War News Fuels Reflexive Sell, Spurs Leveraged ETF Buying
Gamma. Roll delta flips, month end equity buying not needed as much given price, sudden massive leveraged ETF buying now needed. All this in an environment which makes folks think the war news is actually the thing driving markets. Creating a reflexive sell of vol, oil and additional bid for equities. Super fun. Great day at Dampedspring.
QQQ Dips Early, Aiming for 580 Rebound
we hit the $QQQ downtrend 1-2 days earlier than expected. hopefully today's move attracts more buyers tomorrow and we move to the 580s... https://t.co/8I8w79nBOT
Abysmal Hiring Rate Signals Housing Market Trouble
In other depressing news for the housing market, the hiring rate is abysmal. The hiring rate continues to be my key macro indicator for whether the housing market can recover this year. February looks bad. https://t.co/rdRsiAwAaR
Nifty50 Remains Bearish; Await Reclaim Before Longs
Nifty50 still in a clear bearish structure with consecutive lower highs and lower lows...Price is now interacting with the 22.2k..22.3k zone, but there’s no confirmed support yet. Intraday breach shows lack of demand at this level. >> Until we see acceptance...
Europe Must Ramp Up Defense as US Pulls Back
It's pretty obvious NATO is in serious trouble. US pulling back will force European Countries to bolster there own defences hugely. Keep holding those big Defence Stock positions :-)
Markets Await Direction as 5‑Day SMA Slides
Markets are deciding what is next at this important level of interest, the 🟠declining 5sma $SPY $QQQ $SMH $IWM https://t.co/gDrz6QdLec
Silver Open Interest Hits Historic Lows on COMEX, SHFE
Extremely Low Positioning: Both #COMEX and #SHFE #silver open interest are currently trading at the very bottom of their historical ranges
Gold Surges as War De‑escalation Rumors Emerge
Gold rallies on rumors of a potential off-ramp in a war. Markets never cease to surprise me…🤣🤣
Buyers Stay Out Until Affordability Drops Below 30%
When will homebuyers return to the U.S. Housing Market? When affordability hits the yellow line. Currently, the Mortgage Payment/Income Ratio is 36.5%, near the highest level on record, and comparable to the 2006 housing bubble. The long-term average is 30%, and it...
JPM’s PM Moves, Not Just Short Gamma, Drive
If you think the only thing that's happening on $JHEQX collar is short gamma you are completely missing what the PM at JPM was doing to roll the collar before the rip and what they now have to do.
Micron's Drop Stems From Unrelated Blog, Not Fundamentals
Micron hit $471 eight days ago on the best earnings in its history. Revenue tripled. HBM4 sold out. Guidance raised to $33B. Today it trades at $331 — down 30%. The reason? A Google blog post about a year-old compression...
Fiduciary Strategy Beats Products in High‑Net‑Worth Planning
Alejandro Hernandez recognized as a leading fiduciary advisor in New York City for advanced wealth and estate strategy. — In high-net-worth planning, strategy matters more than products. A fiduciary approach focuses on the full balance sheet— not just isolated investments. — Real estate....
Oil $100 Baseline Becomes Permanent After Iran Threat
WTI pre-market: $101.84. Brent: $108. Up 47% for the quarter. Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. That's not a negotiating position. It's a line in the sand with no realistic...
Iran's Hormuz Claim Locks in Permanent War Premium
$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84. $BNO Brent: $108. Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it. The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise. --- https://t.co/DwGuXTrsgJ
Market Underestimates Q2 Corn Usage for Seven Straight Years
Even more interesting. This was the 7th consecutive year that the market underestimated second quarter implied usage for corn. Hmmmmm.
Recognizing Supply Gaps Fuels Winners' Advantage Today
By no means does my post mean that "one green day" problem is solved, lol. Quite simply, this is the first day in a very long time that: 1. The gap isn't sold off and met with supply 2. Every swipe is not...
Stay Calm: Long-Term Value Beats Short-Term Panic
Warren Buffett reminds us that stocks might feel risky in the short term, but over the long run, they create real wealth. Even Berkshire Hathaway went through 50% drops, and Buffett stayed confident. Think like an owner, focus on value,...
Advanced Tax Models Target Zero‑Dividend Taxable Portfolios
How investors handle taxes: Level 1: look around at year end to see if there are any losses to harvest to cover gains. Level 2: move from mutual funds to ETFs. Level 3: asset location (account vs household for taxable and...
USDA Reports Lower-than-Expected Corn Acreage in May
Immediate report reaction: The acres weren't quite as expected, w/ most analysis pointing to lower corn acres. BUT has anything changed since USDA's survey, and by how much? This will be debated for the next 3 months, but these are...
Freddie Mac Index Slides; Punta Gorda, Austin Prices Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in February; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 23% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-8d1
Silverlake In‑Kind Distros Trigger One‑Day Dell Dip
You can blame Silverlake In Kind Distros for today's move down on $DELL specifically converting the B's to C's , only expected to be a one day, Qtr end event
Market Panic Eases as Sellers Cause Thin, Quick Swings
Feels like panic is gone (today so far) in market compared to prior days, still sellers present but as soon as sellers are done paper thin swipes back up. Next seller steps in, paper thin back up. Before it was...
Regional Banks Face $1.5T Real‑estate Maturity Crunch
CRE office delinquency: 12.34%. All-time high. Multifamily maturities in 2026: $162.1 billion. A 56% jump from last year. Total maturity wall: $1.5 trillion. Who holds the most concentrated exposure? Regional banks. The ones without the size or diversification to absorb a wave of...
Record Office Delinquency Signals Imminent Real Estate Debt Crisis
CRE office delinquency: 12.34%. All-time high. $162B in multifamily maturities in 2026 alone. Up 56% YoY. $1.5T maturity wall. Rising rates. Regional banks holding the bag. The next shoe isn't dropping. It's already laced up. --- https://t.co/GPSg1nlO6H
Selling QQQ $515 Puts Sets $495 Floor
Nasdaq (QQQ) 3250 September $515 puts sold to open $20.10, making $495 a floor level to eye later this year and even $515 itself is AVWAP off 2022 lows and long-term channel support https://t.co/AYJgeMyq8o
US Cotton Plantings Surpass Forecast, Small Grains Lag
U.S. cotton plantings came in larger than expected and above 2025's area. All small grain plantings came in below expectations. https://t.co/QomfLCsn7M
Funds Strive to Outdo FNMA's End‑Quarter Pump
Going to be tough to top $FNMA for "most blatant end of quarter" pump, but I see a few different funds are trying their best. God speed.
U.S. Wheat Plantings Hit Record Lows Since 1919
U.S. wheat plantings come in lower than analysts expected across all categories. 2026 all wheat acres are set to hit an all-time low in records back to 1919. Spring wheat acres are seen at a 56-year low. https://t.co/EX4kMnksdH
Iran War Spurs Debate Over 95M Corn Acres
Now let the debates begin whether we will actually plant over 95 million acres of corn with the change in input prices due to the Iran War
Integrate Law, Wealth, and Real Estate for Unified Strategy
Law. Wealth. Global Real Estate. At a certain level, these are not separate disciplines—they are one integrated strategy. Real estate is not just an asset. It is a legal structure. A tax position. A liquidity decision. A legacy vehicle. Wealth is not just...
Corn, Wheat Stocks Miss Forecast; Soybeans Exceed Expectations
U.S. March 1 corn and wheat stocks come in below trade expectations, soybeans come in above. https://t.co/99UWcvMgT6
S&P Must Clear
Above 6780-6800 and the uptrend gets back on track, but we have a few levels and averages to get through before that... $SPX $SPY $ES_F https://t.co/5uG7W6JG21
Adjust Prices Now: Buyers Sensitive to Cost Amid Rate Hikes
Buyers have lost purchasing power in recent weeks with higher rates, so adjust your price if needed. Sellers, this is so important to recognize. Buyers are hyper-sensitive about price, location, and condition, but they’re ready to act when the price...
Home Price Growth Stalls; Atlanta Joins Declining Markets
Home prices are only up 0.9% vs last year at this time. Essentially all markets have declining growth. 10 markets are now negative vs. Jan 2025. Atlanta is new to the list. Weakness on the West Coast in the period....
Save $17,000 on International Money Transfers
I sent $340k internationally over 2 years and paid $20,400 in fees. but i could have saved $17,000 of that. if you're moving money internationally, here's how you can save $17,000 in fees:
Markets in Correction: Dow Falls, S&P Below 200‑day MA
The Dow just entered correction territory. S&P 500 is 3.8% below its 200-day moving average. 5 straight weekly losses — longest streak since 2022. 3 of 4 intermarket signals say: get defensive. Full breakdown 👇 https://t.co/bFlg5yAcKY
Central Banks' Dollar Reserves Inch up, Growth Still Modest
Dollar reserves held by the world's central banks rose a bit in q4 -- But the broad story remains one of modest reserves growth relative to the global economy, or the pace of reserves growth from 03 to 13 1/ https://t.co/B7D4KndRLn
Stryker's 52‑week Low Signals a Buying Opportunity
Stryker hit a new 52-week low today. Going by the last 40 years, that means it's a buy. https://t.co/Dcwo43vFpe
USDA to Publish First 2026‑27 WASDE Balance Sheets May 12
USDA will release its first WASDE balance sheets for the 2026-27 marketing year May 12. It typically uses trend yields from its February Outlook Forum, and Planted Acres from its March planting intentions survey. As such, today's numbers should help...
USDA Data Expected to Surprise, Sets Baseline for Debate
There's a high likelihood of surprises from USDA today, and the acreage numbers will likely change by the June survey. But at least it will provide a baseline for the debate that will continue until January. #oatt
OPEC's Monthly Production Decline Hits Ugly Levels
Now we start getting the monthly average OPEC production numbers. And boy, oh boy, are they UGLY. Reminder: this is the *average* production decline m/m, the exit loss is even larger and that's where we'll land in the April data if this...
Q1 Shift: Energy Soars, Tech Slumps Amid Scarcity
Q1 rotation in one line: Energy +20%. Tech -4.2%. That's 24 percentage points of spread in a single quarter. The January consensus — AI boom, rate cuts, growth leads — was completely wrong. Q1 repriced around scarcity, geopolitics, and commodity supply chains. Money moved...
Energy Surges, Tech Slumps: Market Signals Survival Mode
Q1 rotation: $XLE +20%. $QQQ -4.2%. Money is moving FROM innovation TO survival. That's not a style rotation. That's the market telling you what it believes about the economy. When energy beats tech by 24 points in a quarter, listen. --- https://t.co/SxMLhgCbeX
Australia’s Jet Fuel Crisis Deepens as China Ban Hits 30%
Australia (which has declared a national fuel supply disruption) is deeper in to its jet fuel crisis 🚨 - For now, emergency supply is being routed from l US through the Panama Canal to Melbourne, Perth - but the route *cannot*...
Start Early: Small SIP Beats Bigger Late Investment
🧵 Story of 2 friends: Engineer vs Doctor (12% math included) Rohit (engineer) starts a SIP of ₹3,000/month at age 23. At 12% for 15 years → grows to ₹15 lakhs. Aarav (doctor) starts ₹10,000/month at 33. At 12% for 5 years → only...
NY Fed Custodial Treasury Holdings Drop Significantly
The FT has a good article on the recent fall in the Treasuries held by the New York Fed's custodial account 1/ https://t.co/q3XrJ1bvlZ
Indonesia Reinstates B50 Biodiesel Blend Amid War Risks
🇮🇩Indonesia will raise the blending rate for palm-based biodiesel to 50% (B50) from the current B40 on July 1, despite having scrapped this plan two months ago due to supply concerns. But war risks are now at the forefront. Indonesia is...
S&P 500 EPS up 7% YTD, Margins Hit Record Highs
S&P 500 12-month EPS is up about 7% YTD, with half of that coming once the war started. Profit margins have hit new highs as well, not necessarily end of world stuff here. https://t.co/O1CvyznyMm
Printing Money Fuels Borrowing, Creates Financial Bubbles
When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “Principles for Dealing with the...
Yen Support Aims to Cool Dollar, Delay Iran Risk
The vol controllers are definitely trying to strengthen the Yen here to make the US dollar go lower. They know the USD wrecking ball was at a point it was about to wreak havoc if it broke higher. JPY/USD most important currency...