US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters who have regularly been the cause of supply disruptions in recent generations. Russia would remain the only adversarial oil power with significant sway, and its clout would be diminished. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has halted. But the strait technically remains open, and Iran's ability to close it will likely diminish as the U.S. destroys its navy and missile batteries. Trump may conceivably let the regime stay in place if it meets his original conditions: an end to nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile development, and a halt to support for proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The regime may conceivably see that as a less-bad option than a continuing air war and threat of domestic revolt. Agreement could pave the way for an end to sanctions. In the long term, new supply could be significant. Iran's proven reserves were the fourth-highest in the world in 2020, behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada, according to the Energy Institute. Before the 1979 revolution, it produced 5 million to 6 million barrels a day. Its combined output with Venezuela equaled Saudi output.
AI Marketing Is Reactive; Brands Need Proactive Awareness
There is still a big brand marketing gap in the industry and the massive push to use AI isn't solving it. Most of what's being done to attract business with AI right now is reactive marketing - showing up in...
Never Let Claude Manage Production Infra without Humans
Unless you're Pieter Levels, do NOT RUN CLAUDE on your production system or infrastructure. It's a very charismatic toddler when it comes to understanding business consequences. It WILL do something completely disastrous eventually. Human in the loop for all infra work. ALWAYS.
CEOs Must Delegate to Avoid Micromanaging Trivial Decisions
As the CEO, if you’re constantly answering trivial questions, making little decisions, you have a problem of your own making. Is it because you're not allowing others to decide? They think they're not empowered? It's a bad sign and you have to...
Reasonable Accommodations Are Simple—Managers Overreact Unnecessarily
Most reasonable accommodations are free and easy to implement. So why do managers act like the sky is falling when they get a request? Well, let's talk about it!
Sell During Strong Growth, Not Market Uncertainty
We spend a lot of time at Vista Point walking founders through the considerations around WHEN to pursue a liquidity event. While external factors like the state of your vertical market are certainly important to consider, the first and foremost...
Jobs Report Soft, Yet Income Growth Holds Steady
A lot of hyperbolic takes on the jobs report. It was a soft (bad) report. On both surveys. Both were better in Jan There are reasons for data volatility that need more smoothing now. Labor income growth stable around 4.5% Prime...
Recognizing Discount Window Could Slash Reserve Demand by $1T
"If the liquidity requirement framework were revised to recognize banks’ capacity to borrow from the discount window, reserve demand could fall by a lot, perhaps about $1 trillion." https://t.co/kkmZqcwLGH
GenAI Makes CI/CD Intent‑aware with Auto‑remediation Scores
GenAI-enhanced CI/CD and IaC can move from static rules to intent-aware flows. Auto-generate recommended actions on failures, attach risk/accuracy scores, and let devops decide which branches auto-remediate vs. require human approval. #AI #DevOps https://t.co/vBzM21vM14
Young Entrepreneur Risks $1.5M Loan, Builds 51k‑sq‑ft Storage
In 2016 we broke ground on our first self storage development. I had just turned 27 and had personally guaranteed a $1.5 million loan to make this happen. We put in about $500k of our own cash (from a small business we...
Revenue Architecture Beats Tactics for Predictable SaaS Growth
Most SaaS companies try to fix growth problems with tactics. More leads. More tools. More sales hires. But predictable revenue depends on something deeper: Revenue Architecture. The system connecting ICP, positioning, pricing, pipeline, and sales. I explain the framework here → https://t.co/y9I8gazKsu
Master Offer Testing to Scale Beyond Seven Figures
Scaling your brand past 7 figures in revenue requires mastering offer testing. Retweet and Comment "OFFER" and I'll send you my new guide for how to structure and properly test offers. *** Must be following for me to DM ***...
Master Workplace Politics and Influence Without Permission
Stoked to bring @jesseddy live to teach how to navigate politics, influence decisions, and showcase your value without waiting for permission. RSVP @ https://t.co/pAN8O82Upl
Fed Stuck as Jobs Slip and Inflation Rises
In an interview with @nytimes, @Austan_Goolsbee describes February's jobs report as a "tough" one, although he stressed the importance of not overreacting to one month of data. He conceded that the combination of a weakening labor market and higher inflation risks...
Payroll Growth Stalls, Unemployment Ticks up, Breakeven Remains Marginal
Over the last 6 months, payroll employment growth has averaged -1K/month while the unemployment rate has risen +0.12pp. Consistent with the idea that we're at a shallow but still slightly-positive breakeven on the NFP side, which we're obviously not clearing over...
Skip VP Hires Until $10M ARR, Stay Hands‑on
If you're under $10M ARR and you have a VP of anything, that’s a mistake. > You hire a VP of Sales > Now you need a VP of Marketing > Now you need a VP of Product Suddenly, you're managing executives instead of...
Servier's $2.5B DAWN Deal Closes Ojemda Saga
$DAWN acquisition by Servier for $2.5bn is quite the ending for Ojemda. Who remembers this RAF inhibitor's bizarre & convoluted history? $BIIB $TAK https://t.co/uD5drO9ymr
Private Credit Redemptions Stay Under 5% Cap Amid Bear Market
Despite the bear market in private credit, negative press, and poor performance of some BlackRock funds, the quarterly redemption requests for its non-traded BDC came in below the 5% cap. https://t.co/36ABXJ1FCK
VIX Mock Rally Lifts
$VIX Mock cheer for COR1M, up from the dead/all time lows during earnings season to last spring and last Nov levels https://t.co/Ykw6arRCk3
Google Ads Customer Match Uploads Change April 1, API Breaks
Google Ads customer match data uploads changing April 1st - it won't work in the normal Google Ads API https://t.co/rKOAaBt49Q https://t.co/pOAyxWy3bX
Cyclical Job Loss Spreads to Education and Health
Over the last 12 months basically every cyclical industry but construction and leisure/hospitality has negative job growth. The new news today is the negative Education/Health, but the cyclical economy has been weak for a long time. https://t.co/TdUz4KvRxm
Current Monetary Policy Fails; Need Easier
If only there were a monetary policy regime that made it easier for central banks to navigate such trying times… oh wait https://t.co/XA5Pw2bVIi (1/2)
Watch Fed Rate‑Cut Signals After NFP Miss
A fundamental thread to keep an eye on after the NFPs miss: the implied FOMC rate cuts through Fed Funds futures overlaid with the $DXY Dollar index. CPI and PCE next week. FOMC rate decision the Wednesday after next https://t.co/Rslg81c0CC
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
Sales Leaders Must Coach in Real Time, Not Just Track
One thing Jason Williams and I talked about on the podcast is something a lot of sales leaders avoid. Getting in the field with your reps. Listening to their calls. Watching how they handle conversations. Coaching them in real time. It’s uncomfortable. It takes time....
NFP Shows Sharp Industry Swings; Health Care Near Zero
NFP swings by industry between Feb 2026 & prior 12M average. Couple of notes: 1. Even adj for Kaiser strike, health care was near-0 in Feb, a large swing down from its prior +36K/M average. 2. Big down swings in Leisure &...
Compass Merger Triggers 110 Layoffs; Anywhere HQ Available
If you work for #Anywhere in #MadisonNJ, you might want to polish up your resume. Merger w/#Compass costs 110 jobs at combined #brokerage giant. 270KSF Anywhere HQ up for lease. #realestate #MandA #mortgage #NJ #layoffs #JLL #RobertReffkin https://t.co/4SsKTtsrg2
Start at the Funnel Bottom for Rapid Pipeline Results
If paid media is set up correctly, you should start seeing a qualified pipeline within 30–45 days. Here's how we achieve that for our clients: Many B2B teams end up running paid media backwards. They start with awareness, build an...
Offshoring Drug Discovery Could Create Massive US Trade Deficit
Jake puts it crisply: >If discovery and early development move abroad, the nation risks locking in a massive trade imbalance: Foreign countries develop the drugs, and Americans pay the bills.
Feb US Jobs Miss Marks Largest Downside Since 2021
US #NFPs dropped in February by -92K vs +70K expected and +126K added in January. This was the biggest downside 'surprise' (-162K) since the pandemic shutdown (specifically Aug 2021) https://t.co/HgS3Y8EA9t
Google Warns Disavow Tool Is More Harmful than Helpful
From Barry: "As a reminder, John Mueller of Google often says that disavowing links is a waste of time. Heck, like Bing, Google may remove the disavow tool at some point. In fact, Google said the disavow tools hurts many...
Iran-Israel Clash May Trigger Worldwide Power Showdown
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
Stack Collapse Will Transform Low‑Margin Service Industries
agree with this thesis - collapsing stack (of talent, process, and economics) in almost absurd ways in a specific vertical will birth the next generation leaders in services. these traditionally people-intensive, slow, low margin businesses will look entirely different
Stagflation Signals Emerge as Oil Rises, Jobs Push Cuts
At a time when markets are pushing back Fed cut odds because of the oil spike, seeing jobs data that demands rate cuts leaves everyone unhappy. Stagflation, directionally. Not there yet but pointing that way.
Context Is the iPhone Moment for GTM Success
A couple weeks ago @ParthGujare_ Senior Product Manager at Ramp posted about their internal revenue stack and what they had built for it. “A customer data platform “processes millions of records, internal, external, crm data daily”, A unified action layer with...
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Iran Could Spark Global Oil Crisis via Hormuz
I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a big chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to cause a global crisis. Thanks to @SoumayaKeynes for having me on...
Young, Black, Hispanic, Asian Americans Face Rising Unemployment
Important point: February was a dismal jobs report. But look closer at who is suffering the most in this frozen job market... Young people African Americans Hispanic Americans Asian Americans These are the groups that have had the biggest uptick in unemployment rates. https://t.co/zszvNZ2Xv3
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
Cattle Prices Surge Ahead of Other Commodities Amid Inflation
So do the cattle look at the inflationary trade taking place and go higher or do they look at the equities and the consumer being hurt by higher energy products and a slowing economy possibly and come under pressure....
February Sees Job Losses Across Nearly All Sectors
Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs
February Jobs Data Deepens Fed Split over Rates
February's jobs report will certainly stoke divisions at the Fed. Some officials are highly concerned about the health of the labor market and willing to cut rates to support it. Others seem more attuned to the risk posed by inflation,...
Current Curve Rerating Signals Faster Resolution Than 2022
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
Risk‑off Sentiment Keeps Dollar Flat Despite Weak Payroll
If things were normal, the Dollar should be falling sharply right now. We just got a -1.9 standard deviation surprise on payrolls, which should be weighing on USD. But nothing about today is normal. We're in a massive risk-off and...
Slugfation Ahead: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
Build the Right Operational Foundation, Not Just Harder Work
Sometimes the breakthrough doesn’t come from working harder, it comes from building the right operational foundation.
EU Bond Yields Converge; Ideal Moment for Euro Debt
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Hormuz Delay Boosts VLCC Rates, Atlantic Shift Looms
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong? ▶️Baltic Exchange’s MEG-China VLCC index reaches new high of $485,959 per day; MEG-Singapore VLCC index is at $507,709 per day ▶️VLCCs are loading Saudi crude at Red Sea pipeline...
Daily 3‑minute Habit Builds Massive LinkedIn Audience
Anyone can build a massive LinkedIn audience in 2026. Here's how: Publish 1 piece of writing per day. To do this, you don't have to be a prolific writer. Just use this simple 3-minute habit (it's how I never run out of ideas to...
Job Losses Surge, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.