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Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage

The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning of the industrial supply chain, the BDI is one of the purest real-economy indicators in global markets. Current level (~2,000) is roughly long-term mid-cycle implies: * healthy but not tight shipping markets * rates above cash breakeven * moderate profitability But shipbuilding has collapsed. The dry bulk orderbook is near 30-year lows as a % of fleet. The result is future supply growth is constrained. The BDI chart suggests we are in a stable mid-cycle environment, but the structural supply constraint in ships creates the potential for another sharp freight spike later in the decade.