IBKR's Peterffy Pushes Institutional Prediction Markets Despite Regulation
NEW ODD LOTS It's Interactive Brokers founder and chairman Thomas Peterffy on building a prediction market for professional (institutional) investors. Lots to dig into here. Peterffy is incredibly influential in markets, basically pioneering automated trading. He's very much worth listening to when it comes to future market structure developments. Some things @TheStalwart and I talk to him about: - Why prediction markets now? Peterffy says IBKR tried to set one up 10 years ago but got rebuffed by regulators. Then he tried to buy Kalshi instead and also got rejected. - IBKR is working on a consolidated feed of bets from across prediction platforms, and also trying to standardize prediction contracts to make them more fungible. - He doesn't think 'insider trading' is an issue in prediction markets, or for that matter, in the stock market either (despite saying he lost a lot of money to an insider trader in the past) Listen to the full thing below: https://t.co/RBUmKWhSvE
Ford Admits $4.8B EV Loss, Refuses Unprofitable Spending
"Ford CEO Knew the EV Transition Would Hurt, But the Reality Is a $4.8B Loss — 'We Can't Allocate Money For Things That Will Not Make Money'" https://t.co/1UM2eCDJsV https://t.co/0UFTk3eamf
Next‑Gen Family Office Members Join Elite VC Co‑Investment Club
Do you know a next-gen member of a family office that's curious about VC and wants to learn by doing, not just reading? @AlumniVentures is forming a new class of NextGen VC Club members This is a chance for...
Swap Market Predicts Brief 4% Inflation Spike, Then 3%
Inflation may reach 4% for a fleeting moment this year.. but then back near 3% in rather short order, according to the swap market. If you disagree, go out and trade it. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/mN7udXNlCV
Oil Soars 42% While US Stocks Slip 1%
This is nuts... oil +42% since the war began, and US stocks have plunged all of 1% @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x Nasdaq, small caps UNCH https://t.co/8xxFActnDf
Senior UX Roles Demand Leadership, Strategy, and Advocacy
I was facilitating a leadership session recently when someone asked a question I didn't have a clean answer for. "What's the actual job? Because nobody seems to agree." They weren't wrong. Senior UX roles are often titled 'lead' or 'head of' but...
OpenAI, Anthropic Face Massive Cash Burn, Depend on IPO Funding
"Both OpenAI and Anthropic will burn through a giant amount of cash in the coming years, and are counting on their IPO investors to help buoy their businesses." -WSJ
Calculate NIL Benefits Cap Using Each Sport’s Revenue
Schools generate revenue very differently across sports, but operate under shared rules. Can schools calculate their benefits cap based on the revenue of individual sports? I walk through this in my book NIL 101: The House Settlement Currently 40% off https://t.co/yBVisUkFCL https://t.co/THFVHY32VC
AI Finds Winning Products in Minutes, Skipping Manual Research
🤯 I found 5 winning products in 10 minutes. 🔥 AI scanned for high demand, low competition. 🛠️ AI wrote ad angles for each one. 🤵 AI sourced suppliers instantly. 📦 Ready to build stores. This is crushing hours of manual research. Want the method? RT...
Buffett's Buyback Test: Cash Surplus, Undervalued Stock
Buffett's two conditions for buybacks: 1) The company has more cash than it needs for the business. 2) The stock is trading below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated. Simple test. Most companies fail the second one because management is almost always...
Reopening Hormuz Likely Messy, Iran Controls Every Barrel
RBC Capital Markets' @CroftHelima and co: "[W]e think the mechanics of reopening the Strait will be exceedingly messy, with Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access...
Ceasefire Optimism Fades; Markets Wobble Amid Israel
Ceasefires often have a troubled start and this one is no different. It is complicated by Israel's action in Lebanon. Yesterday's exuberance was exaggerated and has been pared a little. Oil firmer, equities lower, yields higher. $USD in narrow...
X Introduces AI-Driven Translation and Photo Editing
X rolled out automatic post translation and AI photo editing powered by Grok https://t.co/e942XQ7TIA #ArtificialIntelligence #Innovation #Technology #Tech #TechNews https://t.co/Y6qrxEiI7j
Tariff Rollbacks and $120bn Refunds Ease Fuel Pain
BofA: Pain at the pump but relief at the ports Tariff rollbacks and a potential $120bn in refunds could cushion pain at the pump and provide meaningful economic stimulus. https://t.co/spAE1VFK5N
Hedging Reveals Balance of Confidence, Narrative, and Action
The equilibrium between confidence, stories, and actions is never clearer than when we turn to hedging...
Private Markets Face $330B Debt Maturity Crunch by 2028
"A wall of debt maturities is looming for the private markets industry, with more than $330 billion of high yield, leveraged loan and business development company-linked software and technology debt coming due for repayment through 2028." https://t.co/tbaFKL3oym
Speak Up Safely: Observe, Report, Protect Clinical Culture
No surgeon. No anesthesiologist. One physician. Packed ED. @jessicasinghmd stabilized a critically ill patient with blood in their airway. Shift ends. The incoming physician, also an administrator, says in front of staff: "I need you to function." She reported it....
Energy Security Demands Clean Energy, Not Temporary Relief
Spoke to @trtworld last night on the Hormuz crisis. Relief ≠ resolution. Oil and gas still much above pre-war levels, 172M barrels stranded, and Iran cementing control of the Strait. The clearest lesson: energy security = clean energy. https://t.co/rbUxk8iIdl
Taleb's Smart Risk‑Taking: Barbell, No Ruin, Convex Bets
🧠 Smart Risk-Taking Principles for Traders according to N. N. Taleb: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (former options trader & author of Antifragile, Skin in the Game, The Black Swan) doesn’t preach “risk management.” He teaches smart risk-taking: survive at all costs, love...
Let Your Top 10% Shape Your Growth Strategy
Stop studying your average customers. Obsess over your best ones. Your top 10% tell you what you're doing exceptionally — not just adequately. Where did they come from? What language do they use? Why did they choose you? That's your growth blueprint. Your...
Buffett & I Reject Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal
Warren Buffett doesn't believe in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Neither do I. If the goal is "price stability," - why ANY inflation? That 2% compounded is robbing your purchasing power. Here's a thought: What if prices should actually go DOWN? Everyone...
Eight Products, Four Years: My Most Painful Lessons
I built 8 products in 4 years. Here's what each one taught me, ranked by how painful the lesson was.
France Maintains 5% Deficit Target for 2026
France to keep 5% 2026 deficit goal for now, budget chief says https://t.co/x2JgmrJesT via @WHorobin https://t.co/oEinKGqCzm
France's Lescure: Iran War's Economic Impact Remains Moderate
France’s Lescure says the economic impact from the Iran war is moderate for now https://t.co/hUDRHnjPtG via @WHorobin https://t.co/fRjzKgdDjb
UAE Oil Chief Calls Hormuz Closure “Control, Not Passage”
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
India Seeks Faster Qatar LNG Restart Amid Supply Halt
India's oil minister is heading to Qatar to ask the nation to accelerate the restart of LNG exports and for priority delivery 🇮🇳🤝🇶🇦 Qatar is India’s top LNG supplier (providing 45%). But those deliveries have halted since the Iran war started https://t.co/B7JwVxFnF3
Bond Markets Fade as Stagflation Looms with Oil Surge
Global Bond Markets were fading stock markets yesterday They "see" #Quad3 Stagflation at Oil > $75 never mind > $95 https://t.co/LTC41IObnK
Turn $50K Into 7‑Figure SaaS Exit in 6 Months
Want to grow your SaaS real fast? We took a SaaS from 120 visits/day to 120K/month in 6 months. This client invested $50K total and ended up exiting at 7-figures. Here's the exact playbook we used (no BS, just what actually worked): 🧵...
German Stocks Slide as Q3 Recession Risk Rises
GERMANY: stocks drop -1.3% on the open as the probability of re-entering a #Quad3 Recession continues to rise https://t.co/NDmWqlhYDz
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled
The good news: attacks have come down markedly (ex Lebanon), and the fragile ceasefire seems to be holding. The bad news: so far, almost no movement of ships in-and-out of the Strait of Hormuz. Several Chinese oil tankers have pre-positioned to...
Major Chinese Banks Cut Pay as Economy Stalls
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
China's Q1 GDP Forecast Hits 4.8%, Annual 4.7%
Yicai: "Chief economists surveyed by Yicai predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year....
AI Automates Models; Humans Still Win Negotiations
Negotiation up 300%. Financial Modeling up 300%. Not AI tools. The skills everyone said AI would replace. AI builds the model now. What it can't do: sit across from a skeptical CFO and hold the line. The premium is shifting. To the humans...
Dual‑Perspective Stock Analysis Prompt for Balanced Investing
Try this prompt to help you see two sides of every story: "Act as an institutional-grade equity analyst. Perform a deep-dive, adversarial analysis of [Insert Stock Name/Ticker] using the following structure: 1. The Bull Case The Moat: Define the specific competitive advantage (e.g.,...
IGP
#IGP revenue down but been winning orders. Net Cash now £20m against Mkt Cap about £50m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 15.9 falling to 13.7 before stripping cash out. I don't hold.
AI PDF Tool Cuts Tax Prep From Hours to Minutes
Tax deadline countdown is ON… ⏳ and the chaos is real. RIP tax season stress ☠️ Wondershare PDFelement just turned what used to take me 6 painful hours into a clean 15-minute workflow. AI receipt scanning. Smart redaction. One-click form filling.
Earn Vendor Preference in an AI‑Driven Market
Winning the Invisible Journey: How to Secure Vendor Preference in an AI-Driven Market by @Timothy_Hughes https://t.co/d30wMJYcDC @DLAIgnite #SocialSelling #DigitalSelling #Sales #SalesTips #SalesLeader #Salesforce #Marketing #Leadership #MarketingStrategy #MarketingSuccess https://t.co/kpOul8XZJA
Lambiase’s McLaren Move Could Spark Verstappen’s Departure
In a major development, #RedBull head of racing Gianpiero Lambiase is expected to leave the team for #McLaren. He is under contract with Red Bull through the end of 2027 but perhaps the move can be completed prior to 2028...
SOM Boosts Buyback to $6M, Details M&A Framework
#SOM increased Buyback Programme (previously announced) to $6m and given more details on M&A Framework. I don't recall much M&A previously so that's interesting.
B2B Accounting Software Invests $40M in F1 Sponsorship
Did you notice who the F1 movie's main sponsor is? It's not random. Apple pulled in $40M in sponsorships for that. Here's the inside story of creating a fictional Formula 1 team and how an unsexy, boring B2B accounting software bet millions...
Core PCE Climbs 0.4% for Third Consecutive Month
"Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month" -Nick Timiraos, WSJ
Rising US Gas Prices May Curb Mexico Pipeline Exports
As @OSullivanMeghan and I wrote @ForeignAffairs, with energy being weaponized, countries will seek to curb imports & boost domestic supply. If US gas prices soar, there's a risk pipeline gas to Mexico would be a prime target to restrict exports...
Identify the Biggest Barrier to Reading the Room
I hope you enjoy Part 2 of the L&D Navigator series. What's the one thing that most gets in the way of putting down the map and picking up your own reading of the room instead? https://t.co/9S6rdzLenZ #LearningChangemakers #TheLDLeader #LearningLeaders
Trust Wins: Knowing When to Skip AI
Trust is becoming the key differentiator in white-collar work. As AI tools like Claude plug-ins enter finance and cybersecurity, companies are mapping not just what can be automated, but what must remain human to maintain reliability and accountability. In this phase, the...
US Forces Allies to Adopt Stricter China Chip Bans
So, after a war in Iran, threats to leave NATO, and zero focus on Asia, what position is Washington in to demand this of Japan or the Netherlands? Washington pushes allies to match tougher China chip curbs under new bill New US...
German Industrial Output Drops 0.3% in February
Good Morning from Germany, where industrial production unexpectedly declined in Feb, even before the Iran war started, casting doubt on hopes for a rapid recovery. Output fell 0.3% MoM, dragged down mainly by construction and consumer goods. https://t.co/NXOwFKBgQ8 https://t.co/GcbQrapdzf
Replit Gives Solo Founders Full Teams, Boosting Growth
There’s a reason bootstrapped solo businesses are accelerating on Replit… we gave builders entire teams.
Similar Market Caps Imply a 50/50 Merger
Nonsense. The market caps are roughly the same, they would likely be merged 50 / 50 unless their public valuations are dramatically off.
Russia Offers Sanctioned LNG to South Asia at 40% Discount
Russia is offering to sell US-sanctioned LNG to South Asian buyers at a *40% discount* 🇷🇺🚢 Moscow is seeking to leverage the global natural gas crunch to lure energy-hungry countries like Bangladesh and India https://t.co/SsirotyuhI
Thinking Isn't Enough—Execution Determines Success
A PhD taught me how to think. Entrepreneurship taught me that thinking isn't enough. The gap between knowing and doing is where most businesses quietly die. Not in dramatic failure — just in endless "almost ready." The market doesn't reward the best-prepared...