Weekend Edition: From Dairy to Data: Can NZ Outgrow Australia’s Shadow?
In this episode, Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill dissect the widening gap between New Zealand and Australia as AI‑driven investment costs strain US markets and commodity prices slide, while the Aussie dollar weakens below 71 cents. They explore how rising AI spending, softer US CPI data, and divergent monetary stances—RBA’s focus on full employment versus the Fed’s disinflation path—are reshaping investor sentiment. Attrill highlights New Zealand’s potential to outpace Australia by leveraging data‑rich sectors like dairy and tech, but warns that higher capital costs and global volatility could temper that advantage.
HUL Shares Down 3% as Q3 PAT Falls 30% YoY to Rs 2,118 Crore
Hindustan Unilever reported a 30% YoY drop in Q3 profit from continuing operations, falling to Rs 2,188 crore, while total net profit surged 121% to Rs 6,603 crore due to one‑off portfolio transformation gains. Revenue from continuing operations rose 5.6% YoY to Rs 16,441 crore and...
Dow Slips Under 50,000, Erasing $1 Trillion
The DOW has fallen below 50,000 today. $1 trillion was wiped out from the US stock market. No one tell Pam Bondi.
CNOOC Targets 40% Offshore Wind Capacity Ramp up in 2026
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced a 40% increase in offshore wind capacity for 2026, targeting 3.5 GW of installed power. The expansion, executed with turbine maker Ming Yang Smart Energy, will roll out advanced turbines across southern provinces. Falling costs...
379. Squaring the Macro Circle, The Retail Rationalization, Multifamily Recalibration, & Lodging Capital Rotation
The episode dissects the widening gap between strong headline macro data and underlying economic softness, highlighting flat retail sales, surprisingly resilient job numbers, and BLS revisions that erased roughly 900,000 jobs. It examines a wave of retail store closures—including Eddie...
Appointment to the Monetary Policy Board
The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that Professor Bruce Preston has been appointed to the Monetary Policy Board, effective immediately. Preston brings a distinguished academic record and extensive experience in public‑policy economics. Governor Michele Bullock also thanked outgoing board member...
Trump’s Iran Remarks, Not IEA, Drive Oil Slump
A bit of a stretch, attributing crude’s slump on Thursday to the #IEA report. If the market thought a 4 million b/d glut would cushion any supply disruption/shock, including the one posed by current US-Iran tensions, Brent would not have been...
Value, Cyclicals, Small Caps Overtake Mega‑Cap Growth
Indexes look stable, but leadership is shifting. Value, cyclicals, and small caps are quietly taking the baton from mega-cap growth. This isn’t speculation; it’s a broadening market demanding cash flow and balance-sheet strength.
HUL Sees Demand Recovery as Rural, Urban Traction Improves; Q3 Volumes Rise 4%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) reported a 4% year‑on‑year sales‑volume increase in the December quarter, ending a period of flat growth. Operating margin slipped 70 basis points to 23.3% after labour‑code charges, yet stayed above the company’s 22‑23% guidance. Net profit...
US AI Sell‑off Drags Japan, Korea From Record Highs
Tech, AI-related selling in US having early impact on Japan -1.6% and S Korea -0.7% stock markets. Both coming off record highs. Spore was also at record high yesterday. Some negative headlines.
Mazda Malaysia Sales Dip, yet Bermaz Auto Shares Rise
The Mazda Malaysia January numbers were lower MoM but Bermaz Auto was still up on the news https://t.co/gI8pN0xr11
2026-02-13: India-US Interim Trade Deal Sparks Opposition Protests and Political Criticism
The episode examines the India‑US interim trade agreement, which has moved from a tariff announcement to a flashpoint in India’s February 2026 budget session. Opposition parties are framing the pact as a “trap deal,” launching parliamentary attacks and street protests...
US Must Secure Mineral Sources, Not Just Funding
You can’t stockpile what you don’t control. The easy part is $12 billion from the Trump Adminstration. The hard part is finding the mines, processing & pricing. Washington needs to build alliances instead of burning them. https://t.co/JfhrJs5VnH #CriticalMinerals #Geopolitics #China #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Mining #USPolicy
EIB's Grid Debt Shift Sparks Skepticism in Europe
The European Investment Bank plans to advance electricity capacity by moving grid debt off bank books & monetizing future revenues I'm not holding my breath. This is Europe, after all. https://t.co/UHQ7GprVvL #PowerGrids #EnergyInfrastructure #Europe #EIB #Electricity #EnergyTransition
How Russia Turns Gamers Into Fighters
Russia is actively weaponising video games to recruit foreign fighters and conduct cognitive warfare. Recent Bloomberg reporting details how Russian recruiters used milsim games like Arma 3 and Discord to lure two South African men, who later fought and died in...
Today's Sell‑off Feels Like a WallStreetBets Mockumentary
As causal narratives go, the one behind today's sell-off reads like it came out of the script for a Christopher Guest mockumentory. Think "Best in Show" meets r/Wallstreetbets. https://t.co/2HYvEmMpnC https://t.co/8KYvf56ooM
Inflation‑adjusted Dollar
A pet peeve. Talk about current dollar weakness. Numbers here are through December -- but in December the broad inflation adjusted dollar was stronger than in 01 or 02, the peak before 22-24 1/ https://t.co/c7KU9z1C6t
How Chipotle Lost Its Sizzle
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported its worst year on record, with same‑store sales slipping 2% in 2025 after a 7.4% gain the prior year. Net income held steady at $1.5 billion, while the stock fell 37% over the past twelve months. The...
Oil Inventories Rise, Distillate Falls Amid Mixed Market
A mixed week for the oil glut story CI rose but has fallen from its mid-January maximum U.S. comparative inventory rose 1.7 mmb for the week ending February 6 Crude C.I. rose 7.1 mmb, gasoline rose 1.0 mmb but distillate fell 2.4...
Asian Initial Thoughts: US Inflation, Markets Closed on Monday, Chinese House Prices & Loans
The episode outlines the upcoming Lunar New Year market closures across major Asian economies and the U.S. President’s Day holiday, forecasting lighter trading volumes. It highlights the imminent release of the Fed’s Miran speech and the China House Price Index,...
Trump Signals Interest in Iran Deal
In this episode, the host discusses President Trump's recent statements indicating a willingness to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran, including a timeline of about a month for talks. The conversation highlights the contrasting positions of Israeli Prime Minister...
China Mulls Blowing Aussie Property Into Space
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
Alphabet Q4: Search Rebounds 17%, Cloud Drives 48% Revenue
Alphabet Q4 2025: Search reaccelerated to 17%. Cloud hit 48% at 30% margins. Full breakdown live for SCIS members: https://steadycompounding.com/investing/alphabet-q4-2025/
TMTB EOD Wrap
The episode discusses the recent market downturn, highlighted by a 2% drop in QQQs, as AI disruption spreads beyond software and internet sectors into areas like property management and freight logistics. It examines how AI is turning into a net...
Exim Bank Offers B50bn Lifeline to Ailing Exporters
The Export‑Import Bank of Thailand unveiled a 50‑billion‑baht working‑capital facility to shore up exporters’ liquidity amid heightened global volatility. President Charat Rattanaboonniti said the bank will also provide export and foreign‑exchange insurance while urging firms to hedge currency risk with...
CPI Near 5‑Year Low: Trade Nasdaq Move Live
🔴 TOMORROW: US CPI drops at 8:30 AM Core forecast at a near 5-year low. Hot print → Nasdaq dumps Cool print → Rate cuts back on the table Either way, there's a trade to be made. Join me LIVE at 8AM ET to...
Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
DraftKings Stock Tumbles on New Full-Year Revenue Estimate
DraftKings' shares fell 13% after the company reported fourth‑quarter earnings and issued FY2026 revenue guidance that missed analysts' expectations. Revenue reached $2 billion, matching consensus, while earnings per share rose to $0.25 versus the $0.16 forecast. The 2026 sales outlook of...
Pilbara Killer Rises
The MacroBusiness note observes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) halted its decline amid political headlines, while the Australian dollar stayed firm despite broader risk aversion. Beijing is expected to intervene to limit further yuan gains, and the resilience of...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 13 February 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
The episode covers four major Asian market stories: Singapore’s 2026 budget under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, which projects a surplus, boosts AI investment, and offers household cost‑of‑living credits; the political fallout in the US as the House votes to overturn...
Spot Prices Wrap: Midwest Strength Fails to Offset Broad Spot Gas Weakness
Natural‑gas spot prices surged as freezing temperatures drove heating demand, but the rally was tempered by broader market weakness. Midwest hub prices posted gains, yet they were insufficient to lift the overall bias, which slipped lower across most regions. Forecasts...
January CPI Likely Spikes Amid Data Gaps
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
US Aims to Process Critical Minerals in Brazil
The United States is actively negotiating with Brazil to develop processing capacity for heavy rare earths, leveraging financing from the Development Finance Corporation. Recent DFC investments have backed the Serra Verde and Aclara rare‑earth projects, which together aim to boost...
James Zimmerman on How the US and China Can Make 2026 a ‘Year of Vision’
James Zimmerman has resumed his role as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, bringing nearly three decades of on‑the‑ground experience. He argues that the anticipated Trump‑Xi meetings in 2026 present a rare chance to pivot bilateral relations...
“Liberation Day” Interpreted Through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
Defensive REITs and Utilities Lead Market Breakouts
Ventas $VTR the Fin Prop REIT, eclipsing highs going back to 2013 as REITS start to kick into gear again with Utilities to join the recent strength seen in Staples, Telco @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Strength in these defensives is more than...
Roku Made Over $4.7 Billion in 2025
Roku reported $4.737 billion in net revenue for 2025, a 15% year‑over‑year increase, while streaming hours rose 15% to 145.6 billion. The company highlighted record‑breaking Premium Subscriptions net adds in Q4 and a 75% jump in Roku Sports sign‑ups. The Roku Channel...
Roku Sees Higher Revenue, Positive Net Income For 2025 As Platform Makes Gains
Roku reported a strong fourth‑quarter 2025, posting $1.5 billion in revenue—a 16% year‑over‑year increase—and its first positive net income of $80.5 million. Platform revenue surged 18% to $1.2 billion, driven by higher video‑ad sales and a record share of streaming minutes. The company...
Software Short‑squeeze Looms as Consumer Staples Pull Back
Whose ready for the short-squeeze in software over the next week because the 26 year-old analysts at the multi-platform funds convinced their PM's to go max short? Then we'll get the Consumer Staples pullback at the same time, when all the...
WTI Inventories Plunge 54%, Prices Push Toward Yellow Curve
WTI comparative inventory has decreased 14 mmb (54%) from its mid-January maximum $63.09 WTI was $6.50 > marginal price on the red yield curve the week ending February 6 Markets may be adjusting price upward toward the yellow yield curve #energy #OOTT #oilandgas...
Venezuelan Production Growth Inflated by Low Baseline
30-40% growth *from what baseline*?! Venezuelan production has been all over the map over the past few months—some very flattering base effects from which to cherry pick.
AI Hype Lags Behind Market Expectations
Our evening garage band - "AI Scare Trade" comes from the market. While swift, Taylor it's not.
Cuba's Socialist Crisis Drives 46% Inflation, Fourth Globally
#CubaWatch🇨🇺: Cuba’s socialist disaster produces an inflation rate of 46%/yr. That makes Cuba the WORLD’S FOURTH-HIGHEST INFLATOR. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Cuba. https://t.co/tNgaFALVro
KC Futures Hold Bull Run Midpoint Near
Don't do this to me...I need my coffee. KC futs have tentatively held up the midpoint of the 2023-2025 bull run (around 290) https://t.co/9M9FIFrM6A
S&P Slides, Apple & Cisco Plunge, VIX Tops 20
Tough session today. $SPX opened higher but rolled over hard. $AAPL -5% $CSCO -12% and the VIX closed back above 20. Meanwhile utilities and staples pushed higher. I walk through the key support levels and what breaks the trend next:...
Physical Possibility ≠ Economic Viability in Oil Markets
Again I’ll say: Virtually anything is physically *possible* in the oil market. Far fewer things are economically viable, let alone profitable. This is a nonsense take.
US Midwest Aluminum Premium Hits Record $1.03 per Pound
"Aluminum prices in the US have been rising faster than global prices for much of this past year because of tariffs. The so-called US Midwest premium...climbed to an all-time high of $1.03 a pound on Wednesday" https://t.co/lVUj91ooyh https://t.co/lIKmsxcJem
Billions in FX Options Expire at Key Rates Tomorrow
Notable FX option expirations tomorrow: 5.25 bln euros at $1.1850 $1.8 bln at JPY152.00 GBP530 mln at $1.36 https://t.co/JP6hOX0qdC
Tight Credit Spreads, Fast‑Food Struggles, Tariff Burden Revealed
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i
Tie US Aid to Venezuela Publishing Detailed
Secretary Wright, the only way to save Venezuela's oil industry—and I say this as an entirely disinterested party—is to tie any US support to reqs that the VZ oil ministry publicly publish regular, detailed oil industry statistics Simple bulk CSV file...