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Export Bans that Weren't Really Bans: How Russia Kept Importing Military Goods

EU export bans targeting military‑relevant goods after Russia’s invasion were initially narrow, covering only specific product variants. Transaction‑level customs data show three evasion channels: partially sanctioned variants, transit shipments declared en route, and rerouting through third‑country hubs such as Turkey. While partially banned goods accounted for the largest share, rerouted flows peaked at $36 million per month in 2023, and the overall trade‑cost impact was a 19 % increase. Strengthening comprehensive bans and targeting intermediary hubs sharply reduced these flows by 2024.