Iran Could Spark Global Oil Crisis via Hormuz
I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a big chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to cause a global crisis. Thanks to @SoumayaKeynes for having me on the @FT podcast to talk about this https://t.co/WPTCRsLgOp
Young, Black, Hispanic, Asian Americans Face Rising Unemployment
Important point: February was a dismal jobs report. But look closer at who is suffering the most in this frozen job market... Young people African Americans Hispanic Americans Asian Americans These are the groups that have had the biggest uptick in unemployment rates. https://t.co/zszvNZ2Xv3
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
Cattle Prices Surge Ahead of Other Commodities Amid Inflation
So do the cattle look at the inflationary trade taking place and go higher or do they look at the equities and the consumer being hurt by higher energy products and a slowing economy possibly and come under pressure....
February Sees Job Losses Across Nearly All Sectors
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs
February Jobs Data Deepens Fed Split over Rates
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
Current Curve Rerating Signals Faster Resolution Than 2022
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
Risk‑off Sentiment Keeps Dollar Flat Despite Weak Payroll
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
Slugfation Ahead: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
Build the Right Operational Foundation, Not Just Harder Work
Sometimes the breakthrough doesn’t come from working harder, it comes from building the right operational foundation.
EU Bond Yields Converge; Ideal Moment for Euro Debt
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Hormuz Delay Boosts VLCC Rates, Atlantic Shift Looms
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong? ▶️Baltic Exchange’s MEG-China VLCC index reaches new high of $485,959 per day; MEG-Singapore VLCC index is at $507,709 per day ▶️VLCCs are loading Saudi crude at Red Sea pipeline...
Daily 3‑minute Habit Builds Massive LinkedIn Audience
Anyone can build a massive LinkedIn audience in 2026. Here's how: Publish 1 piece of writing per day. To do this, you don't have to be a prolific writer. Just use this simple 3-minute habit (it's how I never run out of ideas to...
Job Losses Surge, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.
February Jobs Miss Sharply, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
February Non-Farm Payrolls prints at -92K vs expected 58K - previously 126K Unemployment ticks up to 4.4% vs expected hold
Your Failure? No System. Build One Now.
You were lazy? No. You were busy? No. You were inconsistent? No. You just lacked a system. Now go build one.
Jeff Green Poised for Major Announcement After $150M TTD Purchase
Expecting a big tout today from the Jeff Green , CEO of $TTD , after his $150M buy of $TTD https://t.co/8KUt1JKoTZ
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Cutting Cycle Ends
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Byron Allen Buys 10.7% of Starz for $25M
Byron Allen Acquires 10.7% Stake in Starz From Steve Mnuchin’s Investment Firm for $25 Million https://t.co/uuDK84OBQW via @variety
Iran's Threat to Oil Tankers Could Trigger Market Crash
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
Talent‑First Strategy Powers Decades of Private‑Equity Returns
I started preparing for a research episode on a top private equity firm ($3B+ in AUM), and here are some of the notes I’ve taken so far: >Talent drives returns. >Their model is driven by the search for outlier investment talent. >Most of...
War Fuels Market Turmoil, Dollar Nears New High vs Yen
The War Continues to Roil the Markets: The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen,...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Cut Toxic Envious Friends; Small Circles Fuel Success
The saddest thing about success is realizing how few people actually wanted to see you succeed. They smiled to your face but secretly hoped you’d fail. Learn to recognize quiet envy. Cut those people from your life. Small circles create...
Google's AI Shift Redefines SEO: Fewer Links, New Landing Pages
SEO Video recap covering Google volatility, AI Mode recipe links and cards, ChatGPT search with fewer links and AI-generated search landing pages to take over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTXftNIRC-M Sponsored by BruceClay
Job Applications Now Demand Absurd Personal Data Overload
This might be the most obnoxious job application I’ve seen in a while. Slide deck. Personality ratings. Grades from high school and college. Your current life goals. Your podcast list. Just. To. Apply. I’m surprised they didn’t ask for your Spotify Wrapped and a reference from...
Ask Three Questions Before Building or Using APIs
A client messaged me frustrated last month. They'd spent 3 months building something from scratch... that an API could have handled in a week. I've seen the opposite too. Teams so dependent on third-party APIs that one pricing change broke their entire business model. Both...
Dow Plunges as Supply Chain Enters Cardiac Arrest
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
S&P Holds Support; Jobs Data Could Shift Momentum
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Google Unveils Hidden Workspace CLI for AI Integration
"Greasing the wheels for OpenClaw users". Also includes provisions for MCP integrations -> Google has quietly released an unsupported Workspace CLI, making it easier for agentic AI tools to access Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Docs, and other apps "The Google Workspace CLI...
Most Sites Don't Need Link Disavow, but some Do
Google's @johnmu says most sites don't need to disavow links but that is not all sites https://t.co/cliyEKeuoM https://t.co/Bsc0HcEkY2
Inelastic Demand Fuels Strong Futures; Grains, Energy Steady
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
German Right‑wing Group Axel Springer Acquires UK Telegraph
The German Murdoch (no longer with New York right-winger Dovod Efune) buys the Telegraph. Expect it to invade America alongside Springer's Politico & Business Insider. Just what we need: more right-wing media. Axel Springer buys Telegraph in £575m deal https://t.co/T3uAE3VSvY
Lighter Operations Empower Women Leaders to Thrive
It’s InternationalWomenDay, and I’ve been thinking about the weight many women in business carry. On paper, our work at OBM Associates is operational - systems, teams, strategy. But what actually happens is deeper. When the operational weight lifts, founders change. They stop firefighting and...
Google LSA Won’t Credit Existing Customer Calls as Leads
Google Local Service Ads won't credit advertiser for an existing customer call, which was not a lead https://t.co/tQs1kiXrYl via @AnthonyHigman https://t.co/ahAoxVvwju
Leading Indicators Signal NFP Beat, Live Trade at 8:10
NFP Surprise? The data certainly says so. Here are the "leading indicators" for the US jobs report that I follow and it overwhelmingly calls for a beat We'll be trading it live with you at 8:10AM ET Join us on X or...
Commodities Undervalued, Yet Crude Drop Could Trigger Market Risk‑Off
Have been saying for a while that commodities have been way under estimating upside potential(ag in particular) what a little wall street money could do to prices. However, if crude causes the equities to crater it can become “risk off”...
Credentials Open Doors; Personality Lands the Job
Your credentials got you in the room. They were never going to get you the job. Everyone in the final round has credentials. Stop leading with credentials. Your credentials are table stakes, not a differentiator. The interview starts where the resume...
Dunkin's Parent IPO Beats SpaceX and OpenAI
The year's most important IPO isn't for SpaceX or OpenAI. It would be for the parent company of Dunkin' (do I need SpaceX or OpenAI every day? nope. but my iced coffee is a nonnegotiable) https://t.co/6kXbsBReYh
Real Deal Structures Hide in Everyday Business Stories
I Remember years ago I read an article most readers would skim past. It wasn’t about investing. It wasn’t about finance. It was a local business dispute. But buried inside was a real-world deal structure.
MiniMed IPO Misses Expectations, Priced at $20
Oof. Only IPO of the week falls way short of expectations. MiniMed priced at $20 per share, versus $25-$28 range.
AI Hiring Must Expand Opportunities, Not Reinforce Bias
Law firm recruiters: AI in hiring should open doors, not quietly close them. If a model learns from your firm’s history, it will reproduce your firm’s history. Humans still need to own the decision. #LegalRecruiting #LegalTech #AI https://t.co/GNkRwGexTH
Axel Springer Snags Telegraph, Undermines RedBird‑IMI Deal
SCOOP: AXEL Springer to buy Telegraph, gate crashing an earlier deal RedBird IMI had with the Daily Mail. With dream team @DanielThomasLDN @ArashMassoudi https://t.co/JXU4G9iMuj
Middle Management: The Hidden Glue Companies Lose
#TimTalk - Many organisations “lean out” by removing middle layers. What is the cost to a company when they remove this “middle” glue? with Gary Cookson https://t.co/fW8twRPAgo via @DLAIgnite #SocialSelling #DigitalSelling #Sales #SalesLeader #Leadership #Culture #Management #HumanResources #HR
FedEx Resumes Middle East Service, Transit Times Extended
FedEx service alert - FedEx has resumed pickup and delivery services across the Middle East, where it is safe to do so and in line with local guidance. Customers shipping to or from the region will experience extended...
Euro‑area Growth Revised Down From Year‑end Estimate
The euro-area economy expanded less than initially reported at the end of last year https://t.co/flsqVlKh6v via @jrandow https://t.co/OCSdYYfIil
Oil Climbs Past $84, Stocks Hold Pending Jobs
WTI crude oil yodeling higher.. > $84 But stocks are OK with that... for now... payrolls & Jan retail sales on tap... @teconomics https://t.co/jopqYDfXo3
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi