Narrow Positioning and Separate Budgets Beat Industry Giants
My top 5 takeaways from my chat with Gille Berteaux, Livestorm's CEO (nearly $20M ARR, 3,500 customers): 1. Expanding too broadly can kill product-market fit: After COVID, they added meetings and sales demos. Suddenly they looked like a smaller version of Zoom. Customers had no compelling reason to pick them over the incumbent. 2. Narrow positioning wins against giants: Instead of competing feature-for-feature with Zoom, they found three differentiators: European company (security), marketers only (separate budget from IT), and specific industries like banking and pharma. 3. Target the buyer who has a separate budget: By positioning as a marketing tool instead of an IT tool, they avoided budget wars with Zoom and Teams entirely. Marketers control their own spend. No IT approval needed. 4. Enterprise sales requires rebuilding the team, not retraining it: Reps who closed inbound leads couldn't cold-call 10,000-person companies. Gilles had to replace almost the entire original sales team. 5. A failed fundraise can force the right strategic shift: When Series C investors said no in 2022, they had to become profitable. That constraint pushed them toward enterprise customers on annual contracts who pay more and stick longer. Which one resonates most with you?
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
World‑class Skill Invisible without Buyer‑centric Packaging
You can be world-class and still invisible. Just ask Joshua Bell, one of the world’s top violinists... In 2007, Joshua Bell played his $3.5M Stradivarius violin for 45 minutes in a Washington, D.C. subway station. Only 7 people stopped to listen. The same...
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
TOST Q4 Margins Surge, Profit Spikes over 200%
$TOST Q4: Operating income +140% YoY, net income +216% YoY. Margins expanding across the board. Revenue came in at $1.63B, up 22% YoY. Growth moderated vs +25% last quarter, but profitability stepped up meaningfully. Gross profit grew 27% YoY with gross margin...
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
NATO Remains Vital Amid Transatlantic Trust Crisis
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
USD Firms Ahead of CPI as Euro/GBP Options Expire
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
Rising SPX Put Skew May Push VIX to 30
SPX put skew is really starting to warm up here, while ATM IV remains relatively subdued. If SPX 30) https://t.co/p9qsHp8nHk
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
AI Layoffs Risk Turning Companies Into Stranded Assets
Something worth remembering if you're trying to value the stock market right now: 👇 A corporation can only profit from human labor displacement once. If by engaging in that single cost saving to beef up your bottom line you inadvertently destroy...
Three Consecutive CPI Misses Signal Rate‑Cut Surge
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
Structure Your Talk: One Idea, Three Points, Clear Wrap
Many speakers think their audience will naturally follow their thoughts. So they ramble, and lose their point. Fix: Before speaking, answer these questions: 1. What is my central idea? 2. What three points support it? 3. What examples will clarify each point?4. How will...
Gemini Miscalculates Google’s Massive Depreciation Drag
Coming up on @thestreetpro More Tales From Nvidia: The Depreciation "Tail and Spike" Will Be Painful to Mag7 Profits (Issue #178!) * As free cash flow is plummeting... I decided to ask the AI about itself. In this case, I asked Google Gemini about...
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
Libya's Economy Lags Egypt After 2011 US Intervention
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Libya’s economy is NOWHERE CLOSE to its neighbor Egypt. Thanks to the US-led regime change operation in 2011, Libya is IN THE TANK. https://t.co/mnlulHdvko
Turn FP&A From Reactive to Predictive with AI
⚡ From forecast to action — is your FP&A team predictive or reactive? At the Digital North American FP&A Circle, leaders from Sony, Mars, High Liner Foods & Wolters Kluwer CCH Tagetik shared how they embed predictive AI into decisions: https://t.co/Gmlh8jmMgB #aiinfinance
Singapore's Car Taxes Outpace Fiji's Entire GDP
Singapore is one of the world's biggest oil-trading hubs. It also LOVES to tax cars. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/singapore-s-car-tax-revenue-now-so-high-it-exceeds-fiji-s-gdp
US Firms and Consumers Shoulder Most 2025 Tariff Burden
1/5 The New York Fed finds that "U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025." https://t.co/X3Xz2tRn1j
Trump Narrows Confusing Steel, Aluminum Tariffs Ahead of US‑EU Deal
The Trump administration is working to narrow its broad tariffs on steel and aluminum products that companies find difficult to calculate and the EU wants reined in as part of its pending trade deal with the US https://t.co/638iBN7IU0 via @jendeben...
Ecom Founders Stay Quiet, Letting Results Speak
Everyone at dinner: Let me tell you about my business idea. Ecom founders at dinner: Quiet because they're actually building and have nothing to prove. Different mindset. Different life.
Distinguish Inefficiency From Global Uncompetitiveness in EU Manufacturing
1/7 My latest piece was written for friends who are EU policymakers or advisors. In it I argue that there is a difference between an inefficient manufacturing sector and a globally uncompetitive manufacturing sector. We shouldn't conflate the two. https://t.co/qer7BAvgnc
Poland's Per‑capita GDP Eclipses Germany, Fueling Assertiveness
Poland’s GDP per capita OUTPACES Germany’s by a country mile. This growth gap is why Poland is flexing its muscles and pushing Germany around. https://t.co/78SQLlNP3o
Fintechs Must Prioritize Financial Health Over Services
#FlashbackFriday | In 2020, I argued that fintechs should stop selling financial services and start selling financial health, this wasn’t a buzzword, but a different way of thinking about the financial sector itself: https://t.co/bL1ZTqv4Uf Yesterday’s future. Progress optional. https://t.co/s7x485LBB3
ECB Still Assessing Full Effects of Euro Appreciation
ECB has yet to see full impact of euro appreciation, Kazaks says https://t.co/qqisWsfsJD via @aaroneglitis @Skolimowski https://t.co/TTDxRGmgMY
CBRT Hikes 2026 Inflation Outlook, Policy Stays Too Loose
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: In the first Inflation Report of 2026, CBRT Gov. Fatih Karahan revised the end-2026 inflation forecast from 13–19% to 15–21%. Turkey's monetary policy remains TOO LOOSE. https://t.co/EC5mR04dt6
Identify Which of Four Innovation Types You're Neglecting
Most founders talk about innovation. Few know there are 4 types: product, process, business model, and organizational. Cook Medical built new devices, GE Aviation improved manufacturing with automation, fintech startups redesigned digital banking, and Purdue accelerators reshaped how startups grow. Then move through...
Turkey's 30% Inflation Threatens Global TV Drama Boom
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: In January, Turkey's official inflation was reported at 30.7%/yr. That's SIX TIMES HIGHER than the CBRT’s 5%/yr inflation target. Among other things, Turkey’s sky-high inflation is squeezing its famous TV dramas, which draw crowds of 1 billion+ worldwide. https://t.co/nr4JytEGeV
Start Building AI Now—No $10k Machine Needed
Alex bought a $10,000 Mac to run @openclaw with powerful local models. He isn’t alone. Know a guy with several NVIDIA H200’s in his house. Now that I am building I get it. Having your own local AI changes your whole approach...
AI Fluency Drives PR Evolution at FleishmanHillard
How AI Is Transforming The Communications Industry: Lessons From FleishmanHillard FleishmanHillard 's Ephraim Cohen reveals how the global #PR consultancy is democratizing #AI across its workforce through hands-on #training and integrated platforms, building #AIfluency among #communications professionals to navigate an...
State Firms Snap up Foreclosed Homes, Easing Oversupply
1/2 Reuters: "Chinese state-owned companies are buying foreclosed property projects, in a sign that long-promised government efforts to reduce massive oversupply in the crisis-hit housing sector are finally getting traction, albeit at a slow pace." https://t.co/Nk0gtgJVgr
PE Firms Chase Japan’s Retail Wealth Amid Institutional Decline
Our story on PE giants like Blackstone, KKR, EQT's attempt to tap Japan's wealthy retail investors for funds as institutional money wanes. Most see Japan as the largest private wealth opportunity outside of the US, but the market comes with...
China's Three-Year Deflation Signals Weak Money Supply
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In January, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -1.42%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HJkJ55fGfN
January Home Prices Slip Across All Chinese City Tiers
Xinhua: In four first-tier cities and 31 second-tier cities, the average month-on-month price declines in January were 0.3% for new homes and 0.5% for resold homes, while prices in 35 third-tier cities fell 0.4% for new homes and 0.6% for...
Higher CPI May Keep Fed From Cutting Rates, Threatening Stocks
Are stock markets in trouble if US CPI data points the Fed away from bolder interest rate cuts? #stockmarkets #CPI #Fed #DOLLAR #macro #trading https://t.co/2Ij9Tr0kWM
38% of Clients Drive 75% of Capitec Revenue
𝟯𝟴% 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝟳𝟱% 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗰’𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 Capitec’s interim results for the period ending August 2025 show a very clear picture of where the bank’s income is really coming from: 🔸Non-interest income = R13,358 bn 🔸Net interest income = R...
Asset Pricing's Biggest Unsolved Questions Still Challenge Economists
https://t.co/xnes97Kg4l A keynote speech on big questions in asset pricing -- still unresolved after decades, though much progress.