Supply Chain Turmoil Continues: Tariff Wave Drives Uncertainty
Being a Demand Planner, I am trained to notice patterns, seasonality and cycles. To notice the root cause of those disrupting signals and what causes them, so I can get my forecasting model right and predict future events. Since January 20, 2025, our supply chains have been more VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous), making it harder to predict what comes next. But I have a theory that these disruptions are not stopping anytime soon. To understand that there is a timeline of major events in 2025 that have disrupted the global supply chain, which are: - 1 Feb 2025 — U.S. Trade War Begins - 4 Feb 2025 — China Tariff Hike - 10 Feb 2025 — China Retaliates - 12 Mar 2025 — Global Metals Tariffs - 27 Mar 2025 — Auto Sector Shock - 2 Apr 2025 — “Liberation Day” Global Tariff + Market Crash + 90-Day Pause - 9 Apr 2025 — Tariff Spiral (U.S.–China Peak Rates) - 4 Jun 2025 — Metals Tariffs Doubled - Jun 2025 — Middle East Escalation (Oil Spike) - Jul 2025 — Copper Tariff + Grasberg Output Shock - 7 Aug 2025 — Reciprocal Tariffs Go Live - 27 Aug 2025 — Secondary Tariffs on India - 1 Oct 2025 — Industrial & Pharma Squeeze - 9 Nov 2025 — Greenland Strategy Emerges (Rare Earth Focus) 2026 Supply Chain Disruption Timeline - 17 Jan 2026 — Greenland Tariff Ultimatum - 21 Jan 2026 — Davos De-escalation (Tariffs Suspended) - 24 Feb 2026 — 10% Global Tariffs Implemented + De Minimis Suspension Maintained - 17 Feb 2026 — Middle East Tension (Oil Surge) - 27 Feb 2026 - Middle East Tension Escalated, resulting in Dubai airport being closed for all flights What impacted me more personally is what happened today. I lived in Dubai for 6 years. I had a house. I have many friends. My brother and sister, and their families, live there. Dubai, which is proud to be the safest place to live and do business, is now living in fear. My worry is that every 2nd month, there is a major event which results in these disruptions, making the world and supply chain more VUCA What is the root cause? I have stated the timeline here... Do you think these disruptions will stop? And unfortunately, may I dare to predict, these disruptions will last until the end of 2028. Be safe. #disruptions #supplychainrisk #Trending
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Avoid 10 Pitfalls to Rescue Your Strategy Execution
Your strategy execution is failing: here is why- https://t.co/elZ3WF6N7v Fix it in 2026. Easy if you avoid these 10 pitfalls.
China’s AI Tech Rotation Amid Modest Growth Forecast
NPC signals 4.5–5% growth, tech rotation to AI specialists and ~1.5tn CNY ultra‑long bonds to fund infra; housing risks and policy disappointment loom. Trade: buy selective China AI-tech names for cyclical catalyst exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Responsible AI Starts with Zero‑Trust, Encrypted Data Governance
You can't have responsible AI without responsible data. Classify AI data, extend zero trust, encrypt in use, and spell out non-negotiable governance policies from day one. #AISecurity #DataGovernance https://t.co/aiB5P99ido
Berkshire's Capital Allocation: Focus, Integrity, and Discipline
Berkshire’s capital allocation principles and strategy: Invest in businesses that we thoroughly understand, with durable advantages and long-term economic prospects; Partner with high integrity leaders who understand their customers and act like owners; Avoid businesses that undermine the fabric of society or...
China Aims 5% Growth; Consumption, Innovation to Drive 2026
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
Observability, Control Flow, Interruption: Key to Safe Agent Orchestration
Terrific thread on agent orchestration architectures. "If an agent started making confident but wrong decisions, how many actions would execute before I could stop it?" The three magic words are "observability", "control flow ownership", and "interruption".
Factory Construction Outspends Data Centers Fivefold
Construction Spending on Data Centers, Factories, Powerplants, and Office Buildings: Boom, Bust, and in Between. Despite the hoopla about data centers, spending on factory construction was five times larger https://t.co/rBJr9DUgSX https://t.co/OyvbCGaHrk
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Supply Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Publishers Stagger Writer Signings and Panels at Conventions
If you squint some publishers do a version of this when they send 3-4 of their writers to Comic Con or another major trade event (I've done this with Del Rey) and they're signing at the booth at different times...
Trump's War Risks Global Energy Market Instability
How Trump’s War Could Destabilize the Global Energy Market #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5Rh1Ysyc2w https://t.co/XMEM6rLIOY
Copper Shortage Imminent: Prices Set to Hit $15k
https://t.co/U4SkF1hAbc @UBS boosting its copper price target is just the latest confirmation of what we’ve been warning about for years: the world is flying head-first into a structural copper shortage. A projected $15,000/tonne copper price by 2027… and a half-million-tonne supply deficit...
Demand Rises, Inventory Falls Amid Mortgage Rate Tension
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Jeff Sachs: US Has Just Stepped Into Trouble over Iran
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
Efficiency Drives Growth in the Post‑SaaS Era
Efficiency is the New Growth: Navigating the Post-SaaS-pocalypse by @Timothy_Hughes https://t.co/7x2TCrXKsm @DLAIgnite #SocialSelling #DigitalSelling #Sales #Marketing #MarketingStrategy #Strategy #Leadership #ArtificialIntelligence #Innovation #Technology #Tech #TechNews #SaaS #Cloud #CloudComputing
West's Import Dependence Stems From Financial‑First Economy
Visionary investor @ctindale takes on THE big question: How did America and the West become so dependent on imports for almost everything we use? Tindale says the Western focus on the financial economy over the material economy has led to a...
Optimize Every Signup Step to Prevent Drop‑offs
Every step in your signup flow is a chance to lose someone. This Skill tightens the whole thing. https://t.co/9CH95T4Rfb
Iran Conflict Sparks Oil Surge and Market Turbulence
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Upcoming Trade Gains Interest per Jan 13 Macro Memo
Here’s what we wrote in our last macro memo on January 13th, should become a much more interesting trade over the coming weeks: https://t.co/iqiIN2DGsB
Balance AI KPIs and Vision for True Literacy
RT What is AI literacy? "AI literacy requires a dual focus on AI. What KPIs should teams experimenting with AI focus on that deliver ROI, and whats the longer-term AI vision?" #AI #CHRO #CIO @Star_CIO https://t.co/aiB5P99ido
Success Comes From Speed, Risk, and Hard Work
Most successful people I've met aren't that smart. They move fast, they take risk, they work a lot. That's it.
Hormuz Closure After US‑Israel Strike Sends Markets Tumbling
🚨 OPERATION EPIC FURY — Feb 28, 2026 US and Israel launched a massive military campaign against Iran at 1:15 AM ET. Regime change is the stated goal. Iran retaliated, striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE. US officials say...
Digital Success Hinges on Bold Change, Not Vendors
The future belongs to leaders willing to take smart risks, challenge legacy processes, and deploy technology the way customers want it used. Digital success isn’t about the vendor. It’s about the will to change. https://t.co/oqVqr3G6ac
Weak Dollar Often Worsens, Not Fixes, Trade Deficit
A Weak Dollar Won’t Fix the Trade Deficit There’s a popular belief that a weaker dollar will reduce the U.S. trade deficit by boosting exports and reducing imports. In the short term, the opposite often happens. When the dollar falls, imports immediately become...
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Geopolitical Crises Cause Short-Term Pain, 5% Median Rebound.
Here's a list of major geopolitical events since WWII. Up a median of 5% six months later. All of them felt really bad at the time. https://t.co/Jb3QXL0L05
Introducing the Gwenchmarks Manifesto: Learn Benchmark Mastery
Folks asked me "what's your plan for gwenchmarks"? At first, it was a joke. But... teaching people how to plan, execute and read benchmarks is a good goal. So I wrote The Gwenchmarks Manifesto as a start. Still a bit...
Toxic Culture Undermines Confidence Before Challenging Leaders
A toxic culture will make you question your confidence before it ever questions its leadership.
Software Won’t Help without a Defined ICP and Messaging
When you fire up the sales engagement software but still don’t know your ICP or messaging. https://t.co/E0HuKLF0D7
Most Independent Docs Prefer S‑Corp, Yet Shouldn’t
The mass majority of physicians who are doing independent work think they should be an S-corp. The mass majority of physicians who are doing independent work should not be S-corps. #TaxTwitter
Replace Functionality One‑for‑one Before Adding Features
Migrating systems? Focus on replacing existing functionality one-for-one before adding new features. This phased approach ensures a smoother transition and allows for innovation later. #TechMigration #SystemUpgrade https://t.co/hQN18iMJ1F
Tech Alone Won’t Drive AI; Practices Must Evolve
RT I compare this genAI moment to early web and cloud eraswhen transformation only happened after we changed practices (agile, DevOps, design thinking), not just technology. Same story, new stakes. #CIO #AI #DigitalTransformation @Star_CIO https://t.co/xfrVmpSIJN
Avoid Single-Metric Focus: It Creates Blind Spots
Staying too focused on one metric creates blind spots. While it’s not necessarily a “balance” -- because they’re not equally important -- there isn’t “one metric to rule them all.” https://t.co/IwJzk6iCpu
Entry-Level Tech Jobs Decline; Upskill with AI Apprenticeships
Stanford, IDC, and Gartner are all signaling the same thing: entry-level tech jobs are shrinking and expectations are rising. See how Digital Trailblazers can respond with apprenticeships, reskilling, and AI-first delivery. #AI #CIO #CHRO https://t.co/O0K0QkTUyt
Strait of Hormuz Status Threatens Shipping and Consumers
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? ▶️Danger to Shipping ▶️US and UK Waring ▶️Impact for Consumers ▶️Other Factors Impacting Global Tanker Market ▶️Is US Sealift & Afloat Prepositioning Moving? Video: https://t.co/SgdGJdWaSD https://t.co/Cvj3mRaiq7
Bank Credit Surge Signals Inflation Pressure Ahead
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
IRGC Threatens Hormuz Closure, Risking Oil Price Surge
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly warned that no vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade of the channel, which carries ~20% of global oil, threatens massive energy price spikes and severe, immediate disruptions...
Iranian Drone Strike Hits Near Dubai's Burj Khalifa, Evacuations Ordered
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
CNN Faces Moral Test Under MAGA‑Friendly Leadership
Will anyone at CNN take a principled stand as David Ellison reshapes the network to be more MAGA friendly? Or will everyone just go along with the new direction? Watch the full episode of Power Lines on YouTube: https://youtu.be/nWEG5jUrP2Q?si=H_0XcKiJMFeLe3fe
Energy Fundamentals Outweigh Geopolitics as US Capex Plummets
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
One Year of Hyperscaler Capex Stuns With Massive Scale
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
Positive Psychology Culture Delivers Tangible HR Outcomes
#PositivePsychology Driven Culture: Real-World Results @ABPsychologists https://t.co/JubHxUwZ3H #HCM #HRM #HumanResources #HRTech #CHRO #CPO #Hiring #Recruitment #PeopleManagement #Culture #Change #FutureofHR #HRCurator
10‑Year Yield Falls 34bps; Rate Cut Looms?
10yr yield down 34bps in less than 4 weeks @stockcharts Will rates drop on Monday? #Iran https://t.co/0jT2TsHb42
18 Industries Set to Generate $48T by 2040
Where will the next wave of global growth come from? 🌊 @McKinsey_MGI breaks down the 18 industries, from AI to healthcare, set to drive up to $48 trillion in revenue by 2040. These 🔟 charts visualize the future of competition: https://t.co/MURdZJwPdW...
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
Capital Comes Last: Build Board, Seller, Structure First
"You need money to buy a business." False. What you actually need: • A credible board (free to recruit) • A seller motivated to exit • A structure they say yes to • 1,000 cold calls worth of persistence Capital is the last variable. Not the first.
Agentic AI Won’t Instantly Eliminate Thousands of Jobs
Just because were getting agentic AI doesnt mean that we can release thousands of people from our workforce and make that correlation. #AI #CIO #CXOTalk https://t.co/xTvbca0YxB
US-Israel Strikes Trigger Global Market Volatility
🚨 The US and Israel just launched strikes on Iran. Tehran is firing back. Missiles hitting Gulf states. Markets open Sunday night. Oil. Gold. Nasdaq. Forex. Everything gaps. I'm going LIVE Sunday 6PM ET to break down what this means for your trades. Don't...