Lemonade reported a blowout Q4 2026, posting $228.1 million revenue—a 50% year‑over‑year jump that beat consensus by 500 basis points. Gross earned premium rose 28% and in‑force premium climbed 31%, while free cash flow turned positive at $37 million, up 37%. Management forecast 2026 revenue of $1.187 billion, roughly 230 basis points above analyst expectations, and signaled profitability by year‑end 2026. The results have sparked a floor in the stock, setting the stage for a potential rebound amid high short interest.
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%

The February 2026 Global Oil Data Deck reveals that the worldwide liquids market, still heavily oversupplied, finally tightened in December—the first such move in six months—signaling the end of the most oversupplied year since 2020. Production fell in December mainly...
MetaQuotes will roll out build 5640 of its MetaTrader 5 platform on February 20, 2026. The update refines the dark interface theme, adjusting background, tab and scrollbar colours for a more cohesive visual experience. It adds Markdown support in MetaEditor, allowing developers to document...
Europe’s productivity lags far behind the United States, with EU real‑GDP growth averaging 1.3% since 2000 versus 2.4% in the US. The gap is driven by weak diffusion of IT and AI advances, which account for 25% of US growth...
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...

Dropbox reported FY2025 revenue of $2.5 billion, essentially flat year‑over‑year, while GAAP operating margin improved to 27.3% and non‑GAAP margin hit 40.6%. The company expects paying‑user growth to remain flat in FY2026, mirroring the prior year’s stability. Dropbox is banking on...

Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader...

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...

AngloGold Ashanti reported record free cash flow of $2.9 billion for 2025, driven by a 16% rise in gold production to 3.1 million ounces and a 45% increase in average gold price to $3,468 per ounce. The company declared an interim dividend...
The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) has elevated tungsten to a top‑5 candidate on its 2025 watchlist, citing China’s 80%‑plus production share and the lack of domestic U.S. sources. In the interview, Director Alastair Neill also highlighted copper, gallium, cobalt, uranium and...
Fastmarkets announced that the bauxite CIF China price assessment published on February 20 was invalidated due to a procedural error. The pricing database has been corrected, and the next release will occur on February 27, following the Chinese holiday calendar....

This OPEX is a fairly standard size OPEX, with about $600 bn on delta expiring. That's ~1/2 of a quarterly OPEX. You can see that calls and puts are relatively equal in size (right side), which makes sense based off...

Jim Cramer highlighted ten market catalysts for Friday, Feb 20, ranging from macro data to individual stocks. Weak Q4 GDP growth at 1.4% pushed futures lower, while Texas Roadhouse rallied over 3% on a strong Q1 outlook. GE Aerospace received a...
Ocean Alliance is injecting targeted capacity into Vietnam and Thailand in its Day 10 network update, turning ports like Haiphong and Laem Chabang into core deep‑sea origins. The shift adds four trans‑Pacific services to Haiphong and doubles West‑Coast sailings from Laem Chabang, while...

Europe faces its most serious security shortfall in decades as reliance on U.S. defense guarantees wanes. The article argues that strategic autonomy must include re‑engaging Turkey, NATO’s most capable land force and a pivotal regional actor. It highlights the Trump...

In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
Everyone has a BDC take this week. Most of them are wrong. If you don't understand how they trade, what drives the discount, or why NAV isn't what you think it is, start here. https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/the-bdc-primer-part-1

Airbus announced FY2025 results, delivering 793 commercial jets and generating €73.4 billion in revenue, a 6% year‑on‑year increase. Adjusted EBIT rose 33% to €7.1 billion, while net income grew 23% to €5.2 billion and EPS to €6.61. The order backlog hit a record...

Timken India reported a 14% YoY rise in Q3‑FY26 revenue to ₹764.3 crore, driven by strong performance across all segments. The Process segment led growth, jumping 24% YoY to ₹167 crore despite temporary cost pressures from the Bharuch plant ramp‑up. The broker...
Community Health Systems (CHS) announced it will decelerate its aggressive divestiture program as it focuses on strengthening core markets. The for‑profit hospital chain has cut its debt leverage to 6.6× in 2025, down from 7.4× the year before, and boosted...

The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) imposed a permanent Ultimate Designated Person (UDP) ban on Peter Michael Deeb, a Toronto dealer executive, after leveraged ETF trading and capital reporting failures caused a US$1.419 million realized loss. Deeb faces a $500,000 fine,...

The race to zero has hit a wall as the asset weighted average ETF fee has finally stopped its descent and even reversed a bit (this chart is one of the scariest, albeit slow moving ones for Wall St, equiv...

"...$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." @Spencerjakab https://t.co/dd4PRJs203 https://t.co/f2BPA4Qw7V

Broker Badri Narayanan rates Aadhar Housing a Buy, setting a target price of ₹650 versus the current ₹479.40. The firm projects a 20‑22% medium‑term AUM growth, aiming for a ₹50,000 crore portfolio within three years. A dual‑market model—urban “A” markets for...

Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...

Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5

The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...

US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v

$SPX.X $SPY Feb performance by day 100 years overlaid on MTD action of SPY https://t.co/x1W4uABOCj

Peter Lynch sat down for a reflective interview, reiterating his “invest in what you understand” mantra, while Berkshire Hathaway released its final 13‑F of the Warren Buffett era, showing modest portfolio tweaks—adding Chevron and Domino’s, trimming Apple and Bank of...
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Grinder on the short side of the Indices for several months. Short the rips, buy the dips... for now, Bill. @DougKass

Pending home sales in January 2026 fell 0.8% month‑over‑month, despite mortgage rates slipping to a six‑year low of 6.01% for the 30‑year fixed loan. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun notes that the rate drop makes 5.5 million households newly mortgage‑eligible, yet...
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....

The 🔵WTD ⚓️VWAP tells the story of the choppy week in $ES_F $SPY $NQ_F $QQQ https://t.co/ihrFlZV1FZ

Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) trades about a 25 % discount to NAV, reflecting its closed‑end, London‑listed structure and a portfolio of public equities that investors can replicate. The lack of daily redemption limits arbitrage, while a 1.5 % management fee and 16 %...
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%

In your inboxes this morning Nintendo: Are We Doing This Again? $NTDOY - No Wall Street handholding (holiday quarter results) - Hardware sales, then software sales, then profits - What about memory chips? - Is there still an emerging moat? - My investment decision https://t.co/6BIv63lDlJ

The U.S. Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced a proposed notice for Lease Sale Big Beautiful Gulf 3 (BBG3), slated for August 12, 2026. The sale would put roughly 15,066 offshore blocks covering 80.4 million acres on the market, with a...
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...

10 Friday AM Reads: -Netflix Calls Paramount's Bluff -401k Takeover: Private Equity Muscles In -Billionaires' Low Taxes' Problem for the Economy -Quiet Architect of Trump's Global Trade War -The End of the Office -The US Coup: One Year On -U2 Propaganda Days of Ash https://t.co/cSpLOtlpzu
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Tariff Decision Day?: The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first...

$SPX is still holding its channel, it’s an easy tape to overtrade, so stay selective and wait for clean setups. Key levels: support 6780–6790, yesterday’s low 6833, and pivot resistance 6909, with PCE and GDP on deck at 8:30. https://t.co/lvzBNkDdkK

Great meeting with PM @narendramodi today to talk about the incredible energy around AI in India. India is our fastest growing market for codex globally, up 4x in weekly users in the past 2 weeks alone. 🇮🇳! https://t.co/MRbw0UkotJ

The US is outgrowing everyone else and that'll stay that way into this year's midterms. So, for the Dollar to fall, you need a correlation break whereby strong US data cause USD to fall. This is how the Dollar traded...
Crude rallies to 7-month highs as market prices in the risk of US strikes on Iran. I spoke to @NDTVProfitIndia earlier today. https://t.co/NDv6pbwsZp

Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket