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Understanding China’s National Security Decisionmaking

In October 2020 Chinese officials feared a U.S. military move could spark a war to sway the U.S. presidential election, a concern later shown to be baseless but prompting high‑level U.S. reassurances. The episode illustrates how misperceptions can destabilize bilateral relations and underscores the challenge of decoding the People’s Republic of China’s security decision‑making. A new RAND paper offers U.S. policymakers a primer that applies a three‑element framework—information, analysis, and authorities—to map China’s decision ecosystem. By fostering strategic empathy, the authors argue the United States can better anticipate Chinese actions and reduce the risk of conflict.