USA Crude Oil Stocks Drop 9MM Barrels WoW
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 9 million barrels in the week to Feb 13, leaving stocks at 419.8 million barrels—about five percent below the five‑year average. Total petroleum stocks also dropped 18.9 million barrels week‑on‑week, though they remain 62.9 million barrels above a year ago. Refinery utilization rose to 91 percent, with crude runs averaging 16.1 million barrels per day, while crude imports slipped 281,000 barrels per day. Analysts view the broad draw as a supportive signal amid geopolitical uncertainty.
US Q4 Growth Stalls at 1.4% Amid Shutdown
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
Dividends Are Taxed—High Earners Should Chase Growth, Not Yield
Just fyi: Even if you reinvest dividends, you still have to pay taxes on them. If dividends are qualified, you'll pay 0-23.8% in tax. If non qualified, you'll pay 0-40.8% tax, and state/local taxes. High earners shouldn’t chase high dividend funds. Focus on...
How Trump and Erdoğan Can Turn US LNG Energy Dominance Into Black Sea Stability
U.S. President Donald Trump is positioning a three‑party deal with Turkey and Ukraine at the June NATO summit to allow large‑scale U.S. LNG shipments through the Bosporus. Current Turkish regulations bar vessels over 200 m, preventing most U.S. LNG carriers from...
Adjusted Q4 GDP Shows Stronger Growth, Q1 Rebound Expected
Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annual rate in Q4. But the "truth" is better because shutdown-induced real Federal spending cut subtracted 1.15pp. Expect much of that to be added back in Q1. Consumer spending (+2.4%) and business fixed investment (+3.7%)...
Australia and Timor-Leste: A New Partnership for a New Era
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor‑Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão signed the Parseria Foun ba Era Foun declaration, establishing a new partnership built on three pillars – peace and regional integration, prosperity and resilience, and people‑to‑people links. The accord expands cooperation in security,...
Weak US Data, Traders Brace for Geopolitical Risk
US GDP, PCE comes in weaker, why no market reaction? Stocks remain lower. Gold is pushing higher. The dollar remains firm. Problem is - Traders are pricing in risk. With growing fears of a potential conflict over the weekend, positions are being...
Lemonade’s Sweet Results Refresh Market Appetite: Rebound Ahead
Lemonade reported a blowout Q4 2026, posting $228.1 million revenue—a 50% year‑over‑year jump that beat consensus by 500 basis points. Gross earned premium rose 28% and in‑force premium climbed 31%, while free cash flow turned positive at $37 million, up 37%. Management...
Core PCE Inflation Ends Year Elevated, Near 3%
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way. Annual growth rates. 1 month: 4.3% 3 months: 3.1% 6 months: 2.9% 12 months: 3.0%
Global Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 Global Oil Data Deck reveals that the worldwide liquids market, still heavily oversupplied, finally tightened in December—the first such move in six months—signaling the end of the most oversupplied year since 2020. Production fell in December mainly...
MetaQuotes to Release Build 5640 of MT5 Platform
MetaQuotes will roll out build 5640 of its MetaTrader 5 platform on February 20, 2026. The update refines the dark interface theme, adjusting background, tab and scrollbar colours for a more cohesive visual experience. It adds Markdown support in MetaEditor, allowing developers to document...
To Bridge the Transatlantic Productivity Divide, Europe Needs Structural Reforms—And AI
Europe’s productivity lags far behind the United States, with EU real‑GDP growth averaging 1.3% since 2000 versus 2.4% in the US. The gap is driven by weak diffusion of IT and AI advances, which account for 25% of US growth...
Historic Uncertainty Spurs Opportunities in AI and Energy Stocks
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Dropbox FY2025 - Flat Results and Guidance, Still Betting on Dash for Growth
Dropbox reported FY2025 revenue of $2.5 billion, essentially flat year‑over‑year, while GAAP operating margin improved to 27.3% and non‑GAAP margin hit 40.6%. The company expects paying‑user growth to remain flat in FY2026, mirroring the prior year’s stability. Dropbox is banking on...
Where Do India and Pakistan Stand in Kazakhstan’s Southward Connectivity Push?
Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader...
Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations. This marks a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in the preceding quarter and is the slowest expansion since...
AngloGold’s Earnings Benefit From Strong Production Growth
AngloGold Ashanti reported record free cash flow of $2.9 billion for 2025, driven by a 16% rise in gold production to 3.1 million ounces and a 45% increase in average gold price to $3,468 per ounce. The company declared an interim dividend...
Tungsten Breaks Into CMI Top 5 Consideration as Supply Risks Reshape the Critical Minerals Watchlist
The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) has elevated tungsten to a top‑5 candidate on its 2025 watchlist, citing China’s 80%‑plus production share and the lack of domestic U.S. sources. In the interview, Director Alastair Neill also highlighted copper, gallium, cobalt, uranium and...
Correction to Bauxite, CIF China Price on February 20
Fastmarkets announced that the bauxite CIF China price assessment published on February 20 was invalidated due to a procedural error. The pricing database has been corrected, and the next release will occur on February 27, following the Chinese holiday calendar....
Balanced OPEX Shows No Clear Call or Put Dominance
This OPEX is a fairly standard size OPEX, with about $600 bn on delta expiring. That's ~1/2 of a quarterly OPEX. You can see that calls and puts are relatively equal in size (right side), which makes sense based off...
Jim Cramer's Top 10 Things to Watch in the Stock Market Friday
Jim Cramer highlighted ten market catalysts for Friday, Feb 20, ranging from macro data to individual stocks. Weak Q4 GDP growth at 1.4% pushed futures lower, while Texas Roadhouse rallied over 3% on a strong Q1 outlook. GE Aerospace received a...
‘Targeted Injection of Capacity’ Into Vietnam, Thailand Reshapes Ocean Networks
Ocean Alliance is injecting targeted capacity into Vietnam and Thailand in its Day 10 network update, turning ports like Haiphong and Laem Chabang into core deep‑sea origins. The shift adds four trans‑Pacific services to Haiphong and doubles West‑Coast sailings from Laem Chabang, while...
European Security Needs Turkey
Europe faces its most serious security shortfall in decades as reliance on U.S. defense guarantees wanes. The article argues that strategic autonomy must include re‑engaging Turkey, NATO’s most capable land force and a pivotal regional actor. It highlights the Trump...
Copper: Imminent Supercycle or Mostly Hype?
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
Most Weekly BDC Discounts Are Mispriced—Learn Why
Everyone has a BDC take this week. Most of them are wrong. If you don't understand how they trade, what drives the discount, or why NAV isn't what you think it is, start here. https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/the-bdc-primer-part-1
Airbus Reports Full-Year (FY) 2025 Results
Airbus announced FY2025 results, delivering 793 commercial jets and generating €73.4 billion in revenue, a 6% year‑on‑year increase. Adjusted EBIT rose 33% to €7.1 billion, while net income grew 23% to €5.2 billion and EPS to €6.61. The order backlog hit a record...
Broker’s Call: Timken India (Accumulate)
Timken India reported a 14% YoY rise in Q3‑FY26 revenue to ₹764.3 crore, driven by strong performance across all segments. The Process segment led growth, jumping 24% YoY to ₹167 crore despite temporary cost pressures from the Bharuch plant ramp‑up. The broker...
CHS Could Slow Pace of Divestitures as It Makes Progress Paying Debt
Community Health Systems (CHS) announced it will decelerate its aggressive divestiture program as it focuses on strengthening core markets. The for‑profit hospital chain has cut its debt leverage to 6.6× in 2025, down from 7.4× the year before, and boosted...
CIRO Hands Toronto Dealer Exec Rare Permanent UDP Ban After US$1.4 Million Loss
The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) imposed a permanent Ultimate Designated Person (UDP) ban on Peter Michael Deeb, a Toronto dealer executive, after leveraged ETF trading and capital reporting failures caused a US$1.419 million realized loss. Deeb faces a $500,000 fine,...
ETF Fees Halt Decline as Higher‑cost Products Gain Traction
The race to zero has hit a wall as the asset weighted average ETF fee has finally stopped its descent and even reversed a bit (this chart is one of the scariest, albeit slow moving ones for Wall St, equiv...
U.S. Debt Surge Demands Immediate Fiscal Brake
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP
Broker’s Call: Aadhar Housing (Buy)
Broker Badri Narayanan rates Aadhar Housing a Buy, setting a target price of ₹650 versus the current ₹479.40. The firm projects a 20‑22% medium‑term AUM growth, aiming for a ₹50,000 crore portfolio within three years. A dual‑market model—urban “A” markets for...
First‑Round Knockout: YTD Dominance Over Competitors
CHART OF THE DAY: This Is A First Round Knockout, YTD We Are Crushing The Competition https://t.co/ohQwlRHqY4 via @hedgeye
US Stock Market Cap Only 12% of $7.7T
"...$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." @Spencerjakab https://t.co/dd4PRJs203 https://t.co/f2BPA4Qw7V
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
Core PCE Near Target; Fed Cuts Still Unlikely
Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it...
2025 GDP Volatile, PDFP Shows Steady Growth
Did 2025 feel like a wild ride? GDP feels your pain. The quarterly swings were big and short-lived. PDFP, which focuses on consumption and private fixed investment, showed more even, solid gains. https://t.co/LlVwQ7yna5
The Berkshire Beat: February 20, 2026
Peter Lynch sat down for a reflective interview, reiterating his “invest in what you understand” mantra, while Berkshire Hathaway released its final 13‑F of the Warren Buffett era, showing modest portfolio tweaks—adding Chevron and Domino’s, trimming Apple and Bank of...
US Underlying Domestic Demand Grew 2.4% in Q4
US GDP: A gauge of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending)—grew at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q4 https://t.co/XefZvVp18v
Current Feb Mirrors Century‑Long SPY Performance Trends
$SPX.X $SPY Feb performance by day 100 years overlaid on MTD action of SPY https://t.co/x1W4uABOCj
Despite U.S. Mortgage Rates Falling to 6 Percent, Homebuyers Remain Hesitant
Pending home sales in January 2026 fell 0.8% month‑over‑month, despite mortgage rates slipping to a six‑year low of 6.01% for the 30‑year fixed loan. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun notes that the rate drop makes 5.5 million households newly mortgage‑eligible, yet...
Inflation Surges, Growth Slumps: White House Economist Stumbles
Higher than expected inflation and lower than expected growth. what an ugly day for white house chief economist hassett and Trump narrative. Do not worry, CPI is out next week and that's easier to manipulate.
Short the Rips, Buy the Dips: Grinder’s Strategy
Grinder on the short side of the Indices for several months. Short the rips, buy the dips... for now, Bill. @DougKass
Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously....
VWAP Highlights Week-Long Choppiness Across Major Indices
The 🔵WTD ⚓️VWAP tells the story of the choppy week in $ES_F $SPY $NQ_F $QQQ https://t.co/ihrFlZV1FZ
Q4 GDP Misses, Core Inflation Surges Above Forecast
Q4 GDP prints at 1.4% vs expected 3% - Previously 4.4% December Core PCE at 3.0% vs Expected 2.9% - Previously 2.8% y/y Core PCE 0.4% m/m vs Expected 0.3% - Previously 0.2%
Nintendo's Q4: Hardware Leads, Moat Questioned
In your inboxes this morning Nintendo: Are We Doing This Again? $NTDOY - No Wall Street handholding (holiday quarter results) - Hardware sales, then software sales, then profits - What about memory chips? - Is there still an emerging moat? - My investment decision https://t.co/6BIv63lDlJ
Strong US Payrolls Can Depress Dollar, Boost Euro
On Aug. 3, 2012, Goldman put out a trade recommendation to go long Euro. The next day was US payrolls, which were stronger than expected. That caused Euro to jump and USD to fall. An example that strong US data...
Friday's Top Reads: Power Shifts Across Media, Finance, Politics
10 Friday AM Reads: -Netflix Calls Paramount's Bluff -401k Takeover: Private Equity Muscles In -Billionaires' Low Taxes' Problem for the Economy -Quiet Architect of Trump's Global Trade War -The End of the Office -The US Coup: One Year On -U2 Propaganda Days of Ash https://t.co/cSpLOtlpzu
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