Dollar's Rise Is Modest; Will Fall Post‑war
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're going back to Dollar weakness as soon as war ends... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75 https://t.co/7r3Eaoj99U
Trump Claims Paramount-Discovery Merger Already Finalized
Looks like Trump already views Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery as a done deal based on this infographic he shared on Truth Social https://t.co/xUKYoMv9hq
Turn March Madness Alumni Data Into 50+ Sales Meetings
I've booked over 50 meetings from my March Madness template since starting it. And you can scale it with Sales Navigator. 68 different universities make the tournament. Odds are, at least one of your prospects went to 1 of those schools. Zero sports knowledge...
Mocking NATO Leaves America Isolated, Leadership Lost
You know how we say in Ukraine: now Trump has to eat the mess pie he was baking for others. You either support alliances, respect your friends and their interests, coordinate with them and thus benefit from partnerships with countries close...
First Non‑EU Fiscal Response Signals Upcoming Continental Action
First fiscal response out the block; tiny mind, but I suspect continental governments will not be far behind, as will the EU. Important for the ECB's reaction function too.
One Overachiever Can Undermine Team Productivity
This one is for all the owners, leaders, ceos, founders and managers … how one productive person can destroy all the productivity and many look the other way will always surprise me .. I “get it” cause often it’s not...
Iran Conflict Deepens Fed Rate Split, Fuels Inflation Worries
Fed officials were already before divided the Iran war over what to do about rates. Now the conflict threatens to entrench those positions and make it even harder to reach a consensus "Both sides are going to be able to say...
China Risks Belt‑Road Investments as US‑Israel Iran Conflict Escalates
"China Has a Lot to Lose in the U.S.-Israel War on Iran," my latest in @WSJ @WSJopinion The U.S.-Israel war against Iran isn’t only reshaping security and the balance of power in the Middle East. Its stakes are also high...
Embargo Iranian Oil, as Missed Russian Embargo Cost War
The big mistake the West made in 2022 was to not embargo Russian oil. That would have spiked oil prices further, but Russia's economy would have imploded and it likely wouldn't still be waging war in Ukraine. The lesson for...
Mark‑to‑market Loans Inflate Fund Equity, Lower Risk Weighting
Funds typically mark to market their loan portfolios and their debt, likely resulting in a significant difference in reported values and actual equity. As a reminder, loans to funds from large banks typically have a lower risk weighting than if...
China’s 90% Model: Subsidized Exports Decimate Global Competition
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 For three decades, I have advised over 50 Chinese companies and served on Chinese boards. I have watched American, German, and Japanese companies struggle to compete with Chinese imports. What they face is not competition. It is...
ChatGPT Isn’t Replacing Google Search, Despite Hype
I guess ChatGPT isn’t killing Google search after all. (We knew that, but I still see posts on here and IG saying this daily)
Trump Urged to Welcome Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing
Trump Should Be Open to Chinese Investment in U.S. Manufacturing Private Chinese capital is being locked out of mutually beneficial opportunities. https://t.co/gKtY0mscVo
US, China Push to Seal Trade Talks Before Summit
US, China seek to wrap Paris talks on managed trade, agriculture deals for Xi-Trump summit Managed trade, tough sell in many quarters... https://t.co/XXu7CtHIdB
Trump Threatens Xi Summit Delay without Chinese Hormuz Aid
Trump Floats Xi Summit Delay If China Doesn’t Help in Hormuz “Head of state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations,” he added, without specifying a timeframe for the leaders’ meeting. https://t.co/2UjmNtyIUW
Alibaba's AI Star Lin Junyang Abruptly Exits, Sparking Talent Concerns
Lin Junyang, a technical lead behind turning Alibaba's Qwen into one of world’s most popular open-source AI model series, has left the company in a sudden departure that rattled China’s AI sector and raised questions about talent retention inside one...
LEG Merger Arb Spread Swells to 18% Amid Turmoil
$LEG merger arb is getting juicy. Deal is non-binding. Spread now ~18%. Spread went from ~6% → 18%, mostly on recent mkt turmoil. Mgmt gave $SGI long DD access, cancelled the conf call, and multiple execs just got CoC bonuses. Downside ~10% if...
Run AI in the Cloud, Not Just on Laptop
Hot take: If your AI only works when your laptop is open, it's just a fancy calculator. I moved my daily competitor tracking tasks to MuleRun. It comes with a 24/7 cloud VM. It finishes the work while I'm sleeping. Saving...
Cutting Marketing Won’t Fix Rising CAC—Fix Selling Friction
“The CAC isn’t clearing. We need to cut marketing spend.” I’ve heard that line more than once. On the surface it sounds rational. CAC is rising. Attribution dashboards look weak. So marketing must be the problem. But most of the...
Enterprise Valuation Remains Uncertain Amid Tech Turbulence
A wise man poetically described it as the “time bounded valuation of an enterprise” Who knows with MacroHard and human emulation not to mention terrestrial data centers, it’s hard to know what to wear in the morning let alone how...
Adobe CEO Exit Sparks AI Product Hiring Surge
🚨 Hiring Signal: Adobe Adobe’s CEO of 18 years, Shantanu Narayen, is stepping down. Leadership transitions at this level almost always trigger executive reshuffling and strategic resets. Expect hiring demand in: • AI product leadership • product strategy • executive program management Action: If you want to work...
White‑collar Roles Face Highest AI Disruption Risk
Question for your Monday meeting: "An OpenAI co-founder just showed white-collar pros are most exposed to AI disruption. If we applied that to our org, which roles are highest-exposure? Are we training them, or hoping nobody notices?"
Buyers Get Mastermind, Sellers Receive Limited Bundle Offer
Two Opportunities for Business Buyers and Sellers. Mastermind for buyers and a special seller bundle offer (limited availability) https://t.co/oABZ6O8WSb https://t.co/PC78ONM0nA
Neighbor Releases $2 Bn Frozen
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Falling Metals Signal Strengthening Dollar Trend Over Daily DXY Fluctuations
Falling prices of precious metals are a signal that the dollar is getting stronger overall, even though today the DXY may be down a little. What really matters is the trend and not a day in the life of a...
First Customers Signed in a Week: Essential Web Thrives
Nothing beats putting a new offer into the world and signing your first customers within a week. essential web is growing 🤯
Manufacturing Slows, Housing Index Slightly Rises
Economic Calendar for Mon. Mar. 16 8:30am - NY Fed manufacturing index for March: Expected 3.9; Prior 7.1 10:00 - NAHB housing market index for March: Expected 37; Prior 36
India Buys Pricey Russian Oil Legally, Boosting Putin
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
One Idea, Multiple Assets, Unlimited Distribution
The power of a content system is not hype. It is a viable strategy. Why it works: - One idea - Multiple assets - Unlimited distribution
Gold-to-Crude Ratio Hits Record, Signals Potential Peak
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
System Builders Gain Exponential Edge Over AI Dabblers
Hot take: The real AI divide is dabblers vs. system builders. Dabblers ask for one-shot blog posts. Builders create prompt libraries, workflows and iteration loops. One group saves time. The other compounds advantage. I break down how I've been using Claude & ChatGPT to...
WTI and Dollar Slip, Markets Hope Exit Ramps Amid Conflict
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
India, Russia, Iran War Issues Are Distinct, Not Conflated
There have been two major developments involving India, Russia, and the Iran war being conflated. These are two separate issues altogether. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/SjgRO1nWPF #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/nhLc5LS8wH
Mitigating Legal Risks of AI-Driven Recruitment and Redundancy
The legal risks of AI-driven #recruitment and redundancy (and how to govern them properly) @HRZone https://t.co/EFZosuqPhM #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #FutureofHR
No Policy Can Replace Hormuz Oil Flow Loss
I did not say there's nothing we can do to open the Strait of Hormuz. I said there are no policy options that can offset the loss of flow from the Strait of Hormuz.
Systems, Not Time Management, Enable Work-Life Balance
I run a pub. I have a one-year-old. And I don’t work 24/7. It’s not time management. It’s systems.
Global Bear Market Spreads Across All Sectors and Nations
As the decline in the stock market gets more broad-based, people will wake up to the idea that it is really a bear market. The same is true at a country level. As more countries outside the US join the...
Free Practical Product Webinars Featuring Top Industry Leaders
7 new webinar recordings on YouTube. All free, all practical. 4x Awesome Guest Speakers: 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿 Petra Wille (author, Strong Product People) The jump from IC to leader changes everything. What stays the same, what doesn't,...
Drone Attack Threatens Dubai's Aviation‑Driven Economy
Dubai under serious stress. Airport Dubai atau DXB tutup akibat serangan drone berdekatan. Implications? •Home of Emirates, the world’s most profitable airline, pretax profit USD6.2b (31 Mar 25). •Dubai Airport is the 2nd busiest in the world. •The aviation sector amat penting,...
Shortening Conflict Drives Oil Prices Down, Prolonging Rises
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
U.S. Softens Ban on Uyghur Forced‑Labor Goods
“Amid the…turns in the Trump administration’s China trade policy, one feature has attracted little attention: the [U.S.] has apparently eased its efforts to block imports of goods made using the forced labor of China’s Uyghur population.” @economicsnoah https://t.co/C9UGkHv9WW
Championing Inclusive FinTech: Engaging Future Tech Leaders
Pleased to support the Talent & Careers Track at the Inclusive FinTech Forum. Afterward, Stephen was kind to invite Bob and myself to visit the @CarnegieMellon for an interactive session with students, where we explored tech leadership, careers, and inclusive...
Belgian PM Urges Russia Normalization for Cheap Energy
Belgium’s PM Bart de Wever: “We must normalise relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense. [...] We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe, without being naïve towards Putin.” https://t.co/BopPAyhKSL
Gulf Fertilizer Plants Handle One‑third of Global Trade
The Gulf region is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, with about one third of global trade in such nutrients going through the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/S3lcwCkFLM https://t.co/FU6QDYHKHD
Oil Shock Drives French Bond Yields to 2011 High
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Trump, Xi Explore Formal Mechanisms to Manage US‑China Trade
Reuters, citing sources: “The two sides discussed the establishment of new formal mechanisms to help manage trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies that may be considered by Trump and Xi in Beijing, the sources said.” https://t.co/8xXdogaiRy
UniCredit's €35bn Hostile Bid Meets Commerzbank Resistance
Good Morning from #Germany, where UniCredit has launched a €35bn hostile takeover bid for Commerzbank, offering a premium of just 4% over Friday’s closing price, acc to BBG calculations. Commerzbank's management is likely to rebuff UniCredit's €30.8 per share offer,...
Entrepreneurs Turn Problems Into Profit Opportunities
Everyone sees a problem: 'Someone should fix that.' Ecom founders see a problem: 'I can build a business that fixes that.' Different mindset. Different bank account.
Iran Attacks Fujairah, Spares Saudi Pipeline Bypass
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war: Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack. But so far, the Saudi pipeline bypass hasn't been attacked (and neither the Yemeni...