Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about for weeks - and why I warned our Nov value rotation plays would peter out end of Feb & last week's call for right tail rotation in software would catch a bounce... and not to outstay our visit in either. USD, OIL & YIELDS are about to form a wrecking ball on markets unless we get policy intervention.
No Fixed Start: Toggle Choices Until Five Align
Zach, I really appreciate the effort and the thinking you have done. But I am afraid I don't agree with the prescription. For starters, I don't argue that you should start at the upper left and go down. It is...
Political Risk Soars: Trim Govt Comms Supplier Exposure
Macro: political risk rises after $220M DHS ad probe. Key: high-profile Noem campaign, bipartisan scrutiny. Risks: reputational, budget cuts. Trade insight: trim exposure to govt comms suppliers. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Craig Newmark Resisted $11B Temptation, Chose Principle over Profit
@craignewmark walked away from an est. $11B by not fully monetizing Craigslist. His Sunday School teachers taught him to "know when enough is enough." The pressure Craig fought is “financial gravity,” the invisible force that pulls companies to extract every possible dollar.
Merger News Drives Entertainment Earnings Conversation
What’s News in Earnings: Merger News Dominates the Entertainment Business -- @benfritz and I discuss quarterly results and challenges ahead. https://t.co/sZopc3Z4Bf
Rigid European Labor Markets Hinder Demand Shock Response
Why are Europe’s rigid labor markets so bad? They turn a flow into a stock, which generates not great reactions to demand shocks. https://t.co/TqgDgtU9nj
Iran War Exposes Fossil Fuel’s Hidden Global Costs
On The Climate Brink, my latest post is on what the war in Iran tells us about the hidden costs of fossil fuels https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-war-in-iran-shows-us-another
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
When Your Business Feels Like a Prison
Your business is a prison if: You make all the decisions. You can't take breaks. You're always online.
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
New Contact Module Centralizes Team Replies and Client Context
Contact forms can be tricky if you want to share the received emails with your team: Who replied, what's the history, who is this client? That's why we've added the "Contact" module in @feedbask_com Now, it’s easy to know if a team...
Firms Use Repo‑Like Loans to Hide Debt
“The firms are using repo-like loans from one particular investment bank to mask debt, the letter says.” https://t.co/YLQH5cPi6f
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
OpenClaw Setup Boosted Views From 358 to 85K
Building Live: The OpenClaw Setup That Took My Articles from 358 to 85,000+ Views https://t.co/2AfO60Gvta
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
AI Founders Are a Tiny Minority—Run Past the Rest
I'm really excited for young founders right now. If you're building with AI today, you're the yellow and red on this chart. Tiny sliver of the population. The green and the gray are the 84% of people who have never touched...
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Incumbents Must Pursue Big AI Acquisitions to Stay Competitive
New @ThePeelPod with @chetanp We talk Manus, the history + future of software, why incumbents should make big AI acquisitions, why investors are begging for AI companies to go public, and inside @Benchmark’s latest investing strategy. Thanks @Numeral and @FlexSuperApp for sponsoring...
Random Integration Questions Reveal Product Misunderstanding
You know your prospect doesn’t understand your product when they ask if it integrates with a random tool. “Do you all integrate with MailChimp?” Um… what did you have in mind…
CashApp's Credit Risk Management Highlights Intentional Crime Controls Lapses
Still thinking about @AlexH_Johnson & my pod convo about @CashApp's plan to sell its internal credit scores to third parties That the company seems to be able to manage *credit risk* reasonably effectively makes its financial crime control failures look even...
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
No‑code AI Agents Abstract Engineering, Not Eliminate It
🚫 “No-code AI agents” is not about skipping engineering. ✅ It’s about abstracting it. This visual captures a critical shift: AI agents are becoming products assembled from capabilities, not systems engineered from scratch. Here’s the executive breakdown 👇 1️⃣ Start...
Bootstrapped SaaS: Profit First Month via Community Outreach
First customer: $200/month plan. Infrastructure bill: $50. Profitable in month one. Found by answering questions on Stack Overflow, GitHub, and Reddit. Joel Griffith bootstrapped Browserless to nearly $4M ARR. https://t.co/hPZB3qTqRL
Turn AI Overload Into Structured Productivity
You can now generate 10x the ideas. 10x the drafts. 10x the tasks. But you still have 24 hours. This workshop teaches you how to filter, prioritise, and prevent AI-generated work bloat from hijacking your week. Speed without structure equals stress. Build structure now. https://t.co/gVNd09zf1B
From $1 Shoe Salesman to Nation's 2nd Largest Apartment Owner
The story of Morgan Properties is one of those "only in America" stories -- started by a shoe salesman in 1985 putting down $1 to buy 3 suburban Philly apartment properties, and growing it into the nation's 2nd largest apartment...
From Zero to $1B in 3.5 Years: Lux‑Backed Success
From ZERO to $1B in 3.5 years. We wrote their first check at Lux… Here’s how they did it.
High Broker Fees Signal a Business Acquisition Attempt
If a broker charges rates in line with Realtors, say 5 or 6% then they likely are trying to ‘buy business.’- How to Sell my own Business https://t.co/l2EObkfURN https://t.co/Jq7DIDeNGv
Strait Closure Ripple Effects Threaten Sulphur, Copper, Global Markets
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...
Learning Co‑Investing Secrets by Watching Benchmark’s Five Partners
In 1999-2000 Craig McCaw asked me to spend a lot of time working in the Benchmark offices on Sand Hill Road to find areas where co-investment was possible. I never learned so much, as Yogi Berra famously said, "just by...
TNT Secures Exclusive U.S. FIBA Rights Amid Merger Uncertainty
This is exactly the type of deal I discuss in today's newsletter ... will a Paramount/WBD merged company do these smaller sports rights deals anymore? The calculus will definitely change for TNT ... https://t.co/DvKzUkqcDr
Matt Anderson Poised for Smooth NASA Deputy Confirmation
NASA may soon get a deputy administrator. Matt Anderson is before a Senate committee today. Barring surprises his confirmation in the coming weeks should be non-controversial.
Credit‑Card Trials Double Revenue Efficiency vs Freemium
If 1,000 people land on your website… How much revenue do you actually generate? Kyle Poyar , ChartMogul and ProductLed analyzed 200 SaaS & AI companies for our 2026 Funnel Report. Here’s what happens with 1,000 visitors: Freemium 1,000 visitors...
Hire as Fast as You Train, or Fail
Most startups fail at hiring, not product. They scale headcount faster than they scale training. Lean teams stay small, ship MVPs, track metrics, and fix root issues with Five Whys before adding people. Amazon runs teams small enough to feed with two pizzas...
Self‑advocacy at Work Turns Promotions Into Popularity Contests
If the only way to get promoted at your company is to "advocate for yourself," congrats, you just built a popularity contest. 💅🏻
War in Iran and Inflation Push Mortgage Rates Near 6%
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
Russia Shifts Gas to China, Threatens Europe Supply
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
Hollywood Execs Prioritize Cost Cuts over Creative Talent
After Hollywood turned on David Zaslav for being too much of a bean counter/financier, I’m sure The Town will appreciate David Ellison’s answer to being asked how many layoffs are coming w/ merging w/ WBD: “We absolutely need to rationalize the...
Vote for DR80+ Club T‑Shirt Design
We're bringing back the @Ahrefs DR80+ Club. 👑 ...and we need your vote for the best t-shirt design. *Why does DR80+ matter?* DR (Domain Rating) is Ahrefs' metric for a website's link popularity. Essentially, how many high-quality sites are linking to it. This metric...
Pitch UX as Risk Reduction, Not Just Experience
I was talking with a designer at a large heritage organization recently. He's the only UX person on the team, and he's been struggling with something I see all the time: getting product owners and business analysts to see the...
Adopt the Resisted Shift to Boost Close Rates
If you feel like you’re working harder than ever but your close rate isn’t reflecting it, this one’s for you. There’s a simple shift that can completely change your sales results — and most salespeople resist it. https://t.co/5Fwvx5SvKs
Iran War Sends Global Ripples Through Container Shipping
The impact of the Iran war on container shipping is reaching well beyond the Persian Gulf, creating ripple effects upstream at ports around the world. 1/ 🧵
Fed Rate‑cut Odds Dip as ECB Hike Odds Surge
Everyone is talking about ECB rate hike odds by Dec spiking to 60% from 20% BUT Fed Fund futures show less chance of 25bp cut in June than a week ago (before the Iran strikes) When do you think the Federal Reserve...
Unlock AI Search Visibility with My New Video
If you found my latest blog post about AEO/GEO vs SEO interesting, you should check out the companion YouTube video I just published. I cover everything in detail and provide some additional context. My video covers all of the information...
Customers Can't Define Your Next Big Feature
Hot take that's actually not that hot: Your customers can’t tell you what to build. I know. You've been collecting feature requests. You've got a Notion doc or a Monday board full of them. You send surveys. You read every...
AI Builds Entire Startup Solo in One Night
Holy shit... I built an entire startup last night in one session. No team. No developers. No investors. Just me, a dinner idea, and Spine AI. Here's the full breakdown: 👇 The idea hit at dinner: What if you typed "show me all customers who...
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Diesel Costs Rise $0.40/gal, Adding $0.06 per Mile
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
5 Hidden Habits Blocking Mid‑Level Designers’ Promotion
I've mentored over 500 designers at this point. Here are the top 5 common patterns that quietly stall growth from mid → senior level design positions. Some may surprise you.
New Google AI Mode Features Boost SEO and Customization
It’s New 3/5: Google AI Mode recipe cards and links covered by @gregfinn, @mordyoberstein on AI Overview drop downs, @TheMarketingAnu on build to order attributes and I wrap with JavaScript SEO accessibility https://t.co/Ab4n3Z0rKc
Four Indicators Hint Upside Surprise on US Jobs
EVERYONE'S BEARISH ON NFP - THEY MIGHT BE WRONG ⚠️4 leading indicators say the US jobs number could surprise to upside Meanwhile $NQ $ES are bleeding and $CL is surging. Here's my breakdown of it all👇 https://t.co/tPjJsIC76Y