in ElevenLabs. It was a $250K check at a $100M post. Today that would be 100x and would have...
I think we're at the point in the year where it is probably better for most founders to push their VC meetings to January than it is to try to take them now. (of course, if you've already been running...
Stuart Faught turned small focused SaaS ideas into 18 acquisitions by sticking to a simple repeatable approach on @acquiredotcom. The playbook: > Build for one clear niche > Validate traction early > Use partners instead of ads > Document everything upfront > Sell when the business...
"You can leave Salesforce, but you can't leave your mortgage." What can the home buying experience teach us about B2B tech? Turns out, a ton. My interview with Brian Brown CFO at Rocket drops tomorrow morning. It's a look into...
Per @WSJ, OpenAI has gone from just a 6 month cliff for equity vesting now to … no cliff at all And will “spend” $6 Billion this year on employee equity Even at OpenAI, the war for talent never ends https://t.co/uOw6ReBXCF
1/ One of the coolest papers i read this week implications for -information cascades based on lies/misinformation (or accidental misinterpretations) -markets and investor reactors -understanding memory/prediction framework of our consciousness https://t.co/GOyDAbuwlA
The best question to ask: What drives you more, the thrill of winning or the fear of losing? I have asked 100 of the best founders in the world this. 82 said the same thing.
Good question... The gasoline-powered tractor debuted in the 1890s, and by 1930, about 15% of farmers used one. It wasn't until the labor shortages of the 1940s (due to the war) that it surged. It took 50 years. PCs debuted in the early...
I love B2B SaaS startups like these. Hyperniche. Hyperfocussed. A HR/talent contact data platform on @acquiredotcom. > $158K TTM revenue > $72K TTM profit > 700K+ HR leader database Listing here: https://t.co/Gw1nCjb4CK https://t.co/HsiMTD2o8o
What I read this week... 1) On 12/11, The White House issued a new Executive Order declaring that the United States must adopt a single national AI regulatory standard rather than a mosaic of state-level rules. The EO does not define...
2025 in the end was better for IPOs than 2022-2024, but still pretty Meh per @WSJ But 2027 (plus or minus)? Databricks, Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Canva, Stripe, etc? Probably will be the great stretch for IPOs of all time. ...
Liquidity is thin in startups It's entirely possible for you to have had a $100m acquisition offer last year and 0 offers today Or to close an oversubscribed rounds just a few months ago and have 0 VC interest today
Founders in trouble are often dismayed by how fast corp dev people can sense their desperation. You'll be less surprised if you remember this is all they *can* sense. They can't judge technology or talent. All they can judge is...
I'm not a great judge of character, but fortunately my mistakes are nearly all in the same direction (accepting the bad rather than rejecting the good). So all I need is a second pass by someone with a tighter filter,...
This aspect a big deal: 1Allowing individuals to take a test to verify accredited investor status, rather than relying solely on wealth.
What's the value an investment bank can provide? As an example, we had one founder who was on the verge of signing an LOI with a buyer, but then decided to engage us first. In a 3-week turnaround, we marketed...
Super fun from Elizabeth Yin and Hustle Fund
"Unclear" product market fit is when you do customer acquisition, and your unit economics work such that you can repeatedly get more customers. But you don't have a line at your door without manufacturing that.
So ARE we in an AI bubble?! Here’s why David Clark says… NO. David Clark of Ven Cap has looked at the actual metrics and came up with a hot take on this week’s TWiST VC Roundtable. When you actually...
We’ll cap the community at 50 people who are “immediately backable”, i.e. repeat founders and early employees & execs at top companies.
Extreme market pull is when you really don't have to do much to get customers. You just need to fulfill their demand. You are so overwhelmed with customers that you can't even fulfill everyone's demand.
Yes we are - and you can hear some of his amazing stories and insights including some from an early investor (me) who gets some coverage in his book about that time Jamie said he had other investors coming in...
🚀 Proud moment spotlighting two of our incredible students, Henry Fox and Henry Warren , and their USC Jimmy Iovine and Andre Young Academy born startup Seeing Is Everyone’s Right (S‑I‑E‑R), the creators of Sidekick, a clip‑on AI smart glasses...
Wealthfront IPO'd today at $2.6B 🎉 The 17-year journey: 2008: Founded as "kaChing" 2014: Peak at $700M valuation 2018: Down round to $500M 😬 2022: $1.4B UBS deal collapses 2025: IPO @ $14/share, $485M raised The pivot that saved them? Cash accounts now drive 75% of...
I think the problem with product market fit is that it's actually a spectrum. When people say that you know if you have it, that's only when you have extreme market pull. But there are plenty of products that can...
Founders realizing they need to work on distribution from day 1: https://t.co/ADYBNNLJja

My face when @matiii reminds me @Kieranleehill turned down the seed for ElevenLabs…. 🤣 https://t.co/R0b3biSsor
Friendly reminder that the “get shit done” founder beats the “perfect plan” founder 100% of the time in startups because speed of execution wins.
Silicon Valley is repeatedly generating individual companies that are worth more than entire developed world national economies
So many founders would be happier if they just slowed down fundraising toward the end ... a little
You can argue timelines, risks, or regulation. Existing AI capabilities are already sufficient to drive long-term change. What people miss is how disruption actually unfolds. It takes time for systems, incentives, and habits to reorganize around what already exists.
If you're a founder trying to make a term sheet decision before year's end, give Boardy a call to check in!
We frequently get asked how a founder can tell when it's the best time to think about raising capital or making an exit. The truth is, it depends on a handful of factors. In this video, I walk through some...
Great profile of great investor Bruce Booth @LifeSciVC https://t.co/VCOHBQIriN
The best risk takers I know took lots of small, calculated risks when they were younger before concentrating. It’s a skill that requires repetition for the patterns to emerge.