Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
US Iran Strike Sparks Red Market, Treasuries Bleed
March 2, 2025. The market opens to a sea of red following news of a U.S. attack on the Iranian regime. Treasuries bleed in anticipation of inflationary supply shocks. Trend-following strategies are in disarray. What's up with carry? by @jordonezjr https://t.co/oeugyTwcEN https://t.co/2Oq7Njel14
Global Trade at Crossroads: Autonomy Replaces Win‑Win
#tradeXpresso: Global trade is at a crossroads. Tariffs 📈. Weaponised dependencies. Collapsing WTO norms. The win-win logic is replaced by strategic autonomy & zero-sum thinking. Three futures for global trade. Which path are we on? https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb #TradePolicy30 https://t.co/2eDwAvKjMM
March Jobs Data Reflects Reversal After February Distortions
US Jobs Report @HedgeyeUSA 1. Feb NFP #’s were negatively distorted by weather, strikes, et al .. so March benefited from the reversal 2. Given the distortions, revisions & labor supply dynamics, most of the signal in the monthly employment data...
March Workweek Dip Stalls Payroll Growth, 12‑month Rise at 3.9%
From the March payroll report: INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to...
AI Anxiety Fuels Job Stagnation and Uncertainty
Jobs are weird now. Lots of stagnation, lots of fear, lots of ai-pilled CEOs trying to force llms into work, lots of people automating their work, no clear productivity gains lots of concern about job loss/career tracks. I wanted to...
Both Employment Levels and Hiring Flows Matter for Labor Health
Great @lydiadepillis article. One of the things I became convinced of at CEA is that stocks (employment) & flows (hires, fires, ease of finding a job) are both important to labor market health, but economists tend to weight the former...
Shift to US Treasuries as Gold Peaks
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
VC Funding Surges, But Concentrates in Big Funds
Venture capital is rebounding, but not evenly. Most of the $47.8 billion raised in Q1 is flowing into large, established funds, as investors prioritize track record in a more uncertain environment. Regulation, geopolitics and overallocation are pushing capital toward perceived safety. The...
Operationalize AI: From Pilot to Organizational Core
AI is no longer a side project. It’s becoming the operating system of modern organizations ⚡ But most companies are still stuck between pilots and real impact. Here’s an updated framework to build a truly AI-driven organization: 🎯 1. Set...
Inside the Real Work of Investment Bankers Daily
NEW ODD LOTS: This is what investment bankers actually do all day. @tracyalloway and I talk to Scott Bok, former longtime CEO of Greenhill & Co, to understand better what the industry does and why companies pay up for their services https://t.co/bLORIQJ8Oq
Markets Now Directly Drive Consumer Prices, Lag Vanishes
Yet another example of the shrinking time lag between market price changes and consumer price changes. While the market may not be the economy, what is becoming all too clear is that the economy is now the markets.
LinkedIn Turns Cold Prospecting Into Warm Relationships
I sat down with Brynne Tillman and Dr. Lorenzo Bizzi on this week's episode of the Sales Gravy podcast where we discuss how prospecting doesn't have to be a grind with LinkedIn. Historically, sellers have hated prospecting because it feels cold...
BritBox Success Reshapes Global British TV Strategy
BritBox CEO on How Success for BBC Studios’ U.S. Streamer Is Impacting Global British TV Strategy https://t.co/c96KZwHUp6 via @variety
No Numbers in Founder Updates Signal Trouble
From one of my advisors who is a long-time angel: "I’ve been writing down my portfolio each month with 'spidey sense' assessments of founders whose updates have been getting fluffy. No numbers in the update = not a good sign."
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
Tech and Finance Moguls Rush Back Into Media
Sam Altman buying TBPN, Larry Ellison bankrolling deals for CNN and CBS News, Jamie Dimon toying with launching a news outlet because "media’s the great influencer." The titans of industry want to be in the media biz again https://t.co/raamH7VAdM
Meta's AI Ad Stack Drives 3% Conversion Boost
RecSys, ad ranking, and the AI advertising opportunity Certainly, Meta seems to be investing resources into advanced architectures for ad retrieval, ad ranking, and RecSys more generally. And the results are impressive: a 3% increase in conversions might be interpreted as...
US Services PMI Shows Declining Activity, Slowing Hiring
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
War Often Spurs Market Gains, Not Losses
Most people think war = bad time to invest. History says the opposite. Markets have actually performed better during major conflicts. And “waiting it out” can cost you major gains. I broke it down with real data. Reply “war” and I’ll DM you the video.
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Dips Despite Weaker Household Data
US job growth bounced back in Mar, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market was holding up as the war w/Iran began. Employers added 178k jobs, easily beating forecasts of 60k. Still, the household survey painted a...
Job Seekers and Tech Employers Warn AI Disruption
MyPOV: Job seekers, tech employers voice concerns over AI’s impact https://t.co/tKaRqPmGgj @CGTNOfficial @MarkNiuWrite @rwang0 @constellationr #AIF2026
Analyzing the Sysco‑Restaurant Depot Deal on Deeper Dive
I joined @jonathanmaze on his "Deeper Dive" podcast earlier this week to discuss the Sysco/Restaurant Depot deal. #restaurant #distribution #Sysco $SYY https://t.co/aJyWwsj04T
Stay Focused: Intensity Times Time Drives Success
Success = (Intensity of Focus) × (Time in Same Direction) Most people break this by: • changing direction too often • splitting intensity across too many goals
Trump's Exaggerated Claim: Iran's Forces Far From Destroyed
Trump said, "[Iran's] navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten." Typical -- Trump's rhetoric doesn't match reality. https://t.co/Tu24oA8RNH
Job Growth at 53k Matches Breakeven for Stable Unemployment
GS: Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth now stands at 53k, roughly in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. https://t.co/FCJycyPkFU
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Fintechs Chartering Banks Face Traditional Price‑book Valuations
Gonna be interesting to see what happens to all these fintechs that are chartering banks, which are commonly valued on a price/book basis (rather than imaginary startup metrics, like rev multiples or MAUs)
Italy Prolongs Iran War Fuel Tax Cut, Costing €500 Million
Italy extends Iran war fuel-tax cut at the cost of €500 million https://t.co/7xt4Nt9sDu via @donatopmancini https://t.co/Pgpw2aMYNs
Media Fragmentation Empowers Startups Over Volume‑Driven Giants
Media fragmentation should benefit startups: the biggest companies have to play a volume game, whereas startups can afford to be super targeted. We just have to get over our addiction to engagement-maxxing. https://t.co/bI0yTX9ZW6
Centuries of Tech, but Finance Tools Stay Static
In 532 years, we went from quill pens to quantum computers. The system businesses use to understand their own finances? Unchanged.
US Data Center Buildout Fueled by Imported Components, Ignoring Tariffs
Pretty good Bloomberg look at the imports powering (pun intended) the US data center buildout, but it omits mention of US tariffs (AD/CVD, 232s, etc) - some dating back more than a decade - on large power transformers, electrical steel,...
Dynamic Discounts Demand Complex Purchase‑history Integration
I was working through requirements for a client project this week and hit a pricing structure that sounds completely reasonable until you try to implement it. The client sells an introductory course, an advanced course, and a set of individual topic...
LLMs Can't Render JavaScript, Trust Their SEO Advice Cautiously
Friendly reminder to be very careful taking technical SEO advice from LLMs; they will confidently make statements about how sites operate that simply aren’t true in many cases, because most LLMs can’t render JavaScript. This includes Claude.
Don't Kill Winners: Wait 5+ Days Before Cutting
You've probably killed at least one winning ad this year… And the data would've told you not to. Both relearn and fatigue produce identical surface symptoms: → CPM rises → CTR drops → ROAS declines The difference is what's happening underneath. The "premature execution...
AI Threatens Gateway Jobs, Stalling Career Mobility
AI may reshape not just jobs, but the pathways between them. Millions of workers without degrees rely on “gateway” roles like admin or customer service to move into higher-paying jobs, yet many of these roles and the transitions they enable are...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Five Claude Features Power 80% of Our Workflow
5 Claude features are doing 80% of the work at my company. I didn't find half of them on my own. My team did. Here's the exact setup we run daily.
Healthcare Drives US Job Growth as Other Sectors Shrink
The big picture: The US economy has added only 260,000 jobs in the past year. 380,000 jobs were added in healthcare. Most other industries *lost* jobs Federal gov't -330,000 in past year Information -76,000 Manufacturing -75,000 Finance -67,000 State gov't -47,000 Professional services -40,000 Retail -30,000 Mining -17,000 #jobs
Investors Flee OpenAI for More Profitable Anthropic
🚨 Investors abandon OpenAI and flock to arch rival Anthropic | OpenAI’s shocking fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic ✅ OpenAI shares are falling out of favour on secondary markets — in some cases nearly impossible to sell —...
Choose Full‑Time Marketer or Fractional CMO: Know Which Fits
Not sure whether you need a full-time marketing hire or a fractional CMO? I wrote about exactly this: the real differences, what each model actually costs, and how to know which one fits where your business is right now. https://www.mallorymusante.com/blog/should-you-hire-an-employee-or-a-factional-cmo-for-your-marketing Worth a...
Jagged Career Paths Fuel Growth and Resilience
Today is my last day at Fruitist. 🫐 It's been a wild 0→1 build standing up a global talent function from the ground up at a $1B CPG company. I'll be embarking on one of the most important chapters of...
Publish Research to Earn Backlinks From Journalists
If you want backlinks without begging... Here's a tip: Publish research. Journalists and creators need credible sources and research helps you earn the link. Give them one. More here: https://t.co/PNytCOQeuq
March Jobs Data Removes Fed Trade‑off Pressure
What does the March jobs report mean for the Fed? It keeps one of the harder problems off the table. Powell said this week the war created the possibility of a greater inflation/labor market tradeoff but said the Fed didn't face...
AI Turns Public Transparency Into Competitor Blueprint
Building in public has been fundamentally changed by the advent of AI. Pains me to say it, but the transparency playbook that built my career now hands competitors a blueprint. Here's what I still share (and what I never will. Anymore.) https://t.co/dejGIMcP7M
Ignore Noise, See Strong Economy and Industrial Recovery
Ignore the noise and focus on the signal. Our economy is doing well and industrials are recovering.
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Claim: US Entrepreneurial Dynamism Still Outpaces Pre‑2020 (Sarcastic)
Fortunately, you are probably not aware that the (assumed) level of entrepreneurial dynamism in the US labor market continues to exceed all periods prior to 2020... /s https://t.co/pbpkvBkZ3D
Validate with 20 Paying Customers Before Any Setup
Are you thinking about starting a business? Some might think you should begin by incorporating a company, building a website, purchasing equipment, getting insurance, working on your pricing strategy, making some ads, and setting everything up. Wrong. Your first step is to go...