Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it. They did during the Ukraine war and Covid. Countries will switch to coal, change behavior, et al. That's what Jim Cramer was saying as well, he said he just couldn't imagine Iran controlling something important, just bomb them to the stone age, he said. Then I listened to @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway conversation with @Rory_Johnston and Johnston noted that this view is the conventional wisdom in the markets. That makes sense. Recency bias is that shutting Hormuz is manageable, just as shutting off Russian oil exports was manageable. in 2022. The markets will realize this situation is different, but it'll take a bit more time. Then when something serious breaks, they'll panic. There will be the pre-panic era, which we're in now, and then the post-panic era. The world will look fundamentally different.
Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Flow, Spikes Food Prices
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
One Course, Too Many Audiences: Choose One
One course can't do three different jobs. Mike's was trying to funnel people into coaching, work as a standalone product, AND serve student athletes. How it started? Funneling people into coaching. How it went? Serving solopreneurs and a standalone and student athletes,...
Culture Grows From Actions, Not Stated Values
Culture isn’t what you say you value, it’s how people behave. Values only work when they’re written as actions, not ideals. Reward the behavior, and the culture follows. Video from Urban Land Institute (ULI) 2024 with CRE investor and creator,...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
Amazon Expands AI Shop Direct to Third‑party Catalogs
Focus on ecommerce? -> Amazon opens up new AI-enabled Buy for Me, Shop Direct options for merchants "Amazon’s Shop Direct debuted in 2025 as a means for Amazon to display products that were relevant to shoppers, even if those products weren’t...
RIA Valuations Dip as Earnouts Grow Longer
This is, indirectly, how valuation multiples for RIAs are starting to come down slightly. Because the headline number of "such-and-such got a certain multiple of EBITDA" isn't the walk-away-with-cash valuation, it's the valuation including post-closing growth contingencies. In the past, that...
Grant‑cutter Can't Define DEI, Relies on Blind AI
Ok let's talk about it: the DOGE bro responsible for cutting DEI grants can't explain what DEI is... in a deposition 💀 In case you missed it: he used ChatGPT to build a spreadsheet with a "Yes/No DEI" column. He didn't...
Stop Being the Ceiling: Focus on Numbers, People, Culture
If you’re an agency owner still doing creative direction, project management, and client calls, you’re the ceiling for your business. As Michael Gerber says in The E-Myth Revisited, “If your business depends on you, you don’t own a business. You...
Housing Starts Beat Forecast, Yet Momentum Questioned
Housing starts surprised to the upside in the latest report, rising to a 1.487 million SAAR and coming in above consensus expectations. On the surface, the headline suggests renewed momentum in residential construction. However... https://t.co/1r862BDOdv
U.S.-China Rivalry Ends; Focus Shifts to Acceptable Terms
The ‘competition’ between the U.S. and China is over. It’s just a question of the terms they will tolerate us to live by.
Initial Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 213,000
"In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000."
Leadership Is About Trust, Customer Focus, and Humility
The best CEO advice I received throughout my career: • customer service is not a department • sales is the hardest job in any company • customer focus > competitor focus • trust is #1 core value • agency (can do) > intelligence (IQ) • adopt...
Inside the CNN‑CBS Merger: Power Shifts and Trump’s Influence
NEW: The CNN–CBS Marriage Plot: • Will Bari Weiss expand her remit? • Who will actually run the network? • How much will David Ellison cut, and how will he cut? • And where does Trump factor in? https://t.co/BuiVS0srnq @PuckNews
German Manufacturing Orders Plunge 11% Amid Green Policies, Sanctions
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Halts Global Shipping
Good point. There s no viable workaround for the Strait of Hormuz. Ships and supply chains are at a standstill.
Iran Claims Tanker Attack, Shipping Risks Surge Globally
Iran says it hit an American tanker. If true…. Iraq has spent the last few days upping the danger for ships. The global risk keeps increasing for ships, crew, and cargo. The Strait of Hormuz and no safe movement...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
CIOs Shift AI Focus From Productivity to Innovation
1/ The biggest shift in enterprise AI strategy just showed up in our data. In my new Futurum CIO Global Decision Maker Survey, the traditional AI narrative just broke. CIO priorities are moving from productivity → innovation. The smart chatbot era of AI...
New Flexible $50/Mo Prompt Tracking Pricing, Free Trial
We just launched what I believe is the best pricing structure for custom prompt tracking (in @Ahrefs Brand Radar). Here's why: → Starts at just $50/mo → Pricing is based on "checks," not prompts → Pick the cadence that fits your needs: daily, weekly,...
Donna Langley’s Visionary Leadership Elevates Universal’s Film Ecosystem
I cannot say enough good things about Donna Langley’s leadership of Universal. First and foremost, she is a superb film maker. Add to that her grace, business acumen and courage in making important decisions that have real ramifications supporting the entire...
Executives Waste 23 Meeting Hours Weekly; Reclaim Ten
Executives spend 23 hours/week in meetings. 67% are failures. What if you could reclaim 10 of those hours this week? https://t.co/NSN09jpDaQ
Iceye Revenue Doubles to $294M, Targets Another Double
.@Iceye 2025 financials: Revenue doubled, to $294M, & will double again this year; $153M in operating cash flow; EBITDA over $176M; $1.76B in backlog. https://t.co/FaGdnli5TX https://t.co/IqCzJ853gK
2028 Will Force Massive Software Debt Rollovers
A lot of software debt is going to have to be rolled over in 2028. Via Torsten Slok https://t.co/Ddov6qo7ey
Whiteboard Tactics Unlock Big NHS Negotiation Wins
The Whiteboard Windfall: A Lesson in NHS Negotiations by @Timothy_Hughes https://t.co/dOWFQNFRXU @DLAIgnite #SocialSelling #DigitalSelling #Sales #SalesTips #SalesLeader #Salesforce #SalesEnablement #RevOps #Leadership #Marketing #SalesNegotiation https://t.co/sWTVEyWdht
Investors Favor AI; Non‑AI Startups Face Funding Drought
I’ve seen a few media companies and dtc brands raising funding right now. I’m not an active angel…but I can’t imagine doing a non-ai company seed investment at the moment. God bless those companies. What’s the market like for non-ai...
Management Quality Trumps Cheap Valuation in Investing
A cheap stock with a bad management team is not a good investment. Valuation means nothing if the people running the business are misallocating capital, chasing the wrong metrics, or treating the company like their personal piggy bank. I look for leaders...
Yen Hits Intervention Threshold, MoF Faces Decision
As Bloomberg notes, the yen has reached levels where Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) and perhaps Secretary Bessent have a choice to make; the yen is clearly in the zone where intervention is a real possibility 1/ https://t.co/gE34g8gEW4
Yield-Oil Divergence Signals Market Concern Shift
War continues. I am watching the cross asset class correlations. So far, bond yields and oil have moved together on inflation concerns. But eventually high oil prices are negative for growth. When bond yields fall as oil prices rise it’s...
Finland Moves From Neutrality to Geopolitical Focal Point
Finland, a nation of less than six million that for decades inhabited a diplomatic limbo between East and West, now sits at the center of these geopolitical cross currents https://t.co/k9rSYzOhx1 via @liamdenning @loupalu @opinion https://t.co/qncnWOqcmj
China Extends Ban, Halts BHP Iron Ore Purchases
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...
Retain Knowledge and Talent Amid Career Fluidity
An HR guide to retaining knowledge (and talent) through career fluidity @HRZone https://t.co/Vy0GtKFcTy #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #FutureofHR
Indonesia Poised to Lift Fuel Prices Amid Ongoing Conflict
If the conflict lasts, Indonesia will raise fuel prices, which is what it did by end 2022 as the subsidy rose by 30bn…
One‑Time Pricing Opens Affiliate Management for Startups
We just changed Refindie’s pricing (affiliate management system) to support early stage businesses. I know how heavy monthly costs feel when you’re just starting. So we removed the barrier and introduced a one-time payment. Small businesses deserve to get affiliates too 🙏
AI Opens Decades-Long Leadership Opportunity for Women
AI may become one of the biggest leadership opportunities for women in decades. As AI reshapes business, the real advantage will not come from the technology alone, but from who builds the governance, sets the direction and turns capability into responsible...
AI Search Becomes New SEO for Brand Visibility
Brands need to be visible to AI search, not just consumers. For lesser-known brands, algorithmic attention is a game-changer for visibility and getting on the map, just like SEO was in the past. #AIMarketing #BrandVisibility https://t.co/z0KsyjshT3
India VIX’s Low Level Signals Complacency Amid Global Tensions
How come the India VIX below is lower than it was during the Russia-Ukraine crisis? The US Vix is also lower than last year's wars and the Tariff announcements. Either we have not discounted the real extent of what has...
US Initiates Trade Probe Targeting EU, China, India
US launches probe into trading partners including the EU, China and India https://t.co/JsVy4bXFEc Announcement: https://t.co/UgsOQ97Tzp
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
Elon Musk Launches xAI, AI Startup Announced July 12
#ThisDayInTechHistory. March 9, 2023. @ElonMusk founds xAI and officially announced the artificial intelligence company on July 12, 2023. (ABC 7 Chicago) #AI https://t.co/0JnnnqO4yT
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Transport Services Inflation Leads Core CPI Pressure
Transport services inflation will be the first core CPI/HICP components to feel the heat, though these data are very sensitive to ampling in any given month.
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
German 10‑Year Yield Hits 2023 High Amid Inflation Fears
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
Renewables Can Replace LNG Faster than EVs Replace Oil
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Global Economic Power Shifts: Asia Regains Dominance
If you compress several centuries of economic history into a single visualization, one thing becomes obvious. Stability is the exception. Not the rule. Power in the global economy has always shifted. In the 1600s, Asia dominated. China and the Mughal Empire accounted for...
Seeking Real Experiences Working With Neurodivergent Colleagues
Need your honest opinion? What's been your experience working with neurodivergent people? cc @hacking_hr , @sbrownehr @MeetJMB @themmanuelfaith
Iran Ramps up Energy Attacks as Oil Stays Sub‑$100
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
US Launches Trade Probe, Reviving Trump-Era Tariffs
US starts trade probe into the EU, China in Trump’s tariffs revival https://t.co/Yi7oHtrATc via @hlowenkron @catherine_lucey https://t.co/DnU0Aq5dCU