ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t action became permanent gov’t policy.
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Pitch by Showing Less Work, Not Brilliance
Next time you’re pitching anything to anyone, remember this. They’re not thinking about how brilliant your idea is. They’re not thinking about the money. They’re not thinking about the glory. The only question on their mind is simple: How much more work is this going...
Worst Loans Hit First as Credit Cycles Collapse
FWIW - As the worst loans are made at the very peak of the credit cycle, credit cycles invariably burst on a LIFO basis. The worst always go first, and frequently through a high-storey window leaving no skid marks.
Century AI Hits Product-Market Fit, Signals Success
Bright green flags Century AI reached "Product Market Fit" 🙌 Yesterday someone left this comment; (btw @whoop you can still buy us for €1m)
Benign CPI Masks Deeper Inflation, Limits Fed’s Options
Why the Fed can't do much with a CPI report that's benign on the surface: It doesn't at all resolve the dilemma Fed officials face when the inflation measure they care about most is less encouraging and a major energy...
Fed Overstates Shelter Inflation's Impact on Target
The odd part is that Fed officials have made a big deal about the importance of falling shelter inflation apparently without remembering it has a smaller impact in their actual inflation target.
AI Determines Who Advances or Gets Replaced
AI is reshaping which leaders get hired, promoted, or replaced. Are you telling a powerful AI impact story about your work? #AI #Career https://t.co/mIefOcbMM8
Too Many Screens Scare Away Genuine Candidates
Validating whether or not a candidate is real by subjecting them to a battery of assessments and screening layers seems like a great way to lose real candidates.
Synthetic Recruiters Will Set Recruiting Back Decades
Apparently the best response to “synthetic candidates” is synthetic recruiters. This whole fiction is going to set back the profession by decades.
Finance Lessons From Disney+ Launch: Forecast, Retention, Board Clarity
The surprisingly true story of launching Disney+ (as told by their finance team) 👇 Here are 5 lessons that stuck with me. 1. Even a beloved brand doesn't make the forecast easier 2. A good launch number can hide a...
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
REI Plans Pay Cuts, Benefit Reductions, Faces Union Legal Challenge
Scoop: REI has told staff it plans to cut pay for future hires and reduce benefits for current staff. REI has also told its union, UFCW, that it plans to unilaterally impose terms from its final offer at recently-unionized stores. Union...
MSTR Spends $1B Annually on Zero‑yield Assets
The capital structure of $MSTR costs just under $1BN to fund every year. The assets of the company earn zero yield. The carry is paid by issuance.
True Productivity: Intentional Habits, Not Endless Busyness
What real productivity looks like: - Plan your day night before - Start before you're ready - Do the hardest task first - Improve 1 thing daily - Finish what you start - Rest with intention - Protect mornings - Work in silence - Review output - Track results Stop chasing...
Accurate Shelter Data Would Show sub‑1.5% CPI, Fed Celebrates
So if Shelter inflation was correctly reported we would have CPI BELOW 1.5% Congrats Fed you WON
Core CPI Stays Modest, Hovering Around 2.5‑3%
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%
AI Coding Rush Sacrifices Quality and Customer Focus
When it comes to AI agents / AI tooling + coding, I hear an awful lot of talk about: Efficiency Iteration speed / PR output rate / lines of codes produced I hear zero mentions about: Quality Customer obsession This will bite back, and it...
Iran Threatens US Tech, Could Trigger Market Sell‑off
🚨 Big Tech in Iran Crosshairs - Is a Market Sell-Off Coming? Everyone watched CPI today… but the real story is Iran. Tehran just warned U.S. tech facilities and banks in the Middle East could be next targets - naming companies...
Google Acquires Wiz to Boost Cloud Security
$GOOGL completes the Wiz acquisition. Sundar Pichai, CEO, Google: “Keeping people safe online has always been part of Google’s mission. This job is increasingly important today, as more companies and governments move their work to the cloud and broadly use generative...
UST 2s Offer Yield Above SOFR Funding Rate
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
Crisis Exposes VCs: Sympathy Tweets, Few Cash, Many Vultures
Crisis removes marketing. In March 2023, "value-add" VCs sent sympathy tweets while founders begged for payroll. A few wired cash, no terms, no leverage. The rest were vultures in venture clothing. https://t.co/OxfY9VN3wI https://t.co/EYgVVU38We
Google Search Console's Branded Queries Filter Now Universal
Heads-up, the branded queries filter in GSC is rolling out to all. I see it now... you should too. :) Note, you can also see this in the Insights reporting (top-level percentage). https://t.co/4Ty3Wo6vv4 https://t.co/EEWOO8eGzQ
Google Pays $32B for Wiz, Now $1B ARR
Google completes $32B acquisition of cloud cybersecurity startup Wiz A source familiar says Wiz crossed $1B in ARR in 2025. https://t.co/1vJmMDOHh1 via @techcrunch
Future Work: Humans and AI Collaborate, Redefining Roles
The future of work isn’t about humans vs AI. It’s about humans working alongside AI and rethinking every role in the process. https://t.co/cxcXEI9Jq6
War's Economics Explained: Theory Meets Today's Conflict
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, or an econ lesson... It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that...
Former Stanford Athletes Launch Tampon Startup for Booming Market
Stories You Won't Find Anywhere Else 👇 Ex-Stanford Athletes’ Tampon Startup Takes on Growing Market https://t.co/6PmYKk2qgF via @sportico @LuisaRBeltran
Vima Raises $100M to Develop Oral Movement Disorder Drug
With $100M, Vima pursues an oral drug for movement disorders https://t.co/gLrhlYDMSy by @gwendolynawu #biotech #startups
Globalization Remains Resilient Amid Bloc Formation Talk
Toldja: "Globalization is proving resilient" https://t.co/IpMqFYjhJK The data's "a counter-narrative to politicians and analysts arguing that economic disengagement and the formation of new, distinct geopolitical blocs are happening in any seismic way" Twas always a silly idea. https://t.co/UcJgPpaAFP
Praise Publicly, Criticize Privately: Protect Your Managerial Seat
This is why you need to learn how to "manage up". I personally follow one rule: praise in public, criticize in private. If I have something good to say, I say it in front of the whole team. If I...
Standardized Playbooks, Not Unicorns, Drive Scalable Success
McDonald’s doesn’t need world-class chefs at every restaurant. That’s the whole point. My second job ever when I was 14 was working at McDonald’s. At 14, the best meal I could make on my own was a bowl of cereal or...
Bath & Body Works to Amplify Influencer Reach Tenfold
Bath & Body Works plans to increase influencer activity 10x as part of its brand transformation. 🧴 During its Q4 earnings call, CEO Daniel Heaf said the company wants thousands of creators posting about its products in their own voice. Another sign...
Transparent Deal Journey: Real Client Success Steps
Mike’s actual path to a successful deal without lies and/or hype. This is a real journey of a client spelled out step by step. https://t.co/rCbnSHUqpo #SmallBusiness & Deal Making #SMB https://t.co/aObkNecA7n
Whack‑a‑Mole Inflation Hits Essentials,
The biggest problem for many Americans is that we have "whack-a-mole" inflation. Just as some items get back to more normal price points, other items start spiking. It's hard to budget and plan when you don't know what's spiking next. Look...
Core CPI Hits 5‑Year Low, Yet 3‑Month Rate Rises
Two asterisks to what would normally be considered a fairly decent CPI report. First, obviously, this was before the economic fallout from the Iran war. Second, the very favorable data imputation in the October report (due to the govt shutdown) unwinds after...
Biotech Winter: Funding Freeze, IPO Surge, Path to Thaw
Biotech Science at Less Than Zero | Ep. 955 https://t.co/4DXKsaKXdO [00:49] Biotech capital winter deep dive [01:17] Scientific leaps vs frozen markets [02:31] The 2020–2021 biotech bubble [03:42] Crossover funds fuel IPO surge [04:56] Interest rates freeze biotech funding [07:58] Negative enterprise value phenomenon [10:37] Why Big Pharma...
CPI Matches Expectations, Inflation Remains Benign
Few #CPI takeaways: 1) Headline CPI +0.3% in line with exp; core +0.2% MoM also inline with exp. Unrounded core +0.216% 2) Pretty benign inflation read. Recall in recent years there's been some 1Q inflation accelerations; Jan renewed fears of such, but...
High Performance Means Building Conditions for Team Results
"High performance" is one of the most abused terms in business. It's vague enough to mean anything. Boards love it because it sounds strategic. Senior leaders love it because it gives them cover to fire people fast and call it...
UNF Shareholders Receive $155 Cash Plus Cintas Shares
Deals deals and ..one long expected….Unifirst(UNF) and Cintas((CTAS) UNF holders getting combo of $155 cash per shr+0.7720 shr of CTAS
Real‑time Shelter Data Cuts Inflation Outlook to Under 2%
Update on our Alt Inflation Indicators: Real time shelter continues to run quite below official stats. We show more real time shelter running just +0.2% vs 3.0% in BLS stats. Subbing this alt shelter into CPI, we get headline inflation < 1.6%...
China’s 2025 Car Exports Eclipse Germany Despite Population Advantage
Yes, the numbers are that crazy. Not impossible obviously, but crazy. The increase in China's vehicle/ car exports over the course of 2025 was ~ 2m cars and it acceletated toward the end of the year. ...
Louverture's Leadership: The Only Successful Slave Revolt
Toussaint Louverture led a slave revolt in Haiti in the 1700s and won. He led a revolution and established a new government. I’m almost certain that, over the tens of thousands of years that slavery has existed, this is...
Utilities Soar, Gasoline Drops; CPI Modestly Up
Price changes over last year (February CPI report) Gas Utilities: +10.9% Fuel Oil: +6.2% Electricity: +4.8% Medical Care: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.9% Shelter: +3.0% Overall CPI: +2.4% Food at home: +2.4% Transportation: +2.2% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2% Gasoline: -5.6%
February Inflation Stagnates at 2.4% Amid Rising Costs
JUST IN: A cool February inflation reading. Inflation remained at 2.4% (y/y) in February, the same as January. This reading was before the war in Iran began, so gas prices were still below $3 average. -->Note that some items had larger...
Growth without Ads Isn’t a Badge of Honor
I can’t believe I have to say this: Growing without spending money on ads is not a flex Marketing and sales are not mutually exclusive Word of mouth is not a marketing channel Having a good product is not marketing SEO and AEO/GEO/LLMO are the...
Westward Gulf Pipelines Become Critical in Coming Weeks
In the coming days and weeks, a lot may hinge on the pipelines running West from the Gulf. Chartbook Top Links of the day just dropped: https://t.co/olUgBDf1dD
Unbalanced Globalization Persists: Insights From PGIM’s Daleep Singh
A conversation between me and PGIM's Daleep Singh (recorded before the bombs started falling on Tehran) that covers a number of big macro themes -- including the persistence of an unhealthy and unbalanced forms of globalization. https://t.co/9i02acEiiE
What to Call Tr
I never liked the name Unicorn but if: $1 Billion = Unicorn $10 Billion = Decacorn What is $1 Trillion? $10 Trillion?
USTs Slide as Record IG Issuance Fuels Supply Pressure
Oddly USTs under pressure ahead of what is expected to be a soft Feb CPI (0.2 core) print. Supply seems to be part of it. Yesterday's 11-deal IG issuance ($66B) was the biggest single session on record.
Founders Crave Freedom, Cling to Control—Letting Go Matters
A pattern I've noticed: A lot of founders say they want freedom. But what they protect most is control. Learning to let go is the real work.